A short-lived revolt by a rebellious Russian mercenary The commander ended his retreating troops, but the extraordinary challenge President Vladimir PutinTwo decades in power could have long-term consequences for his government and his war in Ukraine.
How US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “Face the nation” Sunday morning, the current situation in Russia is an “unfolding story”.
“We haven’t seen the last act,” Blinken said. “We’re watching it very closely and carefully, but just take a second and put it into context.”
on sunday morning Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner’s mercenary group, was to leave for Belarus under the agreement negotiated with the Kremlin. As part of the deal, Wagner’s troops would be pardoned and criminal charges against Prigozhin would be dropped.
Blinken told “Face the Nation” that he couldn’t get into where Prigozhin is currently, but said it’s something they’re “following” through intelligence.
/ AP
Wagner’s troops were seen on Sunday leaving Rostov, an important Russian military post they had taken over.
By Sunday afternoon, the troops had withdrawn from the capital, and people swarmed the streets and gathered in cafes. Traffic returned to normal and roadblocks and controls were removed, but Red Square remained close to visitors. On the roads leading to Moscow, crews repaired broken roads just hours earlier in a panic.
In a televised speech on Saturday, Putin called for unity and accused Prigozhin of treason, without mentioning him by name.
Putin’s image as a tough leader had already taken a heavy toll Ukraine war, which lasts for 16 months and claims a large number of Russian troops. Saturday’s march on Moscow by forces under the command of his former protégé, Prigozhin, exposed further weaknesses, analysts said.
It also meant that some of the best forces fighting for Russia in Ukraine were withdrawn from that battlefield: Prigozhin’s Wagner troops and the Chechens sent to stop them.
They then advanced toward Moscow largely unhindered. Russian media reported that they shot down several helicopters and a military communications plane. The Ministry of Defense has not commented.
They stopped short of an agreement to send Prigozhin to neighboring Belarus, which has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Charges against him of mounting an armed rebellion will be dropped, according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, and Prigozhin ordered his troops back to their field camps.
The government also said it would not prosecute Wagner fighters who took part, while those who did not join would be offered contracts by the defense ministry.
Although Putin had previously promised to punish those behind the armed uprising, Peskov defended the reversal, saying Putin’s “ultimate goal” was to “avoid bloodshed and internal clashes with unpredictable results.”
This amnesty contrasts with the fines and prison sentences Russian authorities have imposed on thousands of people who have criticized the war, even obliquely.
And while it ended the immediate crisis, it may have set in motion a longer-term one, analysts and observers said.
“For a dictatorship based on the idea of unchallenged power, this was an extreme humiliation, and it is hard to see the genie of doubt being forced back into the bottle,” said Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies of the University. of St. Andrews in Scotland. “So if Prigozhin might have lost in the short term, Putin is likely to be the long-term loser.”
Blinken noted on “Meet the Press” that the challenge to Putin came from within.
“I think we’ve seen more cracks emerge in the Russian facade,” he told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We have all kinds of new questions that Putin will have to address in the coming weeks and months.”
Prigozhin, who sent a series of audio and video updates during his revolt, has been silent since the Kremlin announced the deal.
It is not clear if he is still in Belarus or if any of his Wagner troops would follow him.
In response to questions from The Associated Press, Prigozhin’s press office said he could not respond immediately but would “answer questions when I have a normal connection.”
Video taken by The Associated Press in Rostov-on-Don showed people cheering Wagner’s troops as they marched. Some ran to shake hands with Prigozhin, who was riding in an SUV.
The regional governor later said all troops had left the city. Russian news agencies also reported that authorities in Lipetsk confirmed that Wagner’s forces had left the region, which is on the road to Moscow from Rostov.
Moscow had prepared for the arrival of Wagner’s forces by setting up checkpoints with armored vehicles and troops at the southern end of the city. About 3,000 Chechen soldiers were pulled from fighting in Ukraine and rushed there early Saturday, Chechen state television reported. Russian troops armed with machine guns set up checkpoints on the southern outskirts of Moscow. Crews dug up sections of road to slow the march.
Anchors on state-controlled television broadcast the deal ending the crisis as a sign of Putin’s wisdom and broadcast images of Wagner’s troops withdrawing from Rostov-on-Don to relieve local residents who feared a bloody battle for control of the city.
People there who were interviewed by Channel 1 praised Putin’s role.
But the US-based Institute for the Study of War warned that “the Kremlin now faces a profoundly unstable balance.”
The “deal is a short-term solution, not a long-term solution,” wrote the institute, which has followed the war in Ukraine since its beginning.
Prigozhin had demanded the dismissal of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, whom Prigozhin has long criticized for his conduct in the war in Ukraine.
The United States had information that Prigozhin had been building up his forces near the Russian border for some time. This conflicts with Prigozhin’s claim that his rebellion was a response to an attack on his camps in Ukraine on Friday by the Russian military.
In announcing the rebellion, Prigozhin accused Russian forces of targeting the Wagner camps in Ukraine with rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery. He alleged that General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff, ordered the attacks after a meeting with Xoigu in which they decided to destroy the military contractor.
The Ministry of Defense denied attacking the camps.
Congressional leaders were briefed on Wagner’s hoarding early last week, a person familiar with the matter said. The person was not authorized to speak publicly and spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity. The US intelligence briefing was first reported by CNN.
A possible motivation for Prigozhin’s rebellion was the Russian Defense Ministry’s demand, which Putin supported, that private companies sign contracts with him by July 1. Prigozhin had refused to do so.
Ukrainians hoped that Russian infighting would create opportunities for their army to retake territory occupied by Russian forces.
“These events will have been of great comfort to the Ukrainian government and the military,” said Ben Barry, senior research fellow on land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Wagner’s troops have played a crucial role in the Ukrainian war, capturing the eastern city of Bakhmut, an area where the bloodiest and longest battles have taken place.
The Kremlin’s amnesty offer to Prigozhin was negotiated by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, which may have increased his stature in his relationship with Putin.
Prigozhin, 62, a former convict, has long-standing ties to Putin and won lucrative Kremlin catering contracts that earned him the nickname “Putin’s Chef.”
Wagner has sent military contractors to Libya, Syria and several African countries, as well as Ukraine.
