WASHINGTON — Ron DeSantis formally enters the 2024 Republican presidential race as a different underdog than Donald Trump, but also an underdog with a chance.
While Trump’s lead in the polls has grown in recent months, DeSantis still has more money, fewer legal problems and a discernible path to victory, several Republicans and political analysts say, if he can execute on the campaign trail. electoral
“The news of his electoral death is greatly exaggerated,” said Alex Stroman, a former Republican political consultant based in South Carolina, one of the first states in next year’s primary.
Ron DeSantis plans to formally enter the 2024 presidential race next week
Ron DeSantis’ donors know he’s struggling. They still want him to be president in 2024.
Pollster Frank Luntz, who has worked with a variety of Republicans over the years, including House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, said DeSantis “is the most viable challenger to Trump, and that’s why Trump is attacking him so much”.
To be competitive with Trump, DeSantis, who is expected to formally enter the race in the coming days, has several tasks to accomplish. Between them:
Make the case against Trump
DeSantis and other GOP rivals have been reluctant to directly attack Trump, even though the former president has been accused of hush money payments and found liable by a civil jury for sexual abuse.
Instead, Trump has built his leadership by attacking the investigations as politically motivated, turning resentment into support within his political base.
While directly attacking Trump risks alienating a sizable number of Republican voters, political analyst Lara Brown said DeSantis must do so and that “non-involvement is not an option.”
At the very least, DeSantis must respond to Trump’s numerous attacks on him, items ranging from Social Security taxes to his lawsuit with Disney.
“The only thing Trump supporters respect is strength and perpetual struggle,” said Brown, author of Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants. “If DeSantis wants to win his approval, then he needs to show that he is stronger and willing to fight harder than Trump.”
He added, “DeSantis needs to attack Trump and land his punches.”
Argue eligibility
DeSantis has already begun to contrast with Trump in one important area: the ability to win a general election against President Joe Biden.
On a Thursday call with donors, DeSantis noted that Trump’s poll numbers are falling with independent voters in key battleground states. DeSantis said there are only three truly viable candidates in the presidential race: him, Trump and Biden, and only two who can win a general election: him and Biden.
DeSantis also noted that Trump and his Make America Great Again (MAGA) have always struggled in national elections. The Trump-led party lost control of Congress in 2018, lost the presidency in 2020 and failed to regain control of the Senate in 2022; he regained control of the House, narrowly.
As he makes his case, DeSantis must also avoid alienating Trump voters by arguing that he agrees with many of the former president’s policies, but doesn’t have his baggage.
“He has to convince Republicans that he can continue Trump’s agenda without Trump’s character,” Luntz said.
spend wisely
Money shouldn’t be an issue with DeSantis, analysts said, but he must spend it well on ads and voter outreach designed to promote his record in Florida and draw contrasts with Trump.
If anything, the new challenger has an economic advantage over Trump.
If that includes supporting political action committees, DeSantis had access to about $116 million as of early May to Trump’s $86.1 million, according to a USA TODAY analysis.
Ron DeSantis has more campaign funds than Donald Trump heading into 2024
Be nicer
DeSantis also needs to spend some of that money on his image.
The governor sometimes looks bad with voters on the stump. Florida lawmakers who endorsed Trump over DeSantis said the governor has rejected them.
Trump has mockingly suggested that DeSantis needs a “personality transplant.”
Republican consultant Liz Mair said DeSantis needs to let people get to know him, whether it’s his years with the Yale baseball team to his life at home with wife Casey and their three children.
“He has to sell himself as a person, not just as a governor,” Mair said.
To that end, DeSantis dropped by a restaurant during a visit Friday to New Hampshire.
The ultimate task: win early
A Reuters/Ipsos poll this week gave Trump a significant lead over DeSantis among Republican voters, 49 percent to 21 percent. “Trump has gained ground and DeSantis has lost ground in the last three months,” said pollster Chris Jackson, senior vice president at Ipsos.
Whatever strategies DeSantis uses in the coming months, they all revolve around the same long-term goal: catch the favorite. Jackson said, “Someone, DeSantis or someone else, is going to have to start going after Trump directly.”
DeSantis’ effort to close the gap involves complex short-term strategies with a basic long-term goal: to catch the favorite when the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries roll around.
Stroman, the South Carolina Republican who said he doesn’t know who he will support in 2024, said “the race is Trump’s to lose” and that next year’s race “happens in early states.”
“The process is built in a way that allows for surprises,” Stroman said. “Trump loses Iowa and it’s over.”
