CNN
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Dangerous and record-breaking heat waves will increase as the climate crisis intensifies, and will be particularly devastating in countries and regions that are least prepared for them, according to a new report. to study.
The scientists analyzed temperature data sets spanning more than 60 years, as well as climate models, to calculate the likelihood of unprecedented heat extremes occurring and where they might occur.
They identified Afghanistan, Papua New Guinea and Central America, including Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, as “hot spots” for high-risk heat waves.
These regions are particularly vulnerable because of their rapidly growing populations and limited access to health care and energy supplies, which undermine their resilience to extreme temperatures, according to the report, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications .
“There is evidence that these regions may be in for a major heat wave and they wouldn’t be prepared for it,” said Dann Mitchell, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Bristol in the UK and co-author of the study. . .
The threat facing Afghanistan is particularly stark, Mitchell told CNN. Not only is there great potential for record-breaking extreme heat, but the impacts will be intensified by the enormous hardships the country already faces, he said.
Afghanistan is struggling with serious social and economic problems. It also has a growing population that is increasingly exposed to the problems of limited resources, according to the report.
“When an extreme heat wave finally hits, then there’s going to be a lot of problems instantly,” Mitchell said.
Heat waves have a wide negative impact. They reduce air quality, worsen drought, increase the risk of wildfires and can cause infrastructure to collapse.
They also affect human health and extreme heat is one of the deadliest natural disasters. Heat stroke or heat exhaustion can trigger a wide range of dangerous symptoms, including headaches, dizziness, nausea and loss of consciousness, among others. Heatstroke is the most serious heat-related illness, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Preventioncausing body temperature to soar within minutes and can lead to permanent disability or death.
Several regions have already experienced unprecedented temperatures this year. In March, parts of Argentina battled temperatures up to 10 degrees Celsius, or 18 degrees Fahrenheit, above normal, while high temperature records were broken across much of Asia in April .
“Heat waves and other extreme weather events will only become more intense as the world continues to burn fossil fuels,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. , who did not participate in the study.
Nowhere is safe, noted the report, which found “statistically implausible” heat waves that fell well outside the historical norm. – occurred between 1959 and 2021 in around 30% of the assessed regions. These include the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat wave, where high temperature records were not only broken, but completely broken, killing hundreds of people.
In Lytton, British Columbia, temperatures peaked at just under 50 degrees Celsius (121 degrees Fahrenheit) in June 2021, breaking the previous record of almost 5 degrees. The village was almost completely destroyed by a forest fire a few days later.
Scientists determined that the event would have been nearly impossible without climate change.
According to the report, parts of China, including Beijing, and European countries, such as Germany and Belgium, also face a high risk.
The millions of people living in these densely populated regions could be hit hard by heat waves, even if those countries are more likely to have the resources to mitigate some of the worst impacts.
The report calls on governments around the world to prepare for heat events that go well beyond the current record temperatures, including building cooling centers and reducing hours for those who work outside.
There are many policies that governments can implement to save lives, Otto said, including “preparing heat wave management plans, ensuring and testing that they are implemented, informing the public about impending heat waves and protecting people vulnerable to the impacts of heat waves”. ”
Unprecedented heat events are becoming more likely as the world continues to burn fossil fuels, said Harvard University researcher Lucas Vargas Zeppetello, whose 2022 research found that dangerous levels of heat will triple as minimum worldwide at the end of the century.
“By definition, we don’t know what might happen if large populations are exposed to unprecedented heat and humidity stress,” Vargas Zeppetello told CNN, “but heat waves in recent decades have already been extremely deadly and there a serious cause for concern in the future.”
