RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) – A North Carolina redistricting ruling has set up a possible electoral advantage for congressional Republicans to preserve their majority in the U.S. House next year, declaring that judges should not ‘scrutinize seat boundaries for partisan advantage.
Although Democrats only need to flip five seats from the GOP at large to regain control, experts say the state Supreme Court’s decision means four Democratic incumbents in the state, three of them first-term incumbents , are vulnerable.
What you need to know
A North Carolina redistricting ruling has set up a potential electoral advantage for congressional Republicans to preserve their majority in the U.S. House next year, ruling that judges should not scrutinize seat boundaries to gain a partisan advantage.
Experts say four Democratic incumbents are vulnerable when state lawmakers draw a new map later this year
The state’s highest court in late April overturned a 2022 Democratic ruling against partisan gerrymandering
The Republican-controlled General Assembly now plans to redraw those districts for the 2024 election
Litigation involving congressional maps in states including Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, Ohio and Texas could also redraw district lines and alter the 2024 electoral map.
Meanwhile, litigation involving congressional maps in states like Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, Ohio and Texas could also redraw district lines and alter the 2024 electoral map.
The legal guardrails on redistricting are in an unusual state of flux. Both state and federal courts were active in removing congressional maps during the the latest redraw bonanza legislative lines based on a decade’s census data. Further action by the US Supreme Court in the coming weeks could lead to new challenges and redrawn maps.
North Carolina’s highest court, chosen by partisan elections, went Republican in November. this new Republican majority at the end of April launched a 2022 Democratic ruling against partisan gerrymandering, saying the state constitution did not limit the practice.
The state map, created after last year’s court decision, was used last fall, when voters chose seven Democrats and seven Republicans. North Carolina’s statewide races are routinely close, with voter registrations roughly in thirds between Democrats, Republicans and unaffiliated residents. Just four years earlier, Republicans had comfortably won 10 of the 13 House seats in the nation’s ninth-largest state.
Freed from Democratic constraints, the General Assembly, also controlled by Republicans, plans to redraw those districts before the 2024 election.
“It’s a signal to the Republican supermajority that within some limits they can draw whatever maps they want,” said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University. “Republicans don’t have a blank check, but there’s plenty in the bank account.”
While North Carolina Republicans still don’t have details on what the new maps will look like, House Speaker Tim Moore said after last year’s election that “7-7 does not reflect the will of the North Carolina voters.” A map approved by Republicans in 2021 but never implemented because it was overturned would have given the GOP a great chance to pick up 10 seats. North Carolina gained a 14th seat this decade thanks to population growth.
The North Carolina ruling “could have a huge impact on control of the House,” said Dave Wasserman, editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. A map that tears apart at least four Democrats’ districts would “effectively double the Republican cushion” before next year, he said.
State Democrats have few options. The state constitution exempts redistricting legislation from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto.
“I’m hopeful that … they won’t be as extreme as the courts seem to have given them room to maneuver,” said Democratic state Sen. Natasha Marcus. “But I’m also realistic.”
Except for federal laws preventing racial gerrymandering and other redistricting standards, such as making districts identical by population, the legislature will have free rein.
“If you want to maximize your power, you’re going to draw the districts required by the Voting Rights Act and engage in the most partisan gerrymandering you can,” said Rick Hasen, a law professor at the University of California. , Los Angeles, which follows redistricting and election litigation.
Based on interviews and previous maps, one of the most vulnerable Democrats is expected to be first-term Rep. Jeff Jackson of Charlotte. Although he won the new 14th Congressional District by 15 percentage points, there are many ways to make the district more Republican.
“They’re coming for this seat,” said Jackson, a former state senator who has risen to prominence using TikTok to reach voters, in a fundraising email.
Also at risk is first-term Rep. Wiley Nickel, who represents the Raleigh-area 13th District. He won the state’s only 2022 toss-up race by 3 percentage points.
Nickel told The Associated Press that the Supreme Court’s decision was “pure partisan politics” and called the 2022 limits “an absolutely fair map for a 50-50 state.”
Other endangered Democrats are 6th District Rep. Kathy Manning, who represents the Greensboro area, and first-term Rep. Don Davis, who represents nearly 20 northeastern North Carolina counties in the 1st District.
Over the previous decade, North Carolina Republicans enjoyed a significant advantage in how congressional districts were drawn, even as courts repeatedly ordered new maps due to gerrymandering. In both 2016 and 2018, Republicans won two to three more seats than would have been expected based on their vote share, according to an AP analysis using a mathematical formula designed to detect gerrymandering.
In 2020, when Republicans won an 8-5 advantage in Congress, the GOP still held one more seat than expected based on its votes.
But that changed with the 2022 election. Republicans received 52% of the vote, but Democrats outvoted them, with 0.6 of a seat more than expected based on their vote share, according to the AP analysis.
Nationally, Democrats are rejecting the idea that North Carolina losses are inevitable. Their candidates have already shown they can win in tight districts, said Tommy Garcia, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Meanwhile, the National Republican Congressional Committee hopes “the state Legislature will draw fair lines that best represent North Carolina,” said communications director Jack Pandol.
The US Supreme Court must issue a judgment soon that could change the rules that require cartographers to draw districts that allow minorities to choose representatives of their choice.
Also before the high court is a case brought by North Carolina Republicans who argued state courts had no power to implement the map that produced the 7-7 congressional split last year. However, the judges’ decision will not affect the upcoming map draw in North Carolina.
