There are also other elections on the ballot, including the regularly scheduled primary in Alaska, where GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowskiwho voted to impeach Trump in early 2021 after Cheney joined the House majority to impeach him, is expected to qualify for the general election.
Here’s what to watch on Tuesday:
Cheney goes to the end
Vice President Liz Cheney arrives after a break as the House Select Committee investigating the January 6 attack on the US Capitol holds a hearing at the Capitol in Washington, DC on July 21, 2022. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo
Trump has made defeating Cheney a top priority since losing the 2020 election. He has raged at the Wyoming congresswoman for voting to impeach him after Jan. 6 and later for helping lead the investigation into his guilt for the insurrection.
Trump endorsed Hageman, a lawyer and onetime supporter of Cheney’s, in early September. She quickly consolidated most of a fractured camp seeking to oust the three-term incumbent and daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney.
Hageman has relied on Trump’s endorsement to propel his campaign, also securing endorsements from dozens of Republican members of Congress seeking to curry favor with the former president or take a parting shot at Cheney, or both. Hageman’s backers include the House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who blessed the effort to remove Cheney from party leadership. Cheney has sought to draw on a network of support from the Republican Party’s old guard, both state and national, that includes his father, former President George W. Bush, and Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah).
And while Cheney has significantly outperformed Hageman, the challenger has held large leads in every poll that has been publicly released. If Cheney ultimately loses Tuesday, as expected, it means that only two of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump even have a shot at returning to Congress next year: Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), who could face a competitive general election, and And Newhouse (R-Wash.) who is a safe bet for another term in his deep-red district.
Any question marks left in the Cheney-Hageman race come down to uncertainty over how many Wyoming Democrats might switch to voting in the Republican primary to support Cheney. Cheney and his allies have been explicitly courting Democrats, asking them to temporarily switch parties to try to push her over the finish line.
But if Cheney loses on Tuesday, it’s unlikely to go away. He has made it his mission to ensure that Trump never returns to the White House, and notably, he has not ruled out a bid of his own in 2024.
Palin is trying to make a comeback after another decade out of office
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin addresses supporters at the opening of her new campaign. | Mark Thiessen/AP Photo
Tuesday’s other big contest is in Alaska, where Palin is running in a special election to finish out the remainder of the late Rep. Don Young’s term.
Palin was the avatar of the far-right Republican base before Trump took over the GOP. But his time in the political spotlight was relatively brief. In less than three years, she was elected governor of Alaska (defeating the incumbent governor in a primary and a former governor in the 2006 general election), became John McCain’s vice presidential running mate in 2008, and then he resigned from the post in the summer. of 2009.
Palin stayed in the public spotlight through several media appearances and returned to campaigning after Young’s death earlier this year. Trump quickly endorsed his campaign and finished first in all party primaries for the June special election.
But Alaska’s new unique election system could complicate the former governor’s comeback attempt. The special election will be Alaska’s first race under the new rules, with all voters choosing candidates in the same all-party primary and the top four candidates advancing to a ranked-choice general election.
Also in the field Tuesday are Nick Begich, a Republican and the grandson of the late Democratic Rep. of the same name, and former Democratic state Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola. (A fourth candidate, independent Al Gross, initially qualified but later dropped out.)
If no candidate gets a majority of the vote, voters’ other ranked choices will have to be calculated, meaning the winner won’t be known for weeks. State election officials plan to run the tabulation of the classified election on August 31. Palin came in first in the primary with just 27 percent support, suggesting a tie-breaking election is likely.
In addition to the special election, the primary for a full term for the at-large seat is also Tuesday. Palin, Begich, Peltola and others are also participating in this primary.
Murkowski’s first hurdle
Senator Lisa Murkowski smiles as she leaves the Senate chamber at the Capitol in Washington, DC on April 5, 2022. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo
Alaska will also host its Senate primaries, with the same rules of first-four-place-order for all parties. And like Tuesday’s other big races, there’s a Trump angle here, too.
Murkowski and challenger Kelly Tshibaka are expected to be among the four candidates advancing, and the new system is expected to benefit Murkowski in the fall, when he has previously garnered support from across the state’s political spectrum in other general elections.
Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy is also running for re-election under the same system, in a primary that includes former Gov. Bill Walker, who is running as an independent, and former Democratic state Rep. Les Gara.
Given the state’s large size and reliance on mail-in ballots in some communities, we may not know Tuesday night who advanced from the primary.
