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FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT OF THE DOLLAR<\/h2>\n
“The all-items index rose 5.0 percent in the 12 months to March, the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending in May 2021.”<\/span><\/p>\n US CPI data missed headline estimates (see economic calendar below), while core inflation excluding food and energy rose to 5.6%<\/span> reflecting the inflationary pressures of the service sector. Major contributors to the core inflation figure include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, airfares, home furnishings and operations, and new vehicles; while the health care index and the used car and truck index were among those that declined during the month – Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/span>.<\/p>\n US ECONOMIC CALENDAR<\/p>\n <\/a><\/p>\n Source: <\/span>DailyFX Economic Calendar<\/span><\/p>\n Fed funds futures (see table below) have fallen in terms of overall conviction for a 25 bps<\/span> interest rate hike in May to 67%<\/span> of approximately 74%<\/span> pre-ICP The call for a further rate hike in June is losing steam and it looks likely that the terminal rate will peak. 5%<\/span> for the current voltage cycle. Given the recent banking crisis and tight credit conditions, another headline beat may have added to the already tough environment for the Federal Reserve. That said, the day doesn’t end there, as the FOMC minutes from the previous meeting are due and could give us more insight into the Fed’s thinking going forward.<\/p>\n Trade Smarter – Sign up for the DailyFX newsletter<\/p>\n Receive timely and compelling market feedback from the DailyFX team<\/p>\n Subscribe to the newsletter<\/p>\n PROBABILITIES OF RAISED RATES FROM THE FED<\/p>\n Source: Refinitiv<\/span><\/p>\n DAILY CHART OF THE AMERICAN DOLLAR INDEX<\/p>\n Picture made by <\/span>Warren Venketas<\/span>GI<\/span><\/p>\n The daily chart of the dollar index (DXY) sold off immediately after the release of inflation towards 101.42<\/span> low swing, with 101.00 h<\/span> Psychological support is very much a possibility before the opening of the US trading session.<\/p>\n Resistance levels:<\/span><\/p>\n Support levels:<\/span><\/p>\n — Written by Warren Venketas for DailyFX.com<\/span><\/p>\n Contact and follow Warren on Twitter:<\/span>@WVenketas<\/a><\/p>\n element within element. Surely this is not what you wanted to do! Instead, you load your application’s JavaScript package inside the element. ![\"image2.png\"](\"https:\/\/a.c-dn.net\/b\/00obXZ\/image1.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a><\/p>\nTECHNICAL ANALYSIS<\/h2>\n
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