FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT GBP\/USD<\/h2>\n
The <\/span>Bank of England (BoE)<\/span> interest rates were expected to rise <\/span>50 bps<\/span> derived mainly from the international pressures of the <\/span>Federal Reserve<\/span> and more recently some ECB speakers. ECB Kazaks announced that the <\/span>ECB<\/span> it would have to keep raising rates to keep up with inflation. <\/span><\/p>\n ECONOMIC CALENDAR GBP\/USD<\/span><\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Source: <\/span>DailyFX Economic Calendar<\/span><\/p>\n INFLATION FORECASTS<\/span><\/p>\n At the <\/span>inflation<\/span> First, the October 2022 forecast has been revised higher from 11% to 13.3%, while the BoE forecasts a recession in 4Q 2022 for a duration of 5 quarters. With the highest <\/span>interest rate<\/span>pressure on the consumer will increase especially in the mortgage space, as will its effect on retail sales and consumer spending. <\/span><\/p>\n Looking ahead, money markets still expect further rate hikes, but with the constant threat of an energy crisis and fears of a global recession could see a rapid reduction in rate hikes, which is feasible given that the BoE was the first major central bank to raise rates. <\/span><\/p>\n BOE INTEREST PROBABILITY<\/span><\/p>\n Source: <\/span>refinitive<\/span><\/p>\n GBP\/USD<\/span> DAILY GRAPH<\/span><\/p>\n Picture made by <\/span>Warren Venketas<\/span>,<\/span> GI<\/span><\/p>\n GBP\/USD Daily <\/span>price action<\/span> reacted negatively to the news. I guess this is mostly from the recession declaration, but a backlash to a 50bp hike has not been uncommon around the world. This pound is certainly trending lower as external global factors grow in influence.<\/span><\/p>\n Key resistance levels:<\/span><\/p>\n 1.2400\/100 day EMA (yellow)<\/span>50-day EMA (blue)<\/span><\/p>\n Key levels of support:<\/span><\/p>\n 1.2080\/<\/span>20-day EMA (purple)<\/span><\/p>\n IG Customer Sentiment<\/span> Data (IGCS) shows that retail traders are currently <\/span>LONG <\/span>activated <\/span>GBP\/USD<\/span>with <\/span>70%<\/span> of traders currently holding long positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we usually take a contrary view to crowd sentiment, but due to recent changes in long and short positions, we are taking a cautious short-term bias.<\/span><\/p>\n Contact and follow Warren on Twitter: <\/span>@WVenketas<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n element within element. Surely this is not what you wanted to do! Instead, you load your application’s JavaScript package inside the element. ![\"BoE](\"https:\/\/a.c-dn.net\/b\/1ZHYnI\/British-Pound-GBP-Breaking-News-BoE-Hikes-by-50bps-Highest-in-27-Years-WV_body_c.png.full.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a><\/p>\nTECHNICAL ANALYSIS<\/h2>\n
<\/a><\/p>\nMIXED FEELING FROM THE IG CUSTOMER<\/h2>\n