By Tara John and Stefano Pozzebon, CNN
(CNN) — President of Ecuador Guillermo Lasso appeared before lawmakers on Tuesday in a showdown with potentially dramatic consequences: The embattled president faces a looming impeachment vote but could turn the tables on his political foes through a constitutional clause known as “mutual death.”
The country’s opposition-led National Assembly is preparing to vote on the impeachment of Lasso, who is accused of embezzlement and interfering in the negotiation of a shipping contract related to the export of petroleum products. Lasso has insisted that he is innocent and says that the allegations are politically motivated.
Lawmakers are expected to vote on Lasso’s impeachment over the weekend.
But he could preempt the vote by dissolving the assembly, a tactic known as muerte cruzada (mutual death). That would mean Lasso’s resignation, triggering early elections for both the presidency and the National Assembly, according to a clause in Ecuador’s constitution.
Both scenarios could increase political unrest in a country beset by criminal violence, analysts say. Ecuador has faced spiraling drug-related crime rates, prison riots and a recent series of high-profile assassination attempts, which have left many afraid to leave their homes .
Ordinary Ecuadorians worry about what’s to come. Romulo Ricachon and Washington Zamora, who work together selling fruit and vegetables at a street market in the southern capital of Quito, say they usually agree, but that Lasso’s possible removal has divided their opinions.
While Ricachon believes that Ecuador’s president, Lasso, should complete his term, Zamora thinks that the president’s time is up and that the country’s problems require a new leader.
“I think the country is broken, in a way that never happened under previous governments as it happened with this one. Honestly, we are in pieces: the business is not moving anything, you can’t sell anything”. Zamora told CNNE.
“They push Lasso out, and who comes next? Who’s going to take over? It’s a little complicated, and that’s going to mean more crime, isn’t it?” answered Ricachon. He believes that crime and insecurity are the biggest challenges facing the country.
Why is Lasso so unpopular?
Lasso, a self-made millionaire, ran on a platform of liberal values before coming to power in 2021, promising more foreign direct investment and encouraging entrepreneurship. He was praised for a successful Covid-19 vaccination campaign at the start of his term, enjoying high approval ratings at the time.
He came down shortly after.
Last year, amid weeks of protests over rising fuel and food prices, Lasso survived another impeachment attempt. But he has struggled to work with the National Assembly and has implemented several states of emergency to stem the bloodshed in the country, which has seen hundreds of deaths in brutal prison riots between rival gangs, with little success, critics say.
The former banker is also losing political capital fast. In February, opposition parties won key mayoral posts in Quito and Guayaquil, a major city. In February, a referendum that supported eight reforms, including allowing the extradition of criminals, failed.
Last week, lawmakers re-elected opposition deputy Virgilio Saquicela as president of the National Assembly, with 96 votes. Lasso’s coalition currently has 25 seats in the legislative chamber.
What is the impeachment process like?
After the president finishes his defense on Tuesday and leaves the legislature, each of the 137 members of Ecuador’s National Assembly will have ten minutes to speak.
Saquicela, the president of the National Assembly, will then set a date in five days for the impeachment vote. A supermajority, or 92 votes out of 137, will be needed for the motion to pass, opening impeachment proceedings.
If Lasso is dismissed, his vice-president Alfredo Borrero will assume the presidency until the next general election in 2025.
Analysts warn that ordinary Ecuadorians are unlikely to see much benefit from a political handover. “There is nothing to suggest that he (Borrero) would be better equipped than Lasso to deal with Ecuador’s rising crime rates and struggling economy,” Will Freeman, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN. .
“It might tame the conflict between the executive and legislative powers, but it would not solve the biggest forces destabilizing life in Ecuador: crime, poverty and an outflow of migrants not seen in twenty years years”.
What happens if Lasso invokes death cross?
If Lasso decides to invoke mutual death, the National Assembly would be dissolved while Lasso and his government would remain in office until new general elections are held in about six months.
During that time, Lasso will rule by decree, a politically tempting but risky bet, as Ecuador’s opposition and the influential federation of indigenous organizations have promised mass protests.
Such a move could even exacerbate Ecuador’s fragile security problems.
“In the short term, implementing la muerte cruzada would absolutely cause instability,” Freeman said. “Lasso is too unpopular to benefit from the impression that he is overriding checks and balances to finally do something,” he added.
Still, there’s a chance that Lasso can overcome the instability, and “there’s a long-term possibility that he can use rule-by-decree to regain at least some of his former popularity,” Freeman said.
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