When Boris Johnson sat down to write his resignation statement after learning the privileges committee had concluded he lied to MPs about Partygate, he was determined to leave a clear message to his enemies on both sides of the Commons .
“Very sad to leave parliament,” he wrote. “At least for now…” That he still has hopes of a comeback, despite the damage he has done to his own reputation, the brand of the Conservative party and the country in general, should surprise no one.
Since announcing in July 2022 that he was stepping down as prime minister, Johnson has made no secret of the fact that he felt he had done nothing wrong and had therefore been treated unfairly. “I’m baffled and appalled that I might be kicked out,” he said.
Yet despite much speculation about the outcome of the privilege committee investigation, few expected Johnson to go so quickly.
It is likely that he did, taking Westminster by surprise on a day when his resignation honors list had already dominated the news, so that he could walk on his own terms, rather than face being forced into out for parliamentarians or, even worse, their own constituents.
Friends say Johnson, for all his public confidence and bravado, wanted one thing above all else: the warm embrace of popularity. Already a divisive post-Brexit figure, her actions since Partygate have slowly eroded the support she held.
Last month, polling expert Professor John Curtice said that if not for Partygate, Johnson would probably still be prime minister and predicted he could still end his career as an ordinary MP.
Johnson continues to have his admirers among Conservative voters, with a Savanta poll in May showing 64% of them still think favorably of the former prime minister and just 19% against.
But the man who in 2019 convinced thousands of former Labor voters to back the Tories for the first time, winning a huge 80-seat majority, now has little appeal outside the ranks of the Tory faithful.
The 33 hours that brought down Boris Johnson, in three minutes
The same Savanta poll found that less than one in five Labor and Lib Dem supporters were willing to give Johnson credit, with just 5% saying they would like to see him return to No 10.
Confidence, or the lack of it, was key. Poll after poll showed voters did not believe the former prime minister’s account of Downing Street huddles during the Covid pandemic. His claims that the Privileges Committee had failed to produce a shred of evidence fell on deaf ears to those listening to his account.
Many Tory MPs felt that the committee would conclude that Johnson had “recklessly” misled the Commons. But some allies had taken hope from the committee’s decision not to consider its recent referrals to the police for further alleged breaches of the blockade, ignoring the fact that they were not within its original powers.
Those who know Johnson best suggest that he has such a warped relationship with the truth that he actually thinks he’s being honest at this point, even when he’s not.
He reflected this in his resignation letter: “When I spoke in the Commons I was saying what I sincerely believed to be true.” But that was not an excuse that the privileges committee could accept.
Rishi Sunak will presumably breathe a sigh of relief that Johnson is now one step away from any kind of future comeback. Every time the prime minister has tried to extricate his party from the Johnson era, he has been dragged into more drama.
But there is no sign that his predecessor is planning to go quietly, and every indication is that he will continue to throw political hand grenades from the sidelines, even as he travels the world giving millions of speeches.
Johnson has already fired back at Sunak, telling him the party urgently needs to “regain its sense of momentum”, make the most of Brexit, cut personal and business taxes, push for a free trade deal trade with the US and, in essence, “don’t be afraid to be a proper conservative government.”
The former prime minister has long enjoyed comparisons with his historical and political hero, Winston Churchill, who returned to office in 1951 despite losing the 1945 election, and went on to serve as prime minister for four more years
But despite his reputation for staging gravity-defying political comebacks, Tory MPs and others in Westminster genuinely believe Boris Johnson is done this time.
