Guinea-Bissau heads to the polls on Sunday in legislative elections as voters seek stability more than a year after President Umaro Sissoco Embalo dissolved parliament over corruption allegations.
Twenty-two parties are contesting 102 seats, with around 884,000 people registered to vote. Results are expected within 48 hours.
Three dominant parties, including Embalo’s Madem G15 party, share almost all seats in the national assembly. The other two parties are the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) and the Party for Social Renewal (PRS).
In the current political system, the majority party or coalition appoints the government, but the president has the power to dismiss it in certain circumstances. This has led to political stagnation and infighting in the past.
Embalo dissolved the national assembly in May last year after falling out with lawmakers months after foiling a coup attempt.
The president said he had “persistent differences that could not be resolved” with parliament, which he said had become riddled with “guerrilla politics and conspiracy”.
He accused lawmakers of shielding MPs accused in corruption cases and refusing to be audited.
Embalo, a former army general, has long sought to change the constitution, which the international community cites as a major factor in the country’s instability.
While the changes he intends to make are unclear, critics accuse him of seeking to consolidate power after the disputed 2019 presidential election.
Guinea Bissau, a former Portuguese colony of approximately two million people, is notoriously unstable, having suffered four military coups since 1974, most recently in 2012.
The last coup attempt was in February last year when gunmen stormed a government compound where Embalo was holding a cabinet meeting. Embalo, who retained power, linked the incident to the country’s booming drug trade.
The country’s scattered Atlantic islands and mangrove mazes attract tourists, but also cocaine traffickers traveling from South America to Europe.
Given the fragmented playing field, analysts and politicians doubt that a clear majority will emerge.
“There will not be a winner with an absolute majority in this election. It is impossible,” said Prime Minister Nuno Gomes Nabiam, leader of the United People’s Assembly-Democratic Party of Guinea-Bissau. “No party is ready to rule Guinea-Bissau alone.”
The shortage of food
The aftershocks of the war in Ukraine, which have driven up global food prices, as well as the COVID-19 pandemic, have also had a detrimental effect on the country’s economy.
A fifth of the population suffers from food shortages, according to the United Nations.
Farmers have been unhappy with the government increasing the base price of cashew, a key export and source of income for the people.
Discontent with government policy was evident during the campaign.
“We traveled all over the country, but farmers refuse to come and listen to the speeches of some candidates because of the failure of the cashew campaign…,” Madem activist Buli Camara told the agency of AFP news.
“This year, it’s a complete fiasco.”
Elsewhere, there is little enthusiasm for the election.
Antonio Nhaga, head of a media monitoring group, said the leaders “are not proposing anything that will make anyone believe. [there will be] real change in people’s lives”.
But the reform is very necessary.
Instability and poverty have made the country attractive to drug traffickers who smuggle cocaine from Latin America to Europe. Timber trafficking and corruption are also rampant.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has deployed a team of 15 election observers, while 600 soldiers have been deployed to prevent another coup.
