AUSTIN – Attorney General Ken Paxton and his Democratic challenger, Rochelle Garza, are neck and neck in a new poll, a sign that the embattled incumbent is vulnerable in November.
Paxton leads Garza 34 percent to 32 percent among registered voters, the tightest margin of any statewide contest, according to a Dallas Morning News-University of Texas at Tyler poll released Sunday.
Eight percent supported Libertarian candidate Mark Ash, 7 percent chose “someone else,” and 18 percent were unsure.
The results suggest the race could be Democrats’ best chance to win a statewide office after nearly three decades of gridlock.
The poll, conducted Aug. 1-7, polled 1,384 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Paxton, a Republican and close ally of former President Donald Trump, is seeking a third term under a cloud of legal trouble. Garza, a civil rights attorney from South Texas, is an unknown political newcomer to many voters.
Texas Attorney General challenger Rochelle Garza smiles as she introduces herself to delegates and guests attending the Lady Bird Breakfast fundraiser at the 2022 Texas Democratic Convention at the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center in Dallas, on July 16, 2022.(Tom Fox / Staff Photographer)
Both have strong support within their own parties, according to the poll. But Garza has a 5-point lead among independents, who also make up the largest share of undecided voters and could swing the election.
Half of independent voters said they disapprove of Paxton’s job performance, the poll found, up from 41% in May. A declining number (18 percent) believe Paxton has the integrity to serve in the position he has held since 2015.
Paxton has been indicted for securities fraud for nearly his entire tenure, but a trial has been delayed by arguments over where to keep one, how much to pay prosecutors and non-legal reasons, such as Hurricane Harvey and the pandemic. In late 2020, the FBI began investigating Paxton after former aides accused him of illegally helping a campaign donor. No federal charges have been filed. Paxton denies wrongdoing.
The legal issues, however, fueled attacks from Republicans and Democrats that may be resonating with voters on the fence.
Related: Rochelle Garza files case against Ken Paxton for Texas Attorney General
“What Paxton is seeing is a real challenge to get swing voters and independent voters in Texas, against someone who could be a fresh face in Texas politics and is talking about bringing change to Austin,” said the poll director, UT-Tyler political. scientist Mark Owens.
What would benefit Paxton, he said, is if the high-profile governor’s race between Gov. Greg Abbott and Democrat Beto O’Rourke soaks up all the political oxygen, leaving little room for Garza to pitch to voters.
“Those independent voters may have no reason to choose to vote for her,” Owens said.
Poll results show the top reasons voters prefer Garza to the Republican president are because she’s a Democrat (23 percent) or “not Paxton” (13 percent).
Paxton’s top attribute among supporters is also his party affiliation (20 percent), according to the poll, with 16 percent saying they like him because he’s a “good AG.”
With just three months until the midterm elections, the race has so far been dormant. Since winning their respective primaries in May, neither Paxton nor Garza have held any major campaign rallies or bought television ads. Both are trailing other major candidates in fundraising.
Over the past few months, Garza got nearly $520,000 in campaign donations compared to the $340,000 raised by Paxton. However, Paxton is sitting on a $3.5 million war chest, compared to Garza’s $450,000.
Matthew Sokol, a 42-year-old man who lives outside of Houston, is one of those independent voters trying to make up his mind. He likes to vote for the person, not the party, but is struggling with his options.
Paxton’s legal problems give him pause, and he finds Garza too liberal.
“A very big part of our state election is a complete question mark for me,” he said. “I’m going to start having to do more research.”
