CNN
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President Joe Biden has already secured a powerful delivery from his trip to Europe: one that will weaken Russia’s strategic position in another damaging fallout from its invasion of Ukraine.
Turkey’s lifting of its blockade of Sweden’s entry into NATO was a significant and surprising move on the eve of the NATO summit in Lithuania. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recall came hours after he warned that Sweden would be out in the cold until Turkey gained membership of the European Union.
Once Sweden finally joins NATO, it will bolster Biden’s reputation as an American leader who revitalized and expanded the bloc. Finland – which decided to sign up, like Sweden, after the invasion of Ukraine – has already added hundreds of kilometers of NATO territory to Russia’s border. Biden’s arms-and-ammunition lifeline for Ukraine and leadership of the alliance have made him the most important president on transatlantic affairs at least since George HW Bush, who presided over the end of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany. His legacy, however, will depend on the outcome of the war in Ukraine and his ability to avoid a direct clash with Russia.
Turkey’s about-face will also lighten the mood at the NATO summit, where the alliance’s most united moment in years had been in danger of being somewhat tarnished by divisions over requests for Ukraine to obtain a timetable for its accession. Biden had said before leaving the US that Ukraine was not ready to join. New member states need the unanimous approval of all NATO members to join the club and benefit from its collective security guarantee.
Erdogan’s move also dealt a blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin. First, it will lead to the expansion of NATO territory and strengthen the alliance after an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine that Putin had argued was in part aimed at weakening the West and countering what he claims it is their effort to neutralize Russia’s power in their own backyard. Second, the decision by Erdogan, an increasingly autocratic leader who has enjoyed very cordial ties with the Kremlin strongman, will thwart Russia’s attempts to sow divisions among NATO members to weaken NATO alliance
Monday’s events were another intriguing twist for a mercurial leader who has taken advantage of Turkey’s strategic position where West meets East to try to rebuild his country as a major regional power. While it is so far unclear whether Erdogan won anything more than cosmetic concessions from Sweden, European NATO powers and the United States, his sudden change of heart raises the question of whether he had bargained for a corner He had already raised objections to Finland joining the alliance.
The recently re-elected Erdogan has vexed successive US presidents for years, both because of his geopolitical muscle and his hardline rule that Washington fears will erode Turkey’s secular constitution and democracy. In recent years, the US has been frustrated by its cozying up to Putin and also by his still pending suggestions of a rapprochement with Syria.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who is very close to Biden and has just been persuaded to extend his mandate until October 2024, said Turkey’s change of heart was the product of months of diplomacy. “This is not a new negotiation, but it is about implementing and reassuring the implementation of the different things we agreed a year ago in Madrid,” Stoltenberg said.
Turkey’s change of heart also followed a phone call between Biden and Erdogan on Sunday, in which the US president appeared to have made his position clear. The White House hinted at the tone of the call when it said Biden expressed a desire to bring Sweden into NATO “as soon as possible.”
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, praised the break from the impasse and also sought to secure political credit for Biden, whom he hailed as a foreign policy expert. “He has a real understanding of it, a real handle on it, and he’s very effective. And this is a victory for America, for the West, for freedom and for President Biden.”
Whether Turkey won any political victories may not be known for several days. But Ankara’s official media quoted a senior official as saying Erdogan secured Sweden’s full support for Turkey’s EU entry process, which has been stalled for years. Stoltenberg also expressed strong support for Turkey’s bid for EU membership, and Biden said in a statement that he hoped to improve security in Eurasia with the Turkish leader.
Still, all these steps, while possibly giving Erdogan political cover at home for his shift in position, don’t look like major breakthroughs for Turkey. Stoltenberg, for example, has no ability to influence his bid to join the European Union. And Erdogan’s crackdown on human rights and the media has only increased skepticism about Turkey’s ability to meet EU entry conditions. Sweden and Turkey agreed to work together to fight terrorism as part of the deal between their leaders, and NATO agreed to appoint a new counter-terrorism coordinator. The steps appear to be aimed at placating Erdogan’s demands for a crackdown on the Kurdistan Workers’ Party militant in Sweden. Turkey claims the government in Stockholm had allowed members of the group to operate on its soil and has been complicit in far-right anti-Islam protests.
Another factor that may have weighed on Erdogan was the fact that a bipartisan group of senators had asked Biden to delay the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, which would be one of the largest arms sales in years, until he dropped objections to Sweden’s accession to NATO. Sen. Bob Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Monday he had not yet decided whether to drop his longtime opposition to the F-16 deal, in part because of concerns that Turkey could use the planes to intimidate Greece, also a member of NATO. . The New Jersey Democrat said he could make up his mind “next week.”
Given his hardline stance on arrival at the NATO summit, Erdogan appears to have fallen far short of his own goals. He warned on Monday morning that Sweden’s membership should be linked to Turkey’s aspirations to join the EU. “Turkey has been waiting at the gates of the European Union for more than 50 years” and “almost all NATO member countries are European countries,” he warned.
Former Deputy Director of National Intelligence Beth Sanner told CNN on Monday that Erdogan’s sudden shift was “fascinating” because he had been seeking to negotiate quid pro quos with the US for months. “This really isn’t about Sweden, it’s about the United States and Turkey and Turkey’s role,” he told Jake Tapper. “He played too hard by putting EU membership on the table, and I think he really wants NATO to see him as the person who comes in and saves the day, not the looter.” She continued: “It started to look like the spoiler and I think he had to back off.”
A major consequence of Erdogan’s reversal could be the worsening of his relations with Putin just days after he invited the Russian leader to Turkey in August. Erdogan wants to use Turkey’s power to negotiate an extension of an agreement that would allow Ukraine to export grain from Black Sea ports.
In another significant move over the weekend, Turkey allowed the release of a group of Ukrainian commanders, who were previously captured by Russia after leading the defense of Mariupol from the Azovstal steel plant in past They returned home to a hero’s welcome from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky despite a prior agreement with Russia that they would not be extradited to Ukraine until the end of the war.
Erdogan appears to have made a significant break with Putin. But anyone expecting him to stop playing multiple facets of the great geopolitical game will likely be disappointed. Erdogan has always sought to claim maximum power for himself and Turkey, and this is unlikely to change.
