London
CNN
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President Joe Biden embarks on a week-long trip to Europe on Sunday, and the stakes couldn’t be higher for the future of the NATO alliance.
Biden is making a stop in London before attending the NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, followed by meetings with Nordic leaders in Helsinki, Finland. The backdrop, of course, is Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and last month’s failed coup attempt in Russia, which poses the biggest threat to global stability for the alliance in recent history .
Biden will be a key player on a number of issues critical to the alliance when they meet in Vilnius, a city on NATO’s eastern border that lies roughly 20 miles from the Belarusian border. The summit will present a key test of the alliance’s continued remarkable level of unity after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its credibility.
There will be questions about Ukraine’s path to NATO membership and whether members can agree on Sweden’s bid for membership. Also discussed are next steps for the war a month after Ukraine’s counteroffensive, questions about a possible endgame and what long-term security assistance leaders can offer Ukraine.
Ukraine’s path to NATO membership is taking on increasing urgency and is likely to be one of the biggest sticking points for the group as the war drags on, especially after Chief Wagner’s aborted mutiny , Yevgeny Prigozhin, who exposed cracks in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war. military leadership and posed a potentially existential threat to his regime.
NATO first welcomed Ukraine’s membership aspirations during a 2008 meeting in Bucharest, Romania, but little progress has been made and the timetable remains uncertain. And while the U.S. has said Ukraine will not join NATO as a member coming out of this meeting, the Vilnius summit presents a critical opportunity to take tangible steps toward that goal in an important show of unity .
“Ukraine and many NATO allies are asking for a clearer path, a road map, some kind of declaration in Vilnius that shows Ukraine what it needs to do to enter the alliance. And I think this is very important because the ‘alliance be credible. Given the stakes of the war, … given what the Ukrainians have suffered, if we leave Vilnius without a firmer idea of what it will take to get Ukraine into the alliance, I concerns the credibility of the alliance,” said Chris Skaluba, director. of the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security.
But Biden will be a key player in determining what, if any, specific and measurable criteria or deadlines are offered to Ukraine for NATO membership during this summit.
Biden and members of his administration have remained committed to the alliance’s current stance. However, NATO countries in Eastern Europe that border Ukraine or Russia have made a stronger push for a commitment to extend membership to Ukraine, including offering a longer timetable concrete, which has created tension within the pre-Sunni alliance. And the chairs of the Foreign Affairs Committee of 22 nations, including US House Foreign Affairs Speaker Michael McCaul, signed a letter in early June calling for a clearer path to the summit .
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters that Vilnius “will be an important moment on this path to membership,” providing an opportunity for members “to discuss the reforms that are still necessary for Ukraine to adjust to NATO standards”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told CNN in an exclusive interview that giving Ukraine an invitation to NATO would be a major motivation for Ukrainian soldiers.
“This signal is really very important and depends on Biden’s decision,” Zelensky told CNN earlier this month.
The split has prompted urgent discussions ahead of the summit, and the outcome of the talks could determine whether Zelensky attends.
“If we are not recognized and given a signal in Vilnius, I think it makes no sense for Ukraine to be at this summit,” Zelensky told the Wall Street Journal in June.
Observers will also be closely watching how the leaders interact with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he continues to block Sweden’s bid to join the alliance. Finland and Sweden formally applied to join the security alliance in May 2022, prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Finland was admitted this April. But Turkey’s objections to Sweden’s efforts remain, which could prove a major embarrassment and source of weakness for the alliance.
Sweden’s NATO membership is “within reach”, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference after a meeting of senior officials from Turkey, Sweden and Finland on Thursday . Stoltenberg expressed optimism for a “positive decision” and said he will meet Turkish and Swedish leaders in Vilnius next Monday.
In a remarkable show of US support, Biden welcomed his Swedish counterpart, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, to the White House on Wednesday.
“The bottom line is simple: Sweden will make our alliance stronger and has the same value as we have in NATO. And I’m very, very anxiously awaiting your membership,” Biden told Kristersson during a meeting at the office oval
While Sweden’s leadership plays a prominent role in the negotiations, leaders will also look to Biden for what the US can offer Turkey to grease the wheels. Turkey wants the US Congress to approve its purchase of US-made F-16 fighter jets. While U.S. officials are reluctant to tie the issue of Sweden and the F-16s overtly, officials say behind the scenes there is an obvious deal to be made.
The question of Sweden’s membership is not expected to be fully resolved during the summit – it will require a parliamentary procedure to be formally approved – and leaders will be looking to Erdoğan for any sign that he is willing to remove control and remove any questions about the alliance solidarity
“It would be a real failure for the alliance if it is not able to get Sweden over the goal line here, and it is a failure because it is being held back by one member, Turkey,” said Max Bergmann, director of Europe , Russia. and Eurasia Program and Stuart Center at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Bergmann continued: “If Sweden is not a member, come to the summit in Vilnius… I think it will really lead to a confrontation with Turkey over whether Turkey, in fact, belongs in the alliance.”
As the leaders meet, experts are watching whether the alliance can offer any additional long-term security assistance to Ukraine, including the possibility of additional F-16 fighters and other long-term investments as a key signal to NATO Russia in the long run. support for Ukraine.
In an important step during the G7 summit in May, Biden informed G7 leaders that the US will support a joint effort with allies and partners to train Ukrainian pilots in fourth-generation aircraft, including the F-16, a process which may take several months to complete. .
“Right now, Ukraine is receiving very short-term support, which we are appropriating money for and getting that money out the door as quickly as possible to meet Ukraine’s defense needs for the current counteroffensive,” Bergmann said.
However, he added: “It’s very important to make a long-term financial commitment here to really send a message to the Russians that they’re not going to win a long war and that our commitment to Ukraine will last,” noting the importance of that commitment alongside the element of uncertainty surrounding the 2024 US presidential election.
The Indo-Pacific will also be a key topic of discussion between the leaders after they condemned the damage caused by China’s “non-transparent market-distorting industrial practices” in a statement closing last year’s summit in Madrid
Biden is also set to deliver what Sullivan described as a “major address” in Vilnius “on his vision of a strong and secure America, flanked by strong and confident allies and partners, taking on the important challenges of our time, from Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. to the climate crisis”.
Before the Vilnius summit begins, Biden will first visit the United Kingdom, where he will meet with King Charles III for his first one-on-one engagement since ascending to the throne. In keeping with tradition, Biden did not travel to London for the coronation, but first lady Dr. Jill Biden and granddaughter Finnegan Biden attended the ceremony.
Biden has previously said he hopes to discuss environmental issues during his visit to Windsor Castle. It will be a moment closely watched for how the monarch balances her traditionally apolitical role with a cause she is passionate about.
Biden and the king, Sullivan said, “will engage with a forum that will focus on mobilizing climate finance, particularly on bringing private finance to the sidelines for clean energy deployment and adaptation in developing countries.”
And the president will also meet with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, whom he hosted at the White House last month and with whom he has consulted closely on Ukraine and other foreign policy issues.
Biden will also offer a notable show of support for the Nordic countries after the Vilnius summit, traveling to Helsinki, Finland, for a summit with the leaders of Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, the third such summit and the first of the Biden Administration.
With Sweden’s NATO membership still hanging in the balance, the tone of this meeting could very much depend on what, if anything, can be done in Vilnius.
But there are other areas ripe for discussion, a Nordic official told CNN, including security cooperation, particularly in the Arctic, where both China and Russia have a presence. They are also expected to discuss areas of technology cooperation, including 5G technology and artificial intelligence. And climate commitment and clean energy will also be key topics during the visit to Helsinki.
