Bangkok, Thailand – Voters in Thailand head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament in what analysts have described as “the most important election to date”.
The poll is the first in the Southeast Asian country since a youth-led uprising in 2020 that broke long-standing taboos with a call to curb the powers of King Maha Vajiralongkorn, as well as end to a decade of almost a decade of military support. rule
Sunday’s vote is expected to provide a strong mandate for change, with opinion polls consistently predicting a majority for the main opposition Pheu Thai Party and the youth-led Phak Kao Klai (Progress Party, MFP) .
But fears have remained that the royalist military establishment may try to cling to power. In the past 20 years alone, the military has staged two coups while the courts have ousted three prime ministers and dissolved several opposition parties.
“People are worried and afraid,” said Hathairat Phaholtap, the editor-in-chief of the Isaan Record newspaper. “They have been waiting for this vote for so long and it means a lot to them. There is a lot of tension, but also excitement and hope.”
Here’s what you need to know about Sunday’s election.
Who are the main contenders?
Topping the polls is Pheu Thai (For the Thais), the opposition party aligned with self-exiled billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, whose ouster in a 2006 coup sparked political turmoil in Thailand . Despite Thaksin’s fall, parties linked to the telecom tycoon have won every election since, including twice in landslides.
The good election results were thanks to pro-poor policies such as universal health care and debt relief for farmers.
This year, Pheu Thai is again pledging to expand welfare programs and stimulate Thailand’s economy hit by the pandemic, including offering 10,000 baht ($300) in handouts for people 16 and older.
The party is currently headed by Thaksin’s 36-year-old daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
At Pheu Thai’s latest rally on Friday, Paetongtarn urged thousands of red-clad supporters to help the party win a landslide victory to end the military-backed “dictatorship” and “improve people’s lives”.
Pheu Thai Party prime ministerial candidate Paetongtarn Shinawatra gestures during the party’s last major campaign event in Bangkok on May 12, 2023 [Manan Vatsyayana/ AFP]
Close behind Pheu Thai in the polls is MFP, led by 42-year-old businessman Pita Limjaroenrat.
The progressive party has put democratic reforms at the center of its agenda, including promises to scrap Thailand’s military constitution, abolish conscription and overhaul the country’s strict lese majeste laws, which punish insults to the king to 15 years in prison.
The charismatic Pita, who has drawn large youth crowds to his campaign events, has seen a surge in support in recent weeks, with the latest polls showing the public favoring him for the premiership over Paetongtarn.
“Our time has come,” Pita told thousands of orange-clad supporters at the latest MFP rally in the Thai capital, Bangkok. “To end Thailand’s political crises, we must end the cycles of coups, forever.”
Pita Limjaroenrat attends the party’s final campaign event in Bangkok on May 12, 2023 [Jack Taylor/AFP]
The two reformist parties face off against Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha’s Ruam Thai Sang Chart (United Thai Nation Party, UTN).
The conservative nationalist party, which defends values such as peace, harmony and respect for the monarchy, is in a distant third in the polls.
Prayuth, who first took power in a coup in 2014, concluded his campaign on Friday by warning supporters against “harmful” and revolutionary changes. He also appealed to the mostly older crowds to protect the “values of Thai people”.
Thailand’s Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha waves to supporters during a final general election campaign rally in Bangkok, Thailand, Friday, May 12, 2023 [Sakchai Lalit/ AP]
How do elections work?
About 52 million people out of Thailand’s 71 million are eligible to vote in Sunday’s vote.
The 500 seats in the House of Representatives are at stake. These include 400 seats that are directly elected and 100 seats that are allocated based on proportional representation.
Voters will receive two ballots, one for their local constituency and one for their preferred party at national level.
Polls will open at 8:00 local time (01:00 GMT) and close at 17:00 (10:00 GMT).
When will the results be known?
The first unofficial results will begin to arrive within hours of the polls closing.
The Electoral Commission said on Thursday that results from 95,000 polling stations across the country will be collated, verified and published on its website from 19:00 (12:00 GMT) on polling day.
The commission expects the unofficial results to be known at 23:00 (16:00 GMT) that evening.
He has two months to formally ratify the election results.
How is a prime minister chosen?
Parties must win 25 seats in the lower house to appoint a prime minister.
Polls suggest Pheu Thai is on track to take about 220-240 seats in the 500-member house, while MFP is likely to win 70-100 seats.
Both parties have indicated their willingness to work together, but even with their combined total, they may struggle to form a government.
That’s because the military-drafted constitution allows an unelected 250-member Senate to take part in the vote to appoint the prime minister.
Candidates must therefore get the support of more than half of the combined houses, or 376 votes, to take the top spot.
Pheu Thai and MFP seem unlikely to reach this figure.
Analysts have therefore said that Prayuth’s return as prime minister cannot be ruled out, despite his party’s dismal position in the polls. After all, it was the Senate itself that helped unanimously elect Prayuth to office in 2019, as head of a 19-party coalition.
For this reason, many will also be looking at the smaller parties.
These include the Palang Pracharat Party (People’s State Power Party), led by Prayuth’s deputy Prawit Wongsuwan, and the Bhumjaithai Party (Thai Pride Party), which has strong regional support in the northeast of Thailand
What are the possible outcomes?
Analysts saw three main possible scenarios; The return of Prayuth with the support of the Senate, a coalition between Pheu Thai and MFP, or a partnership between Pheu Thai and the small Palang Pracharat Party.
The first scenario would result in a minority government.
“This would mean a deformed government, legislative gridlock and government collapse during key votes,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of international relations at Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University. “However, the Prayut regime may be desperate to keep Move Forward and Pheu Thai out of power, preferring to cross a bridge at the same time.”
The second possibility may not even work.
Senator-designates are likely to block a Pheu Thai-MFP government because of their opposition to the smaller party’s radical reform agenda.
This leaves a potential coalition between Pheu Thai and Palang Pracharat.
“The third plausible case is the most practical,” Thitinan said. Palang Prachat leader Prawit is a former general and a deal between the two parties “would break the vote in the Senate and possibly be palatable to the palace.”
Amidst all the uncertainty, what is clear is that the process of forming a government looks like it will be a long process.
Thai voters may have to wait weeks, possibly months to find out what their next government will look like.
