ANKARA, Turkey (AP) – Two opposing visions of Turkey’s future are on the ballot as voters return to the polls Sunday for a runoff in a presidential election that will decide between an increasingly authoritarian incumbent and a rival who ‘has pledged to restore democracy.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a populist and polarizing leader who has ruled Turkey for 20 years, is well positioned to win after falling just short of victory in the first round of elections on May 14. sky-high inflation and the effects of a devastating earthquake in February.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of Turkey’s main pro-secular opposition party and a six-party alliance, has campaigned on a promise to undo Erdogan’s authoritarian bent. The 74-year-old former bureaucrat has described the second round as a referendum on the direction of the NATO country, strategically located at the crossroads of Europe and Asia and which has a key say over the expansion of the alliance
“This is an existential struggle. Turkey will be dragged into the darkness or into the light,” Kilicdaroglu said. “This is more than an election. It has become a referendum.”
In a bid to sway nationalist voters ahead of Sunday’s runoff, the normally mild-mannered Kilicdaroglu (pronounced KEH-lich-DAHR-OH-loo) shifted gears and hardened his stance, promising to send millions of refugees if he is elected and rejecting him. any possibility of peace negotiations with Kurdish militants.
The social democrat had previously said he planned to repatriate the Syrians within two years, after establishing the economic and security conditions favorable to their return.
He has also repeatedly called on the 8 million people who stayed away from the polls in the first round to vote in the second round.
Erdogan won 49.5% of the vote in the first round. Kilicdaroglu received 44.9%.
At 69, Erdogan is already Turkey’s longest-serving leader, having ruled the country as prime minister since 2003 and as president since 2014. He could remain in power until 2028 if re-elected.
Under Erdogan, Turkey has proven to be an indispensable and sometimes problematic NATO ally.
He vetoed Sweden’s bid to join the alliance and bought Russian missile defense systems, prompting the U.S. to kick Turkey out of a U.S.-led fighter jet project. However, alongside the UN, Turkey also brokered a vital deal that allowed Ukraine to ship grain across the Black Sea to parts of the world struggling with hunger.
This week, Erdogan received the endorsement of third-place nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who won 5.2% of the vote. The move was seen as a boost for Erdogan, although Ogan’s supporters are not a monolithic bloc and not all of their votes are expected to go to Erdogan.
Erdogan’s nationalist-Islamist alliance also retained control of parliament in legislative elections two weeks ago, further boosting his chances of re-election as many voters are likely to want to avoid a divided government.
On Wednesday, the leader of a hardline anti-migrant party that had supported Ogan threw his weight behind Kilicdaroglu after the two signed a protocol pledging to send back millions of migrants and refugees during the year.
Kilicdaroglu’s chances of swinging the vote in his favor appear slim, but could depend on the opposition’s ability to mobilize voters who did not vote in the first round.
“You can’t say the odds are in his favor, but still technically he has a chance,” said Professor Serhat Guvenc of Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.
If the opposition can reach voters who previously stayed at home, “it may be a different story.”
In Istanbul, Serra Ural, 45, accused Erdogan of mishandling the economy and said he would vote for Kilicdaroglu.
He also expressed concern about women’s rights after Erdogan expanded his alliance to include Huda-Par, a hardline Kurdish Islamist political party with alleged links to a group that was responsible for a series of killings appalling in the 1990s. The party wants to abolish co-education, advocates the criminalization of adultery and says women should prioritize home over work.
“We don’t know what will happen to the women tomorrow or the day after, what condition they will be in,” he said. “To be honest, Huda-Par scares us, especially women.”
Mehmet Nergis, 29, said he would vote for Erdogan for stability.
Erdogan “is the guarantee of a more stable future,” Nergis said. “Everybody around the world has seen how far Turkey has gone.”
He dismissed the country’s economic problems and expressed confidence that Erdogan would make improvements.
Erdogan’s campaign has focused on rebuilding areas that were devastated by the earthquake, which leveled cities and left more than 50,000 dead in Turkey. It has committed to build 319,000 homes during the year.
In parliamentary elections, Erdogan’s alliance won 10 of 11 provinces in the quake-hit region despite criticism that his government’s initial response to the disaster was slow.
“Yes, there was a delay, but the roads were blocked,” said Yasar Sunulu, an Erdogan supporter in Kahramanmaras, the epicenter of the quake. “We can’t complain about the state… It gave us food, bread and everything we need.”
He and his relatives are staying in a tent after their house was destroyed.
Nursel Karci, a mother of four who lives in the same camp, said she would also vote for Erdogan.
Erdogan “did everything I couldn’t,” he said. “She clothed my children where I could not clothe them. He fed them where I couldn’t… Not a penny came out of my pocket.”
Erdogan has repeatedly portrayed Kilicdaroglu as colluding with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, after the opposition party leader received support from the country’s pro-Kurdish party.
During a rally in Istanbul, Erdogan broadcast a fake video purporting to show a PKK commander singing the opposition’s campaign song to hundreds of thousands of his supporters. On Monday, Erdogan doubled down on the narrative, insisting that the PKK has given its support to Kilicdaroglu whether the video is “faked or not.”
“Most analysts failed to measure the impact of Erdogan’s campaign against Kilicdaroglu,” Guvenc said. “This obviously struck a chord with Turkey’s middle nationalist-religious electorate.”
“Today’s politics is about building and maintaining a narrative that overshadows reality,” he added. “Erdogan and his people are very successful in constructing narratives that overshadow reality.”
