Small donations equal a big trend: Experts predict small donors will play a big role in the 2024 election

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FILE – In this June 15, 2018, file photo, cash is taken out of a wallet. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola, file)

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FILE – In this June 15, 2018, file photo, cash is taken out of a wallet. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola, file)

Donors who make more small donations continue to play an increasingly important role in financing major political campaigns, such as next year’s presidential election, national trends seen in recent election cycles and in Columbus.

Small-dollar donations, or contributions of $200 or less, have increased in recent federal election cycles, accounting for 18 percent of all political donations during the 2022 midterm elections, according to an analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics, a non-partisan inquiry. group that monitors the role of money in politics.

At the same time, the amount of money poured into federal elections has soared, reaching $8.9 billion in the 2022 midterm elections, up from the inflation-adjusted $3.5 billion spent in midterm elections from 2002.

Columbus has also seen an influx of small-dollar donations in federal elections.

In the 2022 midterm elections, city residents made 20,469 contributions of $200 or less to candidates or political action committees, compared with 20 such contributions in the 2002 midterm elections, they show federal campaign finance documents.

In the 2002 midterm elections, only 5 percent of Columbus residents’ contributions were $200 or less, according to federal records. Over the next two decades, that figure rose to just over 96%.

That wave of small donations, which averaged just $12.50 during the last election cycle, helped push political spending in Columbus to nearly $1.13 million in the midterm elections in 2022, a record for a midterm election and more than the inflation-adjusted $376,071. in the 2002 midterm elections, when the average contribution amount was an inflation-adjusted $813.

And the same trends are being observed in the presidential elections.

In the 2020 presidential election, small donors in Columbus opened their checkbooks more often than ever, making a record 32,822 contributions of $200 or less. By comparison, there were only 39 such contributions during the close presidential race between former President George W. Bush and former Vice President Al Gore in 2000.

In total, Columbus residents made $1.97 million in political contributions for the 2020 presidential election, with donations of $200 or less accounting for 96% of all contributions, a dramatic increase from around of 8% of all contributions in the year 2000.

However, these numbers likely do not represent a complete picture of small-dollar donations, as federal candidates are only required to make a “best effort” to obtain information on contributors who donate more than $200, including their addresses, according to the Federal Electoral Commission. .

“Our federal elections are seeing an increase in small donor participation,” said Pete Quist, deputy director of research at the Center for Responsive Politics. “… We have been seeing this trend for a few years now. In 2016, we started to see a big commitment from small donors, but this has continued through the 2018 and 2020 elections and through 2022, each year’s election resulted in a larger share of contributions coming from largely from small donors. This is affecting both Republicans and Democrats and incumbents and non-incumbents alike.

“The reason I would expect (the trend) to continue is because it has been so pronounced over the last few years,” he added.

Media, technology and polarization

Experts say the sharp increase in contributions from small donors in federal elections is fueled in large part by an evolving media landscape that emphasizes national politics and technological advances that have made it easier for people to send money to campaigns and political action committees.

These changes have coincided with a dramatic transformation in the way local residents participate financially in federal elections.

In an era when most American households don’t have a landline and more Americans stream TV than watch cable, campaigns have turned to social media and other data sources to send text messages and emails soliciting contributions into the pockets of people who believe. will be more likely to give money.

In addition, both major parties have created online platforms — WinRed for Republicans and ActBlue for Democrats — that are designed to make it easier for people, including small-dollar donors, to contribute to campaigns. The two platforms have raised nearly $1.17 million combined in Columbus since their inception, federal records show.

“You have these platforms that allow for very small contributions and make it easy and really target grassroots donor support, plus the fact that people who are new to politics who aren’t wealthy individuals can start by getting involved with small contributions,” Quist said. “…Often, (platforms) will try to get a small dollar donation on a recurring basis. You’ll end up with a contributor making multiple $5 donations.”

Other experts, including Marjorie Hershey, professor emeritus of political science at Indiana University, also attribute some of the increase in small donor participation to political polarization that has increased to such a level that “a lot of people see the candidates of the other party.” not just as unattractive but as hostile and threatening.”

