Summers used to be considered the off season for politics. National and local campaigns used the period from May to September to raise money, build a campaign team and test messages.
With many Americans on vacation or distracted by other activities, politics took a back seat. Having fun in the countryside or on the beach is better than feeling the hot air of some politicians. Texas summer is enough to handle it.
These days, there is no off-season in politics. It is an activity throughout the year with few breaks. The summer of 2023 is no exception.
Inside and outside of Texas, there’s plenty of political action unfolding, much of it a prelude to what will be a fall show.
Political points
Related: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s impeachment trial is set for September
Over the summer, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will prepare his defense for an impeachment trial in the Senate. In May, House members voted to impeach Paxton after an ethics committee investigated allegations of bribery and corruption.
That trial is set for September.
Until then, here are some things to watch for fun times with friends and family.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Legislature leaders promised residents they would use at least half of a nearly $33 billion revenue surplus for the largest property tax break in Texas history. Lone Star.
Legislators have been unable to agree on the mechanics of property tax relief. The House and the Senate have dueling proposals.
The sticking points appear to include whether to give commercial and residential property owners a blanket break by lowering school tax rates. The Senate wants 30% of the tax cut to be achieved by increasing the property exemption from $40,000 to $100,000, in order to give a bigger break to the average homeowner, including big Texans.
Although he says he will sign a bill agreed to by lawmakers, Abbott has sided with House Speaker Dade Phelan, R-Beaumont, in the political fray, putting him at odds with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the most powerful. force in the Texas legislature.
At the Texas Capitol, the leaders of the “Big 3” – governor, lieutenant governor and speaker of the House – set the tone. In the past, two have sometimes been matched against the third in acrimony over major issues. This year’s new speaker is expected to be Beaumont GOP Rep. Dade Phelan, center, shown in 2019 photo speaking with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, left, at a signing ceremony of Houston Laws featuring Gov. Greg Abbott, right.(Elizabeth Conley/AP)
The special session called by Abbott to develop a property tax relief bill appears set to expire without action. He’ll have to call another one, and we’ll see if that leads to a compromise.
The Legislature had a 140-day regular session and a special session to fulfill its promise of tax relief.
If they fail, Abbott and lawmakers will likely pay a political price.
Heading into July, former President Donald Trump has a commanding lead in national presidential polls for the Republican presidential race. In the Real clear policy polling average, he maintains a 31-point cushion over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his closest challenger.
Polls in the early states of the contest will be more important than national polls, but Trump’s position as the GOP presidential front-runner is not in question at this point.
Related: Will Hurd takes aim at leader Trump as he launches long-term White House bid
But will that change this summer?
Now indicted in New York With felony charges related to hush-hush payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels, as well as indicted this month on felony charges related to his handling of classified documents, Trump could face more legal trouble this summer.
prosecutors in Georgia are investigating allegations that he illegally interfered in the 2020 presidential election there. he is is also being investigated for his actions surrounding the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021.
FILE – Former President Donald Trump greets supporters at the Versailles restaurant on Tuesday, June 13, 2023, in Miami. Trump appeared in federal court on Tuesday on dozens of felony charges accusing him of illegally amassing classified documents and thwarting the Justice Department’s efforts to retrieve the records. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)(Alex Brandon / ASSOCIATED PRESS)
So far, his legal troubles have made Trump stronger with his core supporters and helped him raise funds. His rivals in the Republican presidential field hope voters want a new election and are tired of the drama of the Trump era, even those who believe efforts to impeach him are misguided or political.
DeSantis, who is expected to have strong financial backing, is believed to be a serious challenger for the nomination. This summer we will begin to see if he lives up to those expectations, or if Trump is likely to dominate the field, as he did in the 2016 race.
Republican Sen. Ted Cruz is confident he will be re-elected in 2024, despite a storm from Democrats who insist he is vulnerable.
A Democrat has not won a statewide race since 1994. Since then, the Texas electorate has grown to include more Republican voters than Democrats.
That structural advantage for the GOP, which analysts in both parties say is close to or over a million voters, gives Cruz an advantage over the Democratic nominee. As he did with his close 2018 victory over former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, Cruz must convert the Republican base of GOP voters to win.
Although the gap has closed in recent years, Democrats have not been able to mobilize enough of their base voters to offset the Republican advantage. That means they have to rely on a combination of new voters, independents and Republican defectors.
It is a difficult stew to master.
Currently, the favorite to win the Democratic nomination for the Senate is Representative Colin Allred of Dallas.
The congressman, in his third term representing the 32nd District in North Texas, has presented himself as a business-minded Democrat who can work across the aisle and is not interested in partisan and divisive politics. Allred says Texas deserves better than Cruz, while Cruz has called Allred a lightweight.
Allred is expected to face competition for the nomination.
Texas Sen. Roland Gutierrez of San Antonio has indicated he will enter the Democratic race this summer. Latino candidates tend to do well in Democratic Party primaries.
Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, left, asks a question during a Senate Commerce Committee hearing, Feb. 9, 2023, on Capitol Hill in Washington. Rep. Colin Allred, D-Texas, right, speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, June 24, 2020. Allred says he will run for the U.S. Senate in 2024, becoming a of Republican Senator Ted’s early challengers. Cross(Mariam Zuhaib / AP Photos)
In North Texas, state representative Carl Sherman, the former mayor of DeSoto, has been mentioned as a potential Senate candidate.
Allred will likely have a financial advantage and already has considerable support. You will have the resources to amplify your message and build your name recognition. It will be a primary worth watching.
One more note about Cruz. If Trump craters and the GOP primaries become a free-for-all, don’t be surprised if Cruz, the last Republican to run against Trump in 2016, reexamines his options. Right now he is focused on his re-election bid.
In Texas, he is allowed to run for Senate and President.
