It’s hard to understate how close America is to reaching the debt ceiling.
There are conversations, again. But no deal. No invoice Nothing close, as Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen reiterated on NBC that the “hard” deadline was June 1. Yellen added that the government would have difficulty paying its bills beyond June 15 if Congress does not act.
So how can the sides avoid an epic collision with the debt ceiling?
At least one Republican lawmaker Fox spoke with suggested the government was rushing to cruise control toward the debt limit, and Congress had passed the point of no return in the crisis.
GOP NEGOTIATOR SAYS ‘NOT PRODUCTIVE’ DEBT CEIL TALK BETWEEN WHITE HOUSE, GOP
Representative Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., center, speaks to members of the media with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., center left, after a meeting with the President Biden at the White House in Washington, DC, USA, Tuesday, May 16, 2023. Republicans hardened their battle lines ahead of the crucial White House meeting to avoid a first US default, the latest sign of trouble in debt limit negotiations. (Ting Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
“There is too much to do and too little time if the date is June 1,” said the lawmaker who asked not to be identified. “No way.”
It’s unclear how President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., bridge that chasm. Observers say such intense negotiations should have been underway at least as early as April, with the expectation that the parties would have hiccups like Friday’s. This break cost the parties almost three days of talks. And anyone who has seen negotiations like these knows that these speed bumps are inevitable.
There may be more. So they may not have enough time to finish it.
This is:
Let’s say there is a deal for Tuesday. It will probably take until Thursday to put the legislative text into shape. McCarthy insists he will adhere to the House’s “72-hour rule.” This allows MPs to study and examine the bill. It also means the House can’t even debate and vote on the bill until next weekend.
So the Senate may not even get the legislation up until Monday, May 29 – Memorial Day. Even if the Senate is truly on its way, this could take until Wednesday, May 31 to wrap things up. But more likely is June 1 or 2.
And remember, this is the timeline if all goes well.
THE DEBT CRYSTAL BALL
But what we’ve left out of this analysis are the potential contours of a deal, not to mention what it would take to get the votes to pass that package.
here we come
It’s about the math.
Mixing the cocktail of Republican and Democratic votes to pass a still-notional bill in the House (and the Senate, we’ll get to that in a moment) involves a very precise, but mysterious, political alchemy. House Republicans have long talked about wanting “a majority of the majority” to support any potential package. This concept goes back decades with House Republicans. But that’s 2023. Also, McCarthy endured the longest speaker’s run since 1859 to land the job.
President Biden speaks to the press after meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell at the White House in Washington, DC on May 9, 2023. (Photo by BRENDAN SMILOWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
How does McCarthy accept any deal that doesn’t have nearly 200 of the 222 Republicans in the House in favor?
Between 20 and 40 House Republicans are likely to be stubborn on any bill that doesn’t replicate the debt ceiling bill drafted last month.
Fox is told McCarthy’s floor is 180 GOP yes. A well-informed source told Fox that anything south of 180 could mean a conservative Republican moves to “abandon the chair” and force a vote for the president in the middle of Congress.
This has always been the president’s concern. Can he accept a deal that could jeopardize his own political career? Or, is there some way to perfect it so that everyone thinks they’ve secured a win?
HOUSE DEMOCRATS BEGIN ‘Hail Mary’ ATTEMPT TO OVERTURN PRESIDENT MCCARTHY AND RAISE DEBT LIMIT
This begs the question of what coalition of House Democrats would support a plan? How many Democrats can afford or afford to lose House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y.? However, this conversation isn’t really about Jeffries. This is President Biden. The President confronts the Liberal MPs who demand that he only use the “14th Amendment” (which says that federal public debts will not be in question) and concludes the argument. Progressives are wary of President Biden giving up too much, especially on domestic spending and work requirements for those on welfare.
Who exactly will be willing to walk the plank to do that or stay true to their principles?
Here’s another challenge for McCarthy: The House debt ceiling bill could pose a sticking point in the negotiations.
President Biden abstained from negotiations until the House passed his bill, even though he got zero Democratic votes and has no chance of overcoming a filibuster in the Democratic-controlled Senate.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., speaks to reporters just after the House Republican majority narrowly approved a sweeping debt ceiling package as they try to push President Joe Biden to negotiate federal spending, at the Capitol in Washington. Wednesday, April 26, 2023. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
However, there is something worth noting about the House GOP debt ceiling bill. The passage of this measure was McCarthy’s biggest achievement since taking the speaker’s gavel. He had little left in these negotiations if the House did not approve the Republican package. But the passage of this measure could also fit McCarthy.
Fox is told that more and more House Republicans are refusing to budge on this bill. McCarthy pushed so hard to get lawmakers to accept this package that many are reluctant to accept anything less than this measure.
Also, McCarthy is not former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. Pelosi often engineered legislation to get the necessary vote matrix. A senior House Republican told Fox last week that McCarthy is more “broad” and hands-off. He wants members to reach consensus first. He offers himself to them.
This can work internally. But a deal on the debt ceiling has to be something President Biden and at least some Democrats can agree to. Otherwise, it’s just a debate among Republicans.
This brings us to the quintessence of “mathematics”. The vote count surrounding the House GOP debt ceiling bill is the centerpiece. How many Republicans are married to this bill? How many can go for anything less than this bill? This will set the tone for where this debate will go over the next few days.
Now, let’s go back in time.
The casual observer might think that lawmakers are all crammed into Washington until they find a solution. It is not the case. Only a few were in DC over the weekend. The House of Representatives is in session this week, but is scheduled to recess next week. So what happens if the weekend comes and there is no legislative traffic on the debt ceiling? Are the Republicans keeping the House in session or letting everyone go until there is something to vote on?
This cuts two ways.
Congressional leaders could use “Stockholm syndrome” tactics to convince members to vote yes. In other words, keep them all “captive” in Washington until they come and vote yes. But that could mean setting some of the House recess on fire, not to mention several Memorial Day activities lawmakers like to attend at home.
It is generally thought that keeping everyone in DC could help the leaders. It makes it easy to count and track where the votes are. However, Fox is told that holding back everyone in Washington could spark dissent if some Republicans don’t like Mr McCarthy’s plan to end Mr Biden.
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A surefire way to flag members and make them even grumpier? Keep everyone here for a holiday weekend and blow up some of the recess, with nothing to vote on.
It is not clear which way the sides may take.
But what if there is nothing to vote for?
That spells trouble as the country moves toward its June 1 debt ceiling deadline.
Chad Pergram currently serves as Senior Congressional Correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based in Washington, DC
Chad Pergram currently serves as Senior Congressional Correspondent for FOX News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based in Washington, DC
