He’s surging in the polls and turning heads in Iowa and New Hampshire on the back of heavy ad spending that feeds voters’ appetite for an upbeat, positive leader in a dark political moment.
He has experience, a compelling personal story and a campaign war chest that allows him to hold onto power in a Republican primary that has so far been a two-way race. And among Republican voters, he’s the candidate everyone seems to like.
Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina is perfectly positioned to seize the moment if former President Donald Trump collapses under the weight of his criminal cases or if his challenge to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis evaporates.
The only question is whether it will ever come.
The growing popularity of Mr. Scott in early primary states has made him more of a candidate in the still-young primary campaign and, in the eyes of current and potential supporters and donors, a potential alternative to Mr. DeSantis, who is seen as an alternative to Mr. trump
Andy Sabin, a wealthy metals magnate who switched his allegiance from Mr. DeSantis to Mr. Scott and is hosting a fundraiser for three dozen wealthy donors in the Hamptons next month, cited his frustration with the frontrunners and said he hoped more in the donor class would join him in supporting Mr. Scott. Potential donors, said Mr. Sabin, “everyone wants to see what it’s all about.”
“They are disenchanted with Trump and DeSantis,” he said. “And the others, I’ve seen very little momentum.”
Since entering the race in May, Mr. Scott has been slowly increasing in Iowa and New Hampshire. A University of New Hampshire survey of likely voters on Tuesday found him in third place among the state’s primary voters, with 8 percent of the vote, ahead of former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey and former Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina, both of whom have focused heavily on the state.
He also ranks third in recent polls in Iowa, at about 7 percent, and some national surveys have shown him as the second choice for many supporters of Mr. Trump or Mr. DeSantis, though it comes at a time when primary voters who don’t commit to Mr. Trump usually considers several candidates.
The strength of Mr. Scott in the early states has attracted the attention of other potential donors, including billionaire cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder, who met with Mr. Scott in South Carolina this month. In August, Mr. Scott will make a fundraising drive through at least five states, including Colorado, Tennessee and Wisconsin.
Although he has not been as present in the campaign as his rivals, Mr. Scott and his allied groups have poured considerable money into Iowa and New Hampshire, spending $32 million to run ads through January 2024, more than any other Republican candidate or group on the airwaves, according to tracking firm AdImpact. Mr. Scott is the only Republican candidate to book advertising time this far in advance.
Supporters of Mr. Scott says his positive campaign message and overall appeal contrast with the primary frontrunners. The highest-ranking black Republican, he presents an only-in-America history as a candidate and senator with roots in a low-income Charleston community.
However, although Mr. Scott has shown some momentum in early states, including his home state, Republican voters have yet to flock to him, and he’s still relatively unknown nationally.
A Quinnipiac University Poll of voters across the country found him tied with Mr. Christie in the primaries among likely Republican voters, behind Ms. Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence, who are tied for third. And while he’s well-liked in early primary states, more than half of Republican voters polled nationally said they didn’t know enough about him to have an opinion.
Alex Stroman, the former executive director of the South Carolina Republican Party, acknowledged the problem but said it could be solved. “I think the more people that get introduced to Tim Scott, the more people they’re going to like Tim Scott,” he said. “The problem is that it’s a crowded primary.”
Asked during a town hall in New Hampshire on Tuesday how voters should contend with such a crowded field, Mr. Scott said he expected “the field will thin out pretty quickly” when voters cast ballots in the state’s February primary election.
The first opportunity to present himself to a national audience will be the Republican debate on August 23. The campaign director of Mr. Scott, Jennifer DeCasper, recently said that Mr. Scott had met the donor and voting thresholds to be on the debate stage. Mr. Scott, who raised more than $6 million in the second quarter, has more than $20 million in the bank — one of the biggest war chests of the primaries and enough, Ms. DeCasper, to keep his campaign afloat through the Iowa caucuses and the first three state primaries.
“At the end of the day, candidates can post any number they want,” he said. “But the name of the game is how much actual cash you have on hand that is available to use in the Republican primary.”
On Tuesday, Trust in the Mission PAC, a group that supports Mr. Scott, announced that he would spend $40 million on digital advertising and outreach in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, a mammoth outlay that far exceeds that of any other candidate in the GOP field and could potentially reshape it.
The PAC’s spending reflects a big bet to raise the profile of Mr. Scott, especially because he maintains a relatively limited presence on the campaign trail: He has relegated his time in early primary states this month to the few days of the week he is not in the Senate. The group has already invested more than $7 million in ads over the summer; the $40 million purchase will begin in September. It is also helping to fund a small field operation of a dozen paid staff and 100 collectors in early primary states.
A challenge that still faces Mr. Scott is presenting a political message that separates him from the rest of the Republican primary field. His ads in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are biographical, with some touching on national security, warning of the threat China could pose, while others tap into cultural issues, criticizing Democrats’ policies on education and their views on race.
But trying to appeal to a broad swath of Republican voters without alienating key parts of the party’s primary electorate has proven difficult.
Terry Amann, an Iowa pastor who has met with most of the Republican candidates, said Mr. Scott needed to articulate a stronger political plan to connect with conservative evangelicals who could decide the caucuses in January. While the senator’s conservative message and frequent biblical allusions have endeared him to many religious Republican voters, Mr. Amann, Mr. Scott has not clearly defined his position on abortion restrictions.
“If you want to be the candidate who stands out for faith, there are some issues that I think are worth establishing, and this is one of them,” he said. “That would be my challenge to him if he wants to break away from the rest of the group.”
With just over a month until the first debate and six months until the Iowa caucuses, Mr. Scott still sees an opening to refine his message and consolidate more voters. Still, while trying to outdo Mr. DeSantis, the biggest challenge will be to wrest the support of more than half of Republican primary voters from Mr. trump
“These campaigns, candidates, need to figure out what the hell they want voters to know about them,” said Dave Carney, a veteran Republican strategist in New Hampshire.
Mr. Scott, because of his background, has a unique story to tell, which can make “people listen a little bit,” Carney said. “That’s a big plus.”
But, he added, “it’s not just about getting their interest, you have to make the deal.
“You have to sell the deal.”
Ruth Igielnik contributed to this report.
