CNN
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This does not happen in Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Especially in public.
The Russian president faces the most serious threat to his grip on power in the 23 years he has led the nuclear state. And it’s amazing to see how the veneer of total control he’s maintained all this time, the ultimate selling point of his autocracy, crumbles overnight.
It was inevitable and impossible. Inevitable, since the mismanagement of the war had meant that only a system as homogeneously closed and immune to criticism as the Kremlin could survive such an atrocious misadventure. And it’s impossible, as Putin’s critics simply disappear, fall out of windows, or poison themselves wildly. However, the world’s fifth largest army is now in the midst of a weekend in which fratricide – turning their weapons on their fellow soldiers – was briefly the only thing that could save the ‘collapse Moscow elite.
At the time of writing, 24 hours of extraordinary shark jumping culminated in Wagner’s boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, agreeing to reverse his advance 200 kilometers from the Moscow city limits and send his columns back to the “field camps, according to the plan.” .” It was a last-minute investment meant, he said, to avoid “bloodshed”. Shortly before this audio statement, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko apparently contacted Prigozhin, with Putin’s permission, to negotiate this remarkable drop, according to a statement from Belarusian officials and media reports Russian state
Much of this sudden resolution is as curious and inexplicable as the crisis it resolved. It seems that Prigozhin, so far, has not had any of his demands met. The top official in Russia’s defense ministry is still in place. It has done untold damage to Putin’s grip on the Russian state and shown how easy it is to seize control of the key military city of Rostov-on-Don and then quickly advance on the capital. And it took the intervention of Lukashenko, an ally whom Putin treats more as a subordinate than an equal, to end this awful weekend for the Kremlin.
More details of how that went will come out. And the lasting damage done to Putin by this armed insurgency will be compounded by some key decisions the Kremlin chief must now make. Will he pardon Prigozhin and his fighters, or retract his statement about “inevitable punishment” for “blackmail and terrorist methods?” Does he make changes to the elite defense to appease Wagner’s boss? What does all this tell the Russian military, elite and people about who is really in charge of the country?
The anger and tension that has been building for months has not suddenly subsided. Instead, it has been accentuated.
We are so used to seeing Putin as a master tactician that Prigozhin’s first salvoes of defiance were sometimes seen as a feint: a bid by Putin to keep his generals on the sidelines with a loyal henchman as an outspoken critic. But what we’ve seen – with Putin forced to admit that Rostov-on-Don, his main military hub, is out of his control – casts doubt on any idea that this was managed by the Kremlin.
However, it is likely that Wagner’s units have been planning some of this for some time. The justification for this seemingly urgent and spontaneous rebellion – an apparent airstrike on a Wagner camp in the forest, which the Russian Ministry of Defense has denied – emerged hours after a remarkable dissection of the reason for the war by part of Prigozhin.
He partially told the truth about the disastrous beginnings of the war: Russia was not threatened by NATO attack and the Russians were not being persecuted. The only deception he maintained was to suggest that Russia’s top leaders were behind the invasion plan, and not Putin himself. Wagner’s forces have gathered very quickly and moved quickly to Rostov. This is difficult to do spontaneously in an afternoon.
Perhaps Prigozhin dreamed he could push Putin into a change at the head of a defense ministry that Wagner’s boss has publicly criticized for months. But Putin’s speech on Saturday morning has eradicated that prospect. This is now an existential choice for Russia’s elite: between the president’s faltering regime and the dark, mercenary Frankenstein he created to do his dirty work, who have become their masters.
It is also a moment of clarity for the Russian military. A few years ago, Prigozhin’s mild criticism would have led the balaclava-wearing elite special forces to turn him away. But now he roams freely, with his eyes wide open as he marches towards Moscow. Where were the FSB special forces during this nightmare Saturday for the Kremlin? Decimated by war, or unwilling to face their armed and experienced comrades in Wagner?
It’s not the first time we’ve seen Moscow weak this spring. The drone attack on the Kremlin in May must have made the elite around Putin question how the capital’s defenses were so weak. Days later, elite country houses were attacked by even more Ukrainian drones. Among wealthy Russians, Friday’s events will remove any doubts about whether they should doubt Putin’s power.
Ukraine will probably celebrate the disastrous moment of this insurrection in the ranks of Russia. It will probably alter the course of the war in favor of Kiev. But rebellions rarely end in Russia – or anywhere – with the results they set out to achieve. The 1917 overthrow of Tsar Nicholas II in Russia became the Bolshevik Revolution, Lenin and then the Soviet Empire.
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As this rare Jacobean drama of basic Russian human frailty unfolds, it is not inevitable that there will be improvements. Prigozhin may not prevail and the foundations of Kremlin control may not crumble. But a weakened Putin may do irrational things to demonstrate his strength.
He may not be able to accept the logic of defeat in the coming months on the front line in Ukraine. It may not be aware of the depth of discontent among its own armed forces and may not have adequate control over its actions. Russia’s position as a responsible nuclear power is based on stability at the top.
It can go much more wrong than right. But it is impossible to imagine that the Putin regime will ever return to its previous levels of control from this point forward. And it is inevitable that there is more turbulence and change ahead.
