{"id":33061,"date":"2023-07-24T07:59:37","date_gmt":"2023-07-24T07:59:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news24feed.com\/?p=33061"},"modified":"2023-07-24T07:59:41","modified_gmt":"2023-07-24T07:59:41","slug":"terrible-german-pmi-pushes-eur-usd-below-1-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news24feed.com\/?p=33061","title":{"rendered":"Terrible German PMI pushes EUR\/USD below 1.11"},"content":{"rendered":"

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DEBIT POINTS AND EUR\/USD ANALYSIS<\/h2>\n

German PMI is a cause for concern for the eurozone. ECB under pressure to revise rate forecasts. 1.10 close for bears.<\/p>\n

\nRecommended by Warren Venketas\n<\/p>\n

Get your free Euro forecast\n<\/p>\n

FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT OF THE EURO<\/h2>\n

The euro’s recent struggles worsened this morning after German HCOB PMI data (see economic calendar below) missed on all fronts, with manufacturing contracting even higher, while services (the country’s biggest contributor to GDP) fell to 52<\/span> but remaining within the expansive territory. With Germany being the largest economy in the Eurozone, it serves as a proxy for the region and with similar figures reflected by the French release, the EZ data to come is likely to echo this sentiment. Some important comments from the report include (Source: S&P Global):<\/p>\n

“New services businesses fall for first time in six months.” “There is a greater likelihood that the economy will be in recession in the second half of the year.” “The composite index moved into contraction territory below 50 for the first time since January.” “The pace of employment growth in the German private sector slowed sharply in July.”<\/p>\n

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR EUR\/USD (GMT +02:00)<\/p>\n

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Source: <\/span>DailyFX Economic Calendar<\/span><\/p>\n

The next decision by the European Central Bank (ECB) on interest rates this week will have to take into account these data and the rapid slowdown in economic data. Although I do not expect a change in current market prices (see table below) that favors a 25 bps<\/span> walk with almost 100%<\/span> Certainly, further guidance from then on may begin on a peaceful trajectory that could further expose the euro.<\/p>\n

Basic knowledge of trade<\/p>\n

Macro basics<\/p>\n

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Recommended by Warren Venketas\n<\/p>\n

PROBABILITY OF INTEREST RATES FROM THE EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK<\/p>\n

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Source: Refinitiv<\/p>\n

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS<\/h2>\n

EUR\/USD DAILY CHART<\/p>\n

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Picture made by <\/span>Warren Venketas<\/span>GI<\/span><\/p>\n

The EUR\/USD daily price action has maintained its bearish course now below the 1.1096\/1.1100<\/span> zone ahead of the long-awaited ECB rate decision. With more scope for a favorable re-rating from the ECB relative to the Fed, the pair could extend its downside towards the 1,1000<\/span> psychological support management.<\/p>\n

Resistance levels:<\/span><\/p>\n

Support levels:<\/span><\/p>\n

IG CUSTOMER SENTIMENT DATA: BASSIST<\/h2>\n

IGCS shows that retail traders are currently SHORT<\/span> in EUR\/USD, with 65%<\/span> of traders currently holding short positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX we normally take a contrary view to the crowd sentiment, but due to recent changes in long and short positioning we come to a bearish bias in the short term.<\/p>\n

Contact and follow Warren on Twitter:<\/span>@WVenketas<\/a><\/p>\n

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