When then-Vice President Mike Pence spoke outside Baltimore at the 2020 Republican National Convention, he declared, “America needs four more years of President Donald Trump in the White House.”
This week, when Pence officially announces that he is running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, he will argue that he, not Trump, deserves four more years in the White House.
Pence will enter a growing field of contenders seeking the GOP nomination, creating a historic rarity in which two former classmates become rivals.
Pence’s allies see an affable candidate with a consistent conservative record who can carry out the Trump administration’s policies without the drama. They believe his style and background make him uniquely suited to perform well in the Iowa caucuses, which would propel him to the top tier of candidates.
“I think he’s going to resonate. People are going to want to hear about the kind of issues and the kind of substance he’s going to have. It’s not some kind of superficial politics,” said Indiana House Speaker Todd Huston, who has known Pence since for more than 20 years.
But Pence has polled for months far behind Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (D), and skeptics of the former vice president’s chances to advance wonder if there is a lane for him with voters in the Republican primaries, which have increasingly focused on the culture wars. and personality over political documents and traditional conservatism.
“In general, there’s no appetite for Mike Pence in a Republican primary,” said Gunner Ramer, political director of the Republican Accountability PAC, a Republican-led group pushing the party to move away from Trump, which has conducted focus groups with Republican voters. .
A swathe of voters who support Trump see Pence as a traitor for refusing to reject the results of the 2020 election on January 6, 2021, despite his lack of constitutional authority to do so.
Meanwhile, some Republicans who want to turn the page on Trump prefer DeSantis as a closer approximation of Trump, but without the baggage.
“This idea of a Reagan Republican or a traditional conservative and all these policy positions, that doesn’t work in today’s Republican Party,” Ramer said. “Voters have no interest in this. They want someone to fight in the culture wars.”
Ramer pointed to the case of former Rep. Tom Rice (RS.C.), a five-term congressman with a strong Republican voting record who lost a primary last year, largely because he voted for impeach Trump
A CNN poll released late last month found that Pence was the first choice of 6 percent of voters in the GOP and Republican-leaning primaries, behind Trump, who was the first choice of 53 percent of voters, and DeSantis, who was the first choice of 26 percent. .
The poll also found that 54 percent of respondents said they would support or consider supporting Pence.
A Monmouth University poll released last week asked GOP voters who they would like to see as the Republican presidential nominee, but did not provide a list of names. Pence polled at 3 percent, behind Trump at 43 percent and DeSantis at 19 percent.
A March Des Moines Register poll showed 66 percent of self-identified Republicans in the state viewed Pence somewhat or very favorably, better than Nikki Haley but slightly lower than DeSantis and Trump.
Still, Pence’s team is convinced the former vice president has a way to go.
They believe Pence has an ability to connect with voters face-to-face that the other candidates don’t, and dismiss his current position in the polls by pointing out that the presumptive frontrunners at this point in recent Republican presidential primary cycles have not finished . winning the nomination.
Pence’s advisers see a lane that depends heavily on a strong finish in Iowa, where the former vice president is well-known and more likely to resonate with the large evangelical population that makes up the Republican electorate.
Pence has already been to the Hawkeye state about a dozen times before even declaring his candidacy. His campaign launch will have an Iowa focus, with a CNN town hall in Des Moines. A Pence adviser said the former vice president is willing to travel to the state’s 99 counties to reach voters where they are.
Those who have known him for a long time like to say that he is “well-known, but not well-known,” and that the policy of retailing in Iowa lounges and restaurants will allow him to better connect with attendees in the Iowa caucus. Committed to America, a pro-Pence super PAC, will also help organize and educate voters about the former vice president’s record.
“I think there’s always this Iowa dream of Midwestern politicians that their religious values, their understanding of agriculture in small-town America, makes Iowa a ripe stage for them,” Douglas Brinkley said. , presidential historian. “So Pence could be looking at Iowa and saying, ‘I could run well there.’ This is my constituency. If Pence comes in and wins Iowa or comes in second, it’s part of a national conversation.”
Pence is also betting that voters will prize substance over style, as he has already laid out detailed policy views on issues others have shied away from.
Where others have danced around the abortion issue, Pence has been clear that he strongly opposes the procedure, saying it should be considered a federal ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
Where Trump has urged Republicans to leave Social Security and Medicare intact, Pence has called for “common sense” reforms to entitlement programs to address their solvency and the nation’s debt.
And where DeSantis has referred to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “territorial dispute” and he and Trump have questioned U.S. support for Ukraine, Pence has been clear that it is in America’s interest to provide aid to the Ukrainians
Ultimately, however, the unique nature of Pence going from staunch Trump loyalist to challenging the former president for the nomination is likely to cloud his candidacy from the start.
Pence will make clear his differences with Trump and why he has decided to switch from running mate to competitor in his announcement this week, advisers said, but argued that it would not be what defines the former vice president’s approach to the voters
“Obviously, it’s a very high-profile issue in the campaign, especially in the minds of the legacy media,” said a Pence adviser. “So as far as we’re thinking about it, we’re thinking about a candidate who will draw contrasts with the former president, but also draw contrasts with the entire field.”
Still, Pence will have to find a way to break what has thus far shaped up to be a race dominated by Trump and DeSantis. That was on display this week, when campaign stops in Iowa by Trump and DeSantis received inordinate attention, making it difficult for candidates like Nikki Haley, Tim Scott or Asa Hutchinson to settle into the conversation.
Where others see a two-man race between Trump and DeSantis, the Pence camp sees a desire among voters for an alternative choice that is experienced, disciplined and capable of winning a general election.
“We think his message and track record will resonate with these voters,” said Scott Reed, a veteran GOP strategist and co-chair of the pro-Pence super PAC. “We read the news and the polls and we know that Trump and DeSantis are in this great fight, and we’re going to let that continue as we go forward and run our own campaign.”
