Qatar loses diplomatic clout as Saudi influence grows Doha-based diplomatic mission in Syria Revolutionary embassy only Arab leaders to host Assad government at Friday summit
DOHA, May 18 (Reuters) – The Arab League’s welcome of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad into its ranks highlights how far behind Qatar has fallen in its bid to be a diplomatic voice that has weight in the Middle East.
Earlier this month, Qatar reluctantly withdrew its opposition to Saudi Arabia’s initiative to readmit Syria. He made clear that he was opposed to normalizing his own ties with Damascus, but said he would not stand in the way of an Arab consensus.
The dismay at the diplomatic mission in Doha of a Syrian opposition group, which Qatar recognizes as Syria’s official embassy in the state, was a stark reminder of the changing tides.
“Qatar did not accept this decision, but they did not stand in the way,” Belal Tourkya, the mission’s charge d’affaires, told Reuters.
Analysts say the shift in Doha’s stance on Syria is a sign it may be reversing its once-ambitious regional foreign policy to avoid angering its more powerful neighbors.
Assad is expected to attend the Arab League summit in Jeddah on Friday for the first time in 12 years, a powerful signal that his regional isolation over Syria’s civil war is ending.
Saudi Arabia used its influence over Arab League members to push them to return Syria to the body, said Giorgio Cafiero, managing director of Gulf State Analytics.
“Qatar did not want to play any obstructive role that would have risked angering the leadership in Riyadh and other Arab capitals,” he said.
Qatar has been steadily improving ties with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
In early 2021, they agreed to end a 3 1/2-year boycott of Qatar imposed over allegations that Doha supported terrorism, a broad allusion to Islamist movements. Qatar denies the charges.
Qatar’s support for pro-democracy movements and rebels in Syria and elsewhere such as Egypt and Libya after the 2011 Arab Spring had angered its neighbors.
Fueled by gas wealth, it has played an outsized role in global affairs.
It hosts US troops, funds the influential Al Jazeera news network and mediates in conflicts. Last year’s soccer World Cup was seen as a showcase for soft diplomacy.
But in recent weeks, Qatar has had little say in peace talks between Yemen’s Houthi movement and Saudi Arabia, or in the quest to end fighting between rival military factions in Sudan.
The Gulf state is prioritizing a good working relationship with its neighbors, especially Saudi Arabia, said a Western diplomat in Doha who spoke on condition of anonymity.
“This makes them willing to avoid getting involved in regional conflicts and that is why they are less engaged in Yemen and Sudan than in previous times,” the diplomat said.
Qatar says its foreign policy is “firmly independent” and strives to “build consensus in the (Gulf) and the wider Arab region through constructive dialogue that does not compromise our foreign policy,” a Qatari official told Reuters.
“For this reason, Qatar decided not to block Syria’s readmission to the Arab League, but has not normalized relations with the Syrian regime,” the official said.
CHANGE OF FOOD REGIME
When Qatar allowed the opposition embassy in 2013, Doha was the main architect of a growing Arab consensus that isolated Assad and increased support for his enemies.
Doha and Washington worked together to try to organize an international effort against Assad and develop an alternative to him, said Joshua Landis, a Syria expert and director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.
Qatar turned the Syrian National Coalition into a government-in-exile, handed over the Syrian Arab League seat to them, and opened the Doha mission in a villa near other embassies.
Al Jazeera beat “the drums of regime change” by broadcasting a video stream of Assad’s security forces attacking protesters, Landis said.
Several Gulf states, including Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, began supporting rebel groups fighting to oust Assad from power.
“Qatar assumed that the civil war was going to result in an overthrow of the Assad dynasty, which it did not,” said Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar.
Assad regained control of much of Syria with the help of Iran and Russia, but hundreds of thousands of people have died in the war, millions have fled the country and Syria remains shattered with its economy in ruins.
As Syria’s anti-Assad movement lost ground, “Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates changed their policies more dramatically, but Qatar did not,” Kamrava said.
Qatar initially opposed Saudi Arabia’s efforts this spring to galvanize support for readmitting Syria to the Arab League after its 2011 suspension.
“They still see Assad as a war criminal and his place should be in the courts,” Tourkya said.
But three weeks later, Qatar accepted the League’s decision to readmit Syria. The foreign ministry said it did not want to be an obstacle to the Arab consensus.
Qatar made clear it would not restore relations with Assad’s government, a move it says is linked to progress towards a political solution.
But analysts wonder how long Doha can maintain that position.
Qatar “understands very well that they have lost, but they want to be the last country to normalize with Syria,” Landis said.
Reporting by Andrew Mills; edited by Maha El Dahan, Michael Georgy and Angus MacSwan
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