The mess at the border continues to benefit Trump.
Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images
Of all the issues that fueled Donald Trump’s unlikely takeover of the Republican Party in 2016, immigration and the closely associated feelings of xenophobia were arguably the most important. Yes, many rank-and-file Republicans, especially in the increasingly dominant category of non-college-educated white voters, were then unhappy with the “globalist” trade policies and “forever wars” associated with their party’s presidential and congressional leaders . , along with his ongoing efforts to undermine the wildly popular federal retirement programs. Trump reveled in all this alienation. But before his arrival as a politician, there was an even stronger grassroots revolt against him liberalized immigration policies associated with George W. Bush and 2008 presidential candidate John McCain. The ugly racist side of anti-immigrant sentiment was illustrated by the “birther” conspiracy theory that was Trump’s ticket to credibility as a potential presidential candidate, with its suggestion that illegal immigrants law brunettes entering the United States had a champion in a brunette intruder in the Blanca. house
Eight years later, Trump is engaged in a comeback effort, and this time he no longer has to persuade Republicans to oppose anything like liberalized immigration and asylum policies. His rivals for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination ranted about the “border crisis” just like he did. The big question now is whether anti-immigrant sentiment has now spread across the electorate to the point where tough nativist rhetoric will become a huge asset for Trump (or whoever the Republicans nominate) against Joe Biden, the party of which he is divided and on the defensive before the subject.
That could definitely be the case. Gallup reports that “Americans’ satisfaction with the level of immigration in the US has fallen six percentage points over the past year, from 34% in January 2022 to 28% today. That’s the lowest reading in a decade.” 40 percent of Americans want to see lower levels of immigration, the highest number since the days immediately after 9/11. The trend is evident across all party affiliation groups:
The percentage of Republicans dissatisfied with immigration levels being too high rose from 40 percent in 2021 to 69 percent in 2022 and remains about the same today at 71 percent. The percentage of Democrats who are dissatisfied and want less immigration was almost non-existent in 2021, at 2%, before rising to 11% last year and 19% now. Independents’ dissatisfaction with and preference for less immigration has doubled since 2021, from 19% at the time to 36% today.
This trend is likely to intensify if the expiration of policies related to COVID allowing the rapid deportation of migrants ultimately spurs a new influx of border crossings, as most observers expect, just as the 2024 election cycle begins.
What has happened, of course, is that the immigration debate in America has evolved from being primarily about how to deal with undocumented Americans already living and working in the United States (and the subcategory especially worthy of “Dreamers” introduced to the country). of children) to a headline-driven “crisis” over the influx of would-be immigrants, especially those seeking refugee status, across the southern border. Even Americans who sympathize with migrants are likely to be troubled by the apparent disarray in the processing of immigration claims, with the subsequent “release” of many awaiting adjudication in the border regions of the US and the decrease in the number of unaccompanied minors and even families entering the country during the most recent wave of refugee claims may further reduce sympathy for migrants.
More politically, this is becoming an issue on which Republicans are energized and united while Democrats wonder whether the Biden administration knows what it’s doing or simply wants to shift the debate to focus on more palatable issues. A good sign of the political challenge to the Democrats is that they have been losing their share of Latino voters (according to exit polls, it has dropped from 71 percent in 2012 a 60% by 2022) although the opposition has become more openly nativist.
Obviously, it would help Democrats if Biden can better manage the border situation while drawing renewed attention to the need for comprehensive immigration reform. But for now, Trump’s demagoguery on the issue is receiving less pushback than ever from Republican elites, and by 2024 immigration may no longer be a fringe “grassroots mobilization” issue raised mostly at rallies of the MAGA. It could become a wedge issue with swing voter appeal, turning Trump’s original sin into a political virtue.
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