CNN
—
Maybe Donald Trump just put Ukraine on the clock.
The former president’s refusal to say whether he wants President Volodymyr Zelensky to win the war after Russia’s unprovoked invasion, along with his absurd claim that he could end the conflict within 24 hours, raised the possibility that the fate of Ukraine rests in the hands of the US. voters next year.
The Republican front-runner’s comments, at a CNN town hall meeting in New Hampshire, were the latest sign that the politics of war in the United States could become more tense as the 2024 campaign drags on. creating new pressure on Zelensky’s offensive which is closing in on delivering a decisive result. during the second year of the conflict.
The prospect of a Trump return to office could also provide an incentive for Russian President Vladimir Putin to prolong a war that is taking a terrible civilian toll and racking up heavy Russian casualties in the hope that he can take advantage of any decline in the multibillion-dollar of the USA. aid flow to Ukraine.
And Trump’s decision to insert himself directly into the debate reflects deepening political calculations for several key players in the war. That includes both President Joe Biden, who staked his legacy as a champion of democratic principles in the US and abroad on Ukraine’s survival, and Putin, who presided over a scaled-down Victory Day parade in Moscow this week after failing in its war objective of crushing Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Developments on the battlefield could dictate the course of the war long before the November 2024 election. And making equivocal judgments about any comments the former president makes is risky, as he often seems to live day-to-day and minute-to-minute instead of following months of strategic plans.
However, Trump’s unwillingness to refer to Putin as a war criminal despite evidence of Russian atrocities in Ukraine and an International Criminal Court warrant for his arrest renewed intrigue over the former president’s reasons for repeatedly kowtowing to the Kremlin strongman.
However, Trump’s personal and political motivations for creating a campaign issue outside of Ukraine, and his ability to politicize the US’s multibillion-dollar lifeline of arms and ammunition for the Zelensky government, should not be underestimate In New Hampshire, Trump showed that he sees war as a perfect vehicle for his populist nationalism, claiming that the rest of the world is ripping off the US and that Biden is more concerned about protecting the safety of foreigners than the economic needs of the North – Americans .
That message could be especially powerful in the event of any recession next year that could hurt Biden’s re-election bid. It’s also unclear whether Biden would want to enter the critical months of his campaign still sending billions of dollars to Ukraine despite touting his leadership of the West as a major foreign policy success.
For now, the prospect of a Trump return to office is a long-term concern for Ukraine, as it struggles to drive Russian forces from its territory in a long-awaited counterattack and has strong support from a revitalized Biden the Western Alliance in its support. After all, the next election is 18 months away, and Trump may not win the GOP nomination or the presidential contest. Some recent polls have detected a decline in support for a prominent US role in supporting Ukraine, particularly among Republicans, a factor Trump is trying to exploit, although GOP support for Ukraine in Congress remains strong despite anti-Ukraine rhetoric. -Zelensky high profile of some of his closest allies on Capitol Hill.
For Trump, the whole Ukraine issue boils down to a dollars-and-cents equation, just as he seemed to see NATO while in office as little more than an international protection racket.
“We’re giving away so much equipment, we don’t have any ammunition for us right now,” the former president told CNN’s town hall. And, he added, “we don’t have ammunition for ourselves, we’re giving so much away” — comments that tapped into a streak of isolationism in today’s Republican Party.
When asked by CNN anchor Kaitlan Collins if he thinks Putin should be tried for alleged war crimes, Trump replied: “I will say this: I want Europe to put more money in.” That comment paralleled one of the most enduring punchlines of his 2016 campaign in which he accused America’s allies, such as those in Europe and Asia, of enriching themselves under an umbrella of american defense
On the one hand, Trump’s comments are an affront to generations of American foreign policy orthodoxy based on the idea that making the world safe for democracy and standing up to tyrants is in the core political, diplomatic, and commercial interests of the United States and is a multiplier of American power.
However, his threats to US allies, particularly in Europe, while sending shockwaves through the transatlantic alliance, caused some European powers to increase their own defense spending towards the threshold of the 2% of GDP recommended by NATO for member states. However, it is sometimes difficult to distinguish between the Trump effect and more European defense spending due to growing concern about Russia, even before the invasion of Ukraine.
But Trump is also right that the US has spent more on Ukraine’s defense than the EU, a powerful economy, which is geographically much closer to the war zone than the US. The Biden administration has committed a total of $36.9 billion in military aid to Ukraine since the start of the war in an extraordinary effort that has effectively made it a de facto client of NATO and effectively frustrated effectively one of Putin’s war aims to keep Kiev out of the West. orbit
European Union institutions have pledged some 3.6 billion euros in military aid to Ukraine, but individual member states have given more than 10 billion euros more in combined contributions, according to the As an Institute for the World Economy. Britain, which is no longer a member of the EU, has also sent more than €6 billion and, as CNN’s Jim Sciutto exclusively reported Thursday, has delivered “Storm Shadow” cruise missiles to the forces of Zelensky before the next offensive. (One dollar is currently equivalent to 0.91 euros.)
Like the United States, Europe has also offered tens of billions of dollars in other types of aid, grants and loan guarantees to Ukraine, but Washington remains the main donor. Trump’s transactional view of the Western alliance reflects his very narrow view of US security interests and foreign policy, which has not changed since his first term, when he cut US financial contributions to NATO.
It also ignores how the combined US-Europe partnership rooted in US military power has not only kept Europe peaceful for nearly 80 years, but has turned the Western bloc into the most prosperous and democratic political experiment in the history His first administration turned the US from a guarantor of global stability into a major disruptive force, and he is already indicating that a second would deliver more of the same.
But his complaints about European defense spending did receive support from an unlikely source on Thursday: EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell.
“I wasn’t a fan of President Trump, but I think he was right about one thing: Europeans are not sharing their share of the burden,” Borrell said Thursday in Brussels.
Still, Ukraine should probably worry that if Trump returns to power, he would like to erase Biden’s legacy, just as he pulled out of the Paris climate accord and trashed the Iran nuclear deal , diplomatic centerpieces of the Obama administration.
And the former president may harbor a particular grudge against Zelensky after his attempt to get the Ukrainian president to announce a corruption investigation into Biden ahead of the 2020 election led to his first impeachment.
New Hampshire Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, a frequent critic of Trump and a potential 2024 presidential candidate, described Trump’s performance at the town hall as “weak,” “easy” and lacking in lead in an appearance on “Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer.”
“Ukraine must win the war,” Sununu said, adding that the US had never had a better chance to “put a foot on Russia’s tin can army.”
Trump’s former defense secretary, Mark Esper, told CNN’s “This Morning” on Thursday that Trump’s comments sent the “wrong message,” particularly because they could suggest to China that it could wait for U.S. determination and its allies to deter any invasion. from Taiwan.
America’s friends abroad, however, stressed Thursday that, at least for now, Trump’s intentions for Ukraine were hypothetical.
Zelensky himself ignored Trump’s comments in an interview with European public broadcasters.
“Who knows where we’ll be [when the election happens]?” he said, according to the BBC. “I think we’ll win by then.”
And British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the House of Commons on Thursday that he was confident Americans would support Ukraine whoever was in the White House.
“The president of the United States today is President Biden. I have a good relationship with him, as does the administration,” Wallace said. “I know that the decent, good people of America would recognize that their rights are just as important as the people of Ukraine. Their Constitution upholds rights. I think that’s what will bring them together, and I’m sure whoever comes next as president he will continue to support the battle to defend human rights.”
But this week has been the clearest reminder yet that Trump, who last year called for the “ending” of the Constitution, may not share those values.