“We have a very polarized electorate right now, and that motivates a lot of people to feel that if the other party wins, it’s not just something that can be changed later, it’s a disaster,” said Hershey, who has studied political parties. and campaigns “So they’re more likely to give money.”

In addition, experts say, a media environment in which Americans increasingly consume news about national politics, rather than local or state politics, has led to what Quist described as “the nationalization of (political) news “.

“You’re going to see a lot of election coverage for elections that aren’t in your state,” Quist said. “If you look at national news, for example, there’s now a 24-hour news cycle that’s been growing in intensity for many years, and that’s helping people get more involved with what’s going on to politics”.

Columbus residents have been more interested in out-of-state elections than in the past, making 178 contributions totaling about $12,511 to the campaigns of Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Georgia, and GOP challenger Herschel Walker in last year’s Senate race. Georgia

At the same time, “the media has also become polarized,” with an increasing number of outlets “just taking sides” to the point that “it’s now possible for people to buy into news stories that reflect a point of view. view”. Hershey said.

“That’s why people can get really excited because these news sources can increase their audience or their readership by exciting their audience and making them feel that every other news source is wrong and illegitimate.” Hershey said.

“There are a lot of people who have come to hate the other party more than they hate their own party, and that tends to spur increased giving, especially from small donors,” Hershey added.

Local officials of the parties

Local and current party leaders attributed much of the increase in small-dollar donations in Columbus to changes in technology that have made it “so easy for you to give online or on social media.”

Bartholomew County Democratic Party Chairman Ross Thomas said the increase in small-dollar local contributions is likely related to a greater focus on national issues among segments of the population. In addition, he said the use of social media and targeted text messaging by the two main national parties is also playing a role.

“I think it’s the use of social media by national parties and national candidates, especially targeted texting and that kind of thing,” Thomas said. “You can really micromanage who your audience is. I think parties and campaigns have figured that out. People are bombarded with emails and texts and social media (posts), and it’s easy to click and give to someone.”

Bartholomew County Republican Party Chair Luann Welmer said she would attribute the increase in small-dollar contributors, at least in part, to local Republicans feeling more energized, pointing to increased attendance at local GOP events recently .

“I feel like people want to see change, they want to see our conservative values ​​shared, and they know they have to get involved to make that happen,” Welmer said.

Welmer also said he expects to see a lot of energy for GOP candidates running for federal office in next year’s election, but “I think it depends on who our candidates are.”

Former Bartholomew County Republican Party Chair Barb Hackman said part of the increase in small donors in Columbus during the last presidential election could also be attributed to the fact that Columbus native Mike Pence was the Trump’s candidate.

“A hometown guy was our vice president,” Hackman said. “I’m sure that played a big part in the contributions.”

Fundraising 2024

Currently, local contributions for the 2024 presidential election are down substantially compared to the same point in the 2020 race, federal records show.

However, election experts say most people, especially small donors, don’t usually get involved in a presidential race until after an election year.

Former President Donald Trump recently saw a notable spike in contributions to his bid for the White House after he said in a post on his social media platform in March that he expected to be arrested as part of an investigation into the hush money payments made to women he is accused of. have relations with

In March, the Trump campaign received $66,927 from Hoosiers, more than double the $30,584 in February and $37,056 in January.

Trump also saw a notable spike in contributions on March 30, the day he was indicted, when his campaign reported $15,511 in contributions from Indiana residents, the highest single-day total this year. Before his indictment, the previous day’s high in Indiana was $3,654.

The most recent data available goes to the end of March, before President Joe Biden formally announced he will seek re-election next year.

Meanwhile, experts say they still expect recent trends in fundraising and polarization to continue into the 2024 election.

“I don’t think there’s much doubt (that these trends will continue into the 2024 election),” Hershey said. “It is very difficult to see how we overcome this polarization. … On the one hand, we would like to have less conflict, but on the other hand, we are often surrounded by messages that are one-sided and lead us to feel more conflicted, more involved in the conflict. So it’s hard to see how that changes.”

“It probably only changes at the local level, when people get involved in community service and various activities that help them see that people on the other side are not demons, but also have a desire to help the community.” , Hershey added.



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