Speaker Kevin McCarthy is attempting a difficult balance as he tries to extract spending concessions from President Biden in exchange for raising the debt ceiling: building a deal that can win the votes of most Republicans without alienating the critical mass of Democrats he would. it is necessary to promote it in the Chamber.
Far-right Republicans have fueled the debt limit standoff by demanding deep spending cuts as the price of avoiding a default, and are almost certain to oppose any compromise. This means that Mr. McCarthy, a Republican from California, would need the support of a solid bloc of Democrats in the closely divided chamber.
Political reality is weighing on both Republicans and Democrats in the debt ceiling talks, which continued Tuesday on Capitol Hill with no sign of an imminent resolution. Mr. McCarthy and Mr. Biden is weighing compromises that would likely result in the loss of votes from both the left and the right in Congress, meaning they would need to assemble a coalition of centrist Republicans and Democrats to support any final deal to avoid an agreement by default.
The strategy carries great political risks for Mr. McCarthy, who won his post earlier this year after a hard-fought 15-round vote in part by promising to raise the voices of his more conservative lawmakers, and agreeing to a quick vote to oust him in any case. time He can afford to lose Conservative votes on the debt ceiling, but if he strikes a deal that angers them too much, he could be out of a job.
“My conservative colleagues overwhelmingly support Limit, Save, Grow, and they don’t think we should be negotiating with our hostage,” said Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Florida, who was one of the main detractors of Mr. McCarthy during his period. fight for the speaker. Gaetz was referring to the bill the House passed last month that would cut government programs by an average of 18 percent over a decade in exchange for raising the debt limit.
The dynamic has complicated the task of finding an acceptable agreement, placing negotiators on a precarious legislative seesaw. If they impose stricter work requirements for public benefit programs to win over Republicans, for example, they risk losing too many Democrats. If they tilt the compromise toward Democrats by reducing spending cuts, they risk alienating Republicans.
Further complicating the picture is an unwritten but virtually inviolable rule that speakers in both parties have long followed that any legislation they introduce must win at least a majority of their members.
“It’s a complicated piece of math,” said Representative Patrick T. McHenry, Republican of North Carolina and one of the negotiators that Mr. McCarthy has selected to lead the talks.
The White House and Republican negotiators have been tossing around the same set of issues, including the length and size of cuts to the federal budget, in an effort to stave off a potential economic catastrophe that could come as soon as Dec. 1. june
The question is whether Mr. McCarthy can negotiate a deal that his more conservative lawmakers, many of whom have never before voted to raise the debt ceiling, might oppose but won’t attack.
“I don’t think accuracy is the standard, but robustness is,” said Representative Dan Bishop, Republican of North Carolina and a member of the ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus. “Sometimes negotiators are so eager to reach a deal that they are not prepared to use the leverage they have.”
Pressure from his right helps explain the defiant outbursts the speaker has shown at times during the negotiations and why Republicans have hinted that no deal is likely to materialize until a default is truly imminent. When asked Monday evening what it would take to break the impasse, Mr. McCarthy replied, “June 1.”
Mr. McCarthy expressed confidence that any deal he negotiates will be supported by a majority of his conference, though he acknowledged that the deal ultimately “won’t solve all the problems” Republicans want to address. And he has noted on several occasions that he held his conference on the only debt ceiling bill that Congress has passed this year.
“I strongly believe that what we’re negotiating right now, most Republicans will see that it’s a good place to get us on the right track,” Mr. McCarthy.
Some key conservatives have already begun to openly worry that they are losing some of the political ground they believe they won in the debt limit bill that the House passed in April, which included the rollback of key elements of Biden’s signature health, climate and tax bill. . For many House Republicans, the bill was the least they would accept in exchange for raising the nation’s debt limit.
“There were a lot of people who put a lot of blood, sweat and tears into our legislation,” said Representative Garret Graves of Louisiana, another of Mr. McCarthy. “What we’re doing under the speaker’s direction is trying to protect all the stocks on this. We’re trying to hold it together as much as we can, recognizing that there’s a different common denominator at this point.”
Rep. Bob Good, Republican of Virginia and a member of the Freedom Caucus, said “the House has no more work to do” and that the Democratic-led Senate must pass the House GOP bill if senators they wanted to avoid default.
“Most Republicans have never voted for an increase in the debt ceiling,” Good said. “Virtually all Republicans did not want to vote in favor of raising the debt ceiling. But we came together and responsibly raised the debt limit. Everything in this bill was necessary.”
So far, right-wing lawmakers seem satisfied with Mr. McCarthy. Mr. Good said he was “doing a good job,” and Mr. Gaetz said the knowledge that he could lose office at any moment has kept the pressure on the California Republican to do the right thing.
“One person’s motion to leave has given us the best version of President McCarthy,” Gaetz said.
There are also risks for Democrats.
In both the House and Senate, liberals have resisted the White House’s openness to negotiating with Republicans to impose stricter work requirements on programs like Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and food stamps food, as well as the idea of reducing federal spending. Some progressives have urged Mr. Biden to stop negotiating with Republicans and avoid default by invoking the 14th Amendment.
Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic leader, complained Monday night after Biden and McCarthy met at the White House that House Republicans were trying to impose “extreme proposals” on lawmakers and the public.
“They keep coming back to the labor requirements, which are extreme. They keep going back to 10-year or multi-year spending caps,” Mr. Jeffries said. “These are all foreign things that are moving in the wrong direction.”
Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington, the chairwoman of the Progressive Caucus, urged Mr. Biden to hold the line against Republican pressure or face a major backlash from both congressional Democrats and millions of voters.
“The president must continue to stand strong because otherwise there will be a backlash from people who lose faith that the government cares about them,” he said.
Stephanie Lai contributed to this report.
