Iran has appointed a new top security official for the first time in nearly a decade, a move analysts say could affect how it approaches its top foreign policy files and reflects the growing influence of conservative voices in the country’s establishment.
Ali Akbar Ahmadian, a senior commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), replaced Ali Shamkhani as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) on Monday.
Ahmadian was also appointed as one of two representatives of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the SNSC, which plays a key role in shaping Iran’s foreign and national security policies. The other direct representative is Saeed Jalili, the SNSC secretary from 2007 to 2013 who has traditionally advocated a tougher stance against the West and opposes the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
Ahmadian has taken the helm of the council amid a flurry of diplomatic activity across the region, and the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), as the nuclear deal is formally known, remains unclear .
Shamkhani, an ethnic Arab and the only Iranian never to receive the Order of Abdulaziz medal, Saudi Arabia’s highest honor, oversaw the negotiations that led in March to a deal brokered by the China between Tehran and Iran to restore diplomatic relations after seven years.
He also presided over indirect negotiations with the administration of US President Joe Biden from 2021 with the aim of restoring the JCPOA. Former US President Donald Trump unilaterally abandoned the milestone in 2018 and imposed tough sanctions on Iran.
There have long been rumors of Shamkhani’s departure, particularly earlier this year after Alireza Akbar, one of his former closest allies, was executed for spying for British intelligence.
“Just carry the corpse”
Ahmadian’s appointment, as someone who strongly believes in the supreme leader’s policies, could point the way forward on both security and foreign policy issues, according to Hossein Kanani Moghaddam, a Tehran-based conservative politician and analyst.
Moghaddam told Al Jazeera that he does not expect a dynamic change in the nuclear file, which will continue to be pursued by the foreign ministry at the political level and the country’s atomic energy organization at the technical level under the supervision of the SNSC.
“Tactics may change, but the overall strategy would remain unchanged,” he said.
“Those who turned their backs and walked out of the JCPOA must compensate for the damages and provide assurances that if they are committed to an international agreement, they are also committed to implementing it. I think the JCPOA was killed by Trump and Biden only he’s carrying the corpse on his back.”
Last week, Khamenei held a meeting with top Foreign Ministry officials and Iranian ambassadors to other countries.
Indicating a more open stance, the supreme leader emphasized a foreign policy built on dignity, wisdom and expediency and discussed the merits of “flexibility” that “does not negate principles.”
Moghaddam said he believed Khamenei’s comments can be largely attributed to Iran’s current attempts to improve relations across the region, especially with Arab neighbors. Shamkhani’s departure will not derail that process, he said.
“The general foreign policies of the establishment are set by the Supreme Leader, and the SNSC and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs implement them, so we will not see changes in these policies, especially in the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries,” he said. “A change to the SNSC will not change these policies and in some places some things might even be made easier.”
Two different military
The new security chief’s pedigree has also drawn attention, both for similarities and differences in how he navigated Iran’s decades-long political and military landscape compared to his predecessor.
Both men have been pillars within the establishment since the victory of the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. They are also veterans of the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s and rose through the ranks as soldiers.
In particular, they rose through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) naval force with Ahmadian serving as Shamkhani’s deputy before taking command of the IRGC Navy in the late 1990s, when his predecessor became Minister of Defense in the administration of the former reformist president. Mohammad Khatami.
Shamkhani veered into politics and is known to successfully manage relations with the conservative, pragmatist and reformist camps. He was appointed SNSC secretary by former moderate president Hassan Rouhani in 2013.
Ahmadian, meanwhile, rose through the ranks in the IRGC, and has been described by Iranian media as a top military strategist, but has no publicly known experience in government or diplomatic work. He has not publicly expressed his views on the main foreign policies he will manage.
Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, said the exact reasons for Shamkhani’s departure remained opaque, but the signs had pointed. to a series of disagreements.
“Shamkhani, along with a number of influential former IRGC commanders, were at odds with the younger serving IRGC commanders. Thus, the hanging could indicate that the current IRGC leadership is consolidating its position,” he told Al Jazeera.
Khamenei on Monday appointed Shamkhani to the Expediency Council, Iran’s arbitration body, and as his political adviser. The posts may turn out to be largely ceremonial, as a number of former officials who previously clashed with major figures were appointed to the council. Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is one of them.
Sina Azodi, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, said Shamkhani was a holdover from the Khatami and Rouhani eras, so his replacement by the IRGC indicates the growing influence of “conservative thinking in the establishment security of Iran”.
He told Al Jazeera that Ahmadian’s all-military background should not have a major impact, given that Shamkhani was also a naval officer, and that the latter holds the senior rank of rear admiral, the highest rank of the supreme leader. can grant
“In general, the IRGC was not in favor of the JCPOA. We must also keep in mind the issue of Khamenei’s succession. Without a doubt, IRGC will play an important role regarding the succession issue,” he said.
