Several politicians are fueling speculation that they could make late entries into the 2024 presidential race ahead of what appears to be a possible rematch between President Biden and former President Trump.
Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) became the latest figure to raise questions about a White House bid after he released a cryptic video this week that sparked rumblings of a possible third-party campaign. Sen. Joe Manchin (DW.Va.) has raised similar questions in recent months and days.
Meanwhile, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has been floated as a possible late entry in the GOP primary. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) was also considered a possible choice until he dismissed a race on Monday.
The speculation surrounding these candidates underscores the degree of frustration over the respective party frontrunners.
“This is the point in the race every cycle where voters start thinking, ‘Are these our only options?’ And that always gets late interest,” said Alex Conant, a consultant who served as communications director for Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) 2016 presidential campaign.
While these candidates may not ultimately choose to run, none of them have completely closed the door on the possibility.
Polls suggest there’s good reason for that, with many voters indicating they don’t want Biden or Trump to be their party’s nominee, as both have struggled with poor favorability indexes.
The political organization No Labels has also drawn more attention to its plan to field a centrist ticket consisting of one Democrat and one Republican. But it has raised some concerns among Democrats that any such ticket could act as a spoiler and hand the race to Trump.
“The nature of our electoral politics means that the third-party candidate is almost never viable and will most likely only serve as a spoiler and primarily for the current party,” said Sawyer Hackett, a Democratic strategist and senior adviser to the Campaign Committee for Progressive Change.
He said interest in a potential third-party bid stems from the large number of voters disillusioned with the two major parties. Meanwhile, he said there are a significant number of Republican voters who don’t want to see Trump win the nomination, leading to hopes that another candidate will join that primary field.
Trump’s age and many legal problems, including the possibility of a second federal indictment in the coming days, could offer another Republican an opportunity, some in the party argue.
“So I think everybody is still waiting to see what happens legally, what the implications might be,” said Saul Anuzis, a Republican consultant and former Michigan GOP chairman. “Are there health reasons or other reasons…that might create an opportunity?”
Here are the top politicians who are sparking speculation about possible late-entry bids for 2024:
Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) speaks at an April 6 event in Fairfax, Va. (Greg Nash)
Glenn Youngkin
Virginia’s governor has allowed questions about his 2024 ambitions to return since he was elected to the highest office in a state that was initially assumed to lean blue.
Youngkin has sent mixed signals for months about joining the race. He said in early May that he would focus on supporting Republican candidates in Virginia’s state legislative elections this year, but did not outright rule out a presidential run later.
He released a campaign-style video later that month paid for by his super PAC that featured comments he previously made calling for a “new era of American values.”
Brian Seitchik, a GOP strategist and former Trump campaign staffer, said Youngkin’s 2021 run was a national story that gave him name recognition and that he would get at least a “serious look” in the race. He said history shows a late entrant to the race isn’t likely to pull through, but he expects the race to tighten and Republican voters to consider whether they want to fully get behind Trump as he faces multiple impeachments.
“Is there going to be a moment of reflection before this thing is done where voters say are we really ready to make that leap? Now, if you’re betting today, you’d have to say the odds are yes, but I don’t think Trump is going to go from wire to wire here without at least being pushed for a period of time,” Seitchik said.
Former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan rehearses his farewell speech moments before reciting it in a video on Jan. 10 in Annapolis, Md. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
Larry Hogan
Hogan, a moderate Republican who served two terms as governor of Maryland, announced in March that he would not seek the GOP nomination after “serious consideration.” But he said shortly after that he had not ruled out a third-party offer.
The video by the super PAC supporting Hogan, An America United, did not directly address a potential campaign, but instead included a voiceover of him talking about being an underdog and finding political success by working with both parties.
“I’ve always been an underdog and people have always written us off, but we’ve beaten the odds every time,” Hogan. he said in the video he posted on Twitter on Tuesday.
Even so, he has not been clear about his plans.
Hogan he acknowledged to ABC News on Tuesday that a third-party bid would be a “steep bid” but argued that it was “worth a shot.” He said in an interview on “CNN This Morning” on Friday that now “might be the time” for a third-party candidate, and that he is serving as the national co-chair of No Labels because he believes in “bipartisan, common-sense solutions.”
But he also told CNN that he is not considering third-party action and has not taken “open steps to take any action.”
Sen. Joe Manchin (DW.Va.) speaks during a hearing May 2 in Washington. (Greg Nash)
Joe Manchin
West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin has raised fears among his fellow Democrats that he is open to trying to forge a middle ground between Biden and Trump. Facing what is likely to be a tough re-election campaign in a heavily conservative state, Manchin has said he won’t decide on his “political future” until the end of the year.
On Monday, he headlined the first of multiple “Common Sense” town halls organized by No Labels, though he has not directly said whether he would run under their banner.
A recent Monmouth University poll showed Biden beating Trump even with Manchin on the ticket as a third-party candidate, but senators from both parties have said they expect his candidacy to hurt Biden more than Trump.
Democrats who spoke to The Hill say they ultimately don’t expect Manchin to run for president.
“I certainly think he’ll want his legacy to be how he helped shape and shape the future of this country as a senator from West Virginia, versus how he helped potentially elect right-wing extremists,” said Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright, who noted that Manchin is known for being a “serious political flirt.”
Hill 2024 election coverage
Manchin told the No Labels town hall that he has never run in a race as a spoiler, and if he runs, he will run to win.
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Consultant Simon Rosenberg said he would expect Manchin to do no better than single digits in the polls against Trump and Biden, which he said would be considerably lower than unnamed independents have been in the polls. he he tweeted last week who expects any third-party candidate to receive even less support than they expect based on the “gravity” of the race.
“My guess is that the absolute ceiling for Manchin or anyone else is like 8-10%. In a few months it will be a clear failure, a lifetime embarrassment for whoever goes,” he said in his tweet.
“I think we’re still in the early days, and a lot of these efforts are going to come to nothing,” Rosenberg later told The Hill.
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