Donald Trump’s June federal indictment is “radicalizing” support for the use of force on behalf of the former president and current presidential candidate, according to the author of a recent survey on threats to democracy.
Meanwhile, across the aisle, support for violence to restore federal abortion rights has also increased in recent months, the researchers found, although there is little sign that any organized group supports acting on that belief.
The Dangers to Democracy report indicates that a growing number of Americans support the use of political violence as the 2024 presidential campaign heats up and more impeachment charges against Trump are likely imminent.
“The impeachment is radicalizing support for Trump, but that’s not the only source of radicalization,” said Robert Pape, a University of Chicago professor who led the investigation. “You’re seeing growing anger and radicalization on the left as well.”
The number of Americans who believe the use of force is justified to restore Trump to the White House rose by roughly 6 million in recent months to about 18 million people, according to the poll conducted by the university in late June and shared exclusively with the Guardian.
Of those 18 million people, 68 percent believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump and 62 percent believe Trump’s prosecutions are intended to hurt his chances in 2024. An estimated 7 percent of Americans believe violence could be necessary to restore Trump to the presidency, up 4.5 percent, or 12 million people, in April.
But over the same period, Trump’s overall favorability declined slightly among Republicans, the poll found.
Line graph of public opinion on the use of force to restore Trump to the presidency
The university’s Chicago Project on Security and Threats (CPost) research center has been conducting Dangers to Democracy surveys of American adults on political violence and attitudes toward democracy since shortly after the Jan. 6 uprising at the U.S. Capitol.
The most recent report marks the first increase in radical and violent support for Trump since April 2022, according to Pape, who runs CPost.
“The public is more radicalized than in April and it’s really quite significant,” he said. “We’ve been tracking this for a long time, and this is a huge blow.”
Still, a radicalized public is not enough for real violence to occur, Pape said. He compared the support to ignition, but said Trump should give a speech or rally urging people to take action at a certain time to light the fire, as he did in Washington DC on January 6, 2021.
Democrats, however, expressed support for political violence with a different purpose. The poll found that support for using force to coerce members of Congress to “do the right thing” grew from 9 percent in January to 17 percent — an estimated 44 million Americans — by the end of June, with the biggest increase among Democrats. Support for violence to restore the federal right to abortion also increased during this time.
Chart showing political actions that a minority of Americans believe justify the use of force
“Certainly things are going in the wrong direction in terms of radicalization in the country and we have to be aware of that because there was some hope that Trump’s impeachment would actually reduce support for Trump,” Pape said.
Those polled also said they see Trump as a greater threat to democracy than President Joe Biden, by a 52 percent to 33 percent margin.
The researchers also asked participants about support for dangerous conspiracy theories, including whether they believe a secret group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles is running the US government. The number of people who believe this claim, an important tenet of the QAnon conspiracy theory, increased slightly, although the change was no greater than the margin of error.
The poll also found that nearly 90 percent of Trump’s most radical supporters believe the federal government is run by a “deep state” of immoral people.
With more indictments against Trump likely in the coming weeks, both from the federal government and the district attorney in Fulton County, Georgia, Pape said he worries about further radicalization of the public.
As Trump faces more complicated legal issues and the 2024 election season begins with the first GOP debate just a month away, the number of Americans who believe the 2020 election was stolen from him remains largely unchanged at about 20 percent.
Line chart showing one in five Americans still believe the 2020 election was stolen from Trump
“Things are going in the wrong direction of radicalization, and we haven’t even gotten into the really hot part of the 2024 election season,” Pape said.
CPost’s research is supported by the University of Chicago, the Pritzker Military Foundation, the Hopewell Fund, and the Anti-Defamation League, and contributions from CPost’s board of advisors.
