For months, the vaunted millionaire boss of Wagner’s private mercenary force bombarded Russia’s military leaders with insulting insults in a rift that has weakened the country’s forces amid the Ukraine war.
Yevgeny Prigozhin accused them of not providing him with ammunition in the key battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut.
A video from May showed him in front of the bloodied bodies of his slain troops shouting obscenities at Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff General Valeri Gerasimov, calling them weak and incompetent and blaming them for the carnage.
“They came here as volunteers and died to let you rest in your mahogany offices,” Prigozhin declared. “You’re sitting in your expensive clubs, your kids are enjoying the good life and making YouTube videos. Those who don’t give us ammunition will be eaten alive in hell!”
He even took what some saw as a subtle jab at President Vladimir Putin as an unwitting “grandfather” thinking the invasion was going well.
On Friday, however, Prigozhin appeared to go a step too far.
He accused Shoigu of ordering a rocket attack on field camps for his mercenary troops, with heavy casualties, and said he was dying to punish him.
That’s when Russian authorities hit back, with the country’s top anti-terrorist organization opening a criminal investigation into Prigozhin and calling for his arrest on charges of fomenting an “armed rebellion” in the face of threats to topple Xoigu .
It was a startling turn of events in Moscow: after more than two decades of Putin’s rigidly controlled rule, the worst infighting broke out into the open among his top lieutenants.
And it came as the war in Ukraine reached 16 months and Kiev’s forces were probing Russian defenses in the early stages of a counteroffensive.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin had been informed of the situation, adding: “All necessary measures are being taken.”
Prigozhin, 62, insisted his actions were “not a military coup, but a march for justice”.
Prigozhin said his men would punish the military leaders who ordered the attack and said his troops would fire on any troops who tried to stop them.
“The evil embodied by the country’s military leadership must be stopped,” he shouted in a recorded statement, adding that his forces did not intend to challenge Putin and other government structures. “Justice will be restored to the armed forces, and then justice will be restored to all of Russia.”
The Ministry of Defense denied attacking Prigozhin’s troops. Then the National Anti-Terrorism Committee, an arm of the Federal Security Service, or FSB, announced the investigation into the outspoken millionaire and urged Wagner’s own forces to arrest his boss.
Prigozhin’s statement was a “stab in the back of Russian troops”, the FSB said, and amounted to fomenting an armed conflict in Russia.
So far, Prigozhin’s rants against the military have been met with silence from Putin and the presidency. Some saw the failure to quell the infighting as a sign of possible changes in Russia’s political scene that set the stage for more infighting.
The conflict has been ignored by state-controlled television, where most Russians get their news. But in a twist, Channel 1 showed an unscheduled news story on Friday citing the Defense Ministry’s rejection of Prigozhin’s claim and describing as fake a video he posted purportedly showing the aftermath of a rocket attack on a field of Wagner.
The dispute has been closely followed, however, by ultra-patriotic Russians politically active on social media who share their disdain for military leaders.
Withering criticism of Prigozhin continued even as the Kremlin vigorously cracked down on other critics with fines and imprisonment.
While there are no signs that Putin is losing influence, “there are growing signs of deep dysfunction, anxiety, preoccupation with war and real problems in marshalling the resources needed to fight it effectively,” he said Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow for Russia. and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Prigozhin’s dispute with the military leaders dates back years and spilled into the open in the middle of the battle for Bakhmut which was led by his mercenaries. It has pushed the man dubbed “Putin’s chef” for his lucrative Kremlin catering contracts to the forefront of Russian politics and signaled his growing ambitions.
With his crude remarks, Prigozhin ventured into areas where only Putin had gone before: Over the years, the Russian leader occasionally broke decorum with an earthy remark or an off-color joke, while senior officials used carefully worded language.
In another recent video, Prigozhin made a statement that some have interpreted as a thinly veiled attack on Putin himself. He stated that while his men were dying due to a lack of ammunition supplies from the Ministry of Defence, a “happy grandfather is thinking he’s fine”, and then referred to this “grandfather” with an obscenity.
The blunt comment caused an uproar on social media, where it was seen as a reference to Putin. Prigozhin later said he was talking about Gerasimov.
“Prigozhin is now sailing much closer to the wind than ever before,” Gould-Davies told The Associated Press.
Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political commentator, described Prigozhin as “the second most popular man after Putin” and a “symbol of Russia’s military victory for millions”.
Putin has needed Prigozhin’s mercenaries at a time when the regular army is still recovering from pre-war setbacks. Boss Wagner’s position was strengthened after his private army captured Bakhmut last month in the longest and bloodiest battle of the war, relying on tens of thousands of convicts who had been promised pardons if they survived six months of struggle
“Putin dominates the system, but he still depends on a small number of big people to implement his will, to provide him with resources to carry out his orders, including fighting the war,” Gould-Davies told the AP.
While Putin can keep various factions divided and then “decide who wins and who loses and who goes up and who goes down,” the process erodes the government’s wartime authority, Gould-Davies said.
“If your military forces are divided and if they don’t fight together effectively, your military operations will suffer accordingly and that’s exactly what’s happening here,” he said.
Mark Galeotti, a London-based expert on Russian politics and security, speculated in a recent podcast that Putin’s failure to resolve political disputes may be rooted in a lack of interest, a focus on other issues or, more likely, a reluctance to take sides. .
“It also raises questions about his overall ability to do his job,” Galeotti said. “That’s the one thing, the one job that he really can’t outsource, and he’s not even trying.”
Prigozhin has allied himself with other hawkish officials, including reportedly Tula Governor Alexei Dyumin, a former Putin bodyguard seen by many as a potential successor. Wagner’s boss has also gravitated toward Ramzan Kadyrov, the Moscow-backed regional leader of Chechnya.
Some of these alliances have been unstable.
While Kadyrov initially praised Prigozhin and supported some of his criticisms, he later reversed course and criticized him for appearing defeatist. Kadyrov’s lieutenants criticized Wagner’s efforts in Bakhmut after Prigozhin made disparaging comments about Chechen fighters in Ukraine. Kadyrov’s top aide, Magomed Daudov, said Prigozhin would have been executed for those statements during World War II.
Prigozhin quickly backed down, saying he was only expressing concern about Russian operations.
He has dodged questions about his political ambitions, but recently toured Russia, continuing his sporadic comments.
“There are signs that he is looking for some kind of political future,” Gould-Davies observed.
While Prigozhin owes his position and wealth to Putin, he is playing the role of an outsider with his criticism of some leaders and attempts to appeal to the masses amid setbacks in Ukraine, said Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Endowment. .
“Prigozhin is playing an independent politician, raising the stakes and testing the limits of the system. But it is technically and physically possible only as long as Putin finds him useful and his escapades amuse him,” Kolesnikov said.
In a show of support for the military, Putin backed the Defense Ministry’s demand that all private companies sign contracts with it, something Prigozhin has refused to do.
Prigozhin has called for all-out war with Ukraine, including total mobilization across the country and the introduction of martial law in Russia, calls welcomed by some hawks.
But Kolesnikov points out that the vast majority of Russians who are mostly apathetic or unwilling to make greater sacrifices could be frightened and horrified by this message.
He cautions against overestimating Prigozhin’s influence and political prospects, and underestimating Putin’s authority.
“It is enough for the commander-in-chief to move his finger to make Chief Wagner disappear,” Kolesnikov said.
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Associated Press writer Danica Kirka in London contributed.
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