Republican concerns are growing that Colorado is falling further into Democratic hands after recent losses and close calls in more conservative parts of the state.
The latest blow to the GOP in the Centennial State came this week when Republicans lost the mayoral race in Colorado Springs, marking the first time in decades that a member of the party would not take the helm of the conservative stronghold.
That followed a near upset last year when Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) nearly lost her re-election bid in one of the biggest upsets of the Legislature.
Colorado’s changing political landscape, which Republicans believe is due to a culmination of factors, comes as the party seeks to hold on to its slim majority in the House in next year’s elections.
“Overall, in Colorado, we saw a swing to the left that was totally unexpected” in the November midterms, said Sandra Hagen Solin, founder of lobbying firm Capitol Solutions, who has worked on the republican politics
“Historically, Colorado has been a place where people vote for the person, and historically there is a lot of vote splitting. And in this election cycle, it was very much a vote around the party for the Democrats,” he added.
Residents of Colorado Springs on Tuesday elected political newcomer and independent candidate Yemi Mobolade to take on their city leader over Republican Wayne Williams, a former Colorado secretary of state. It will be the first time in 45 years that a Republican will not be mayor of the city.
Results from the initial 12-candidate mayoral race in April had shown early indicators that Mobolade was leading the race, but Tuesday’s runoff margin showed a remarkable 15-point victory in a stronghold that previously it was republicans
“It’s clear that Colorado Springs is less conservative than it used to be. When I was chairman here (of the El Paso County Republican Party) we had no Democratic state representatives. Now we have three,” Williams explained after his defeat electoral, according to The Gazette. “So there are significant changes that have taken place and I congratulate Yemi on an excellent campaign.”
While experts attribute this wide-margin victory to a few factors: Mobolade’s strong campaign, a divided GOP and the state’s rapid growth, which has affected cities like Colorado Springs and changed electoral dynamics, election cycles past have pointed to a changing political landscape throughout the year. at least the last decade.
In 2016, former President Trump won El Paso County, which includes Colorado Springs, by more than 20 points. But in 2020, Trump had only won the county by 11 points. Joe O’Dea, the Republican Senate challenger who lost last cycle to Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), won the county by a 9-point margin with 55 percent of the vote.
“This is a loss for a Republican candidate,” former state GOP chairman Dick Wadhams said of O’Dea’s margin of victory in El Paso.
Boebert’s congressional district provides another data point. He represents the state’s 3rd Congressional District, which covers the southern and western parts of the state. In 2018, former Rep. Scott Tipton (R-Colo.), who represented the district before Boebert, won by 8 points.
Boebert, on the other hand, won it in 2020 by 6 points and in 2022 by less than a percentage point. Democrat Adam Frisch, who is challenging Boebert in the 2022 legislature, has already announced a second bid to win back the district as Republicans prepare for another competitive election.
Republicans say there are a few reasons why Colorado’s once-purple state has started to trend blue in recent years. One such reason is the changing demographics of the state, as Colorado has seen an increase in people moving there.
Approximately 744,000 people moved to the state between 2010 and 2020, according to data from the United States Census Bureau — an increase of almost 15 percent over a decade that was double the growth of the domestic country, according to The Colorado Sun. Experts say the migration includes people from states like California, which has changed the political landscape. The newcomers are also younger.
This goes hand in hand with an increase in unaffiliated voter registration. In November 2016, unaffiliated voters represented around 35% of the electoral electorate in Colorado. Democrats and Republicans made up 32% at the time.
But last November, unaffiliated voters made up 45 percent of the electoral electorate, while Democrats 28% and Republicans 25%.
“I think demographics is literally the biggest reason Colorado is turning bluer. People moving into our state are generally more liberal, and people moving out of our state are generally more conservative,” said Kristi Burton Brown, who recently stepped down as state GOP chair.
Burton Brown explained that the increase in unaffiliated voters in the state is due in part to automatic voter registration. But he also suggested there has been a rise in unaffiliated voters because “a lot of younger people are disillusioned with how divisive politics has become.”
“I think if either party could bring back a more basic respect for politics and a positive outlook that moves people forward instead of always saying why people are angry, that could attract younger people to a party,” he said. to say. said
But other experts say there’s a bigger problem for Republicans, one that’s hurting even some of their best candidates, like O’Dea.
“The Republican brand in this state has been so damaged not just by Trump, even though he’s very toxic in the state, but beyond that, just by his kind of taking extreme positions on previous candidates, on initiatives elections that were often soundly defeated on abortion. and some of the other issues that O’Dea couldn’t get under the flag,” said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli.
At the same time, recent events have shown a divided GOP. Former state Rep. Dave Williams, an election denialist who tried to get the anti-Biden catchphrase “Let’s go to Brandon” as part of his name on a ballot for a House GOP primary he lost last cycle, win the state Republican election for party chair in March.
This caused several well-known Republicans to leave the party. Hagen Solin, the founder of the lobbying firm Capitol Solutions, suggested that the state party leadership does not reflect what the state GOP used to embody.
“We’ve had a wonderful history of Republican leadership in this state that is quite moderate over the years, but currently those in leadership positions within the party … don’t reflect that kind of more moderate, pragmatic tone,” he explained. “And it will take some time for us, for the Republican Party, to restore that trust.”
In an interview with The Hill, Williams dismissed that criticism.
“They are excuses from failed Republicans who want nothing more than to support the exhausted Republicans who have failed us,” he explained.
“We’re not necessarily here to favor one side over another, but we’re certainly not going to let the failed consultants and establishment Republicans of the past escape the blame they deserve. They’re the ones who failed us,” he added. .
Williams suggested that O’Dea did poorly in his career because he “wasn’t a quality candidate that people could believe in.”
On the mayoral race in Colorado Springs, the former lawmaker said the first round of the mayoral race in April had left the Republican candidate bruised heading into the runoff, but also suggested that grassroots Republicans had concerns about Williams.
Ultimately, observers say Republicans will need to rebuild their brand in the state if they have any hope of succeeding in competitive House districts like the 3rd and 8th in 2024, and even winning the Senate and gubernatorial races in 2024. 2026.
“I think the Republicans are in a bit of a ‘time out’ in the desert until they’ve gotten off the Trump-MAGA brand, which could take a long time,” said Democratic strategist Craig Hughes. “I think outside of that, they’re going to need very unique candidates who have unique stories.”
