MIAMI — When Gov. Ron DeSantis announced his run for president Wednesday, confirming years of speculation, he delivered a Twitter-verse speech that addressed issues most Republicans would get behind: He would build a border wall, end inflation and, by a large majority, President Joe Biden would win in November 2024.
But DeSantis followed that standard campaign rhetoric with a wide-ranging discussion that touched on a number of more niche issues. Along with billionaire Elon Musk and a supporting cast of other sympathetic conservatives, DeSantis delved into the concerns of a certain kind of connected Republican: tech censorship and cryptocurrency regulation.
“As president, we’re going to protect the ability to do things like bitcoin,” DeSantis said at one point.
The scattered nature of his audio-only Twitter launch event highlighted a broader challenge for DeSantis as he moves forward with his presidential campaign: How can he assemble a winning coalition of Republican voters? Young and old, white and blue collar, Never Trump and Ultra MAGA: DeSantis will likely need the support of a group of voters with broad priorities to best former President Donald Trump for the GOP nomination.
You will also have to walk a numerical tightrope. Trump leads DeSantis by an average of more than 30 points in national polls, according to RealClearPolitics. Three pollsters interviewed by the Tampa Bay Times estimated that at least a third of Republican primary voters are unwavering Trump supporters. DeSantis has no chance of attracting that block, they said.
“This is a very large base to start with in a multi-candidate field,” said Matthew Shelter, a partner at the political polling firm Beacon Research.
Beacon has found that roughly 40 percent of Republican voters consider themselves Trump supporters rather than the Republican Party, Shelter said.
How DeSantis plans to get the other two-thirds
When fundraisers from around the country gathered at the Four Seasons Hotel Miami earlier this week to give DeSantis a big chunk of money — he raised $8.2 million in the first 24 hours, according to the campaign – were first briefed by the governor’s top pollster and other staff about their potential path to victory.
The goal was not to take anyone out of Trump’s stronghold. Instead, the DeSantis camp has been strategizing how best to capture the rest of the voters.
Evangelical voters are an important part of this strategy. DeSantis’ supporters believe they will be swayed by his anti-woke crusades against LGBTQ+ inclusive school lessons, as well as his recent signing of a bill banning most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy.
Monday night, DeSantis spoke at the National Religious Broadcasters convention, billed as “the world’s largest gathering of Christian broadcasters.”
“The people in power now don’t like people of faith, and so we have to rein in this government,” DeSantis told them.
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DeSantis’ team has also touted his 2022 success in winning over female voters, a bloc that Trump lost in the 2016 and 2020 general elections. And DeSantis has historically done well with college-educated Republicans.
“You need to reach 50 percent plus one of Republican voters, and I think DeSantis has the ability to get the support of every constituency in the Republican Party,” said lobbyist Justin Sayfie, who was one of the people who raise money for DeSantis in Miami. “From the Chamber of Commerce types to the Make America Great Again types to the anti-wokeness types to the evangelicals — with all of these constituencies, Governor DeSantis can do well.”
Brad Coker, a longtime Jacksonville-based political pollster, said DeSantis might be able to build a coalition by winning over staunch conservatives first. If he is able to outlast the other non-Trump candidates, he will be the only alternative available to moderates.
DeSantis’ prospects are better in a one-on-one matchup against Trump, polls suggest, but the Republican field continues to expand, which could dilute DeSantis’ support. US Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina entered the race last week, and former Vice President Mike Pence is expected to announce in the coming weeks.
“How does DeSantis reach moderate Republicans? He’s got to make it a two-person race,” Coker said. “The enemy of my enemy is my friend, and that’s the principle DeSantis will use to attract people from the ‘center’ caucus of the Republican Party.” .
DeSantis already appears to be trying to one-up Trump on red-meat issues like abortion. Earlier this month, Trump called the abortion bill signed by DeSantis “tough.” In response, DeSantis noted that this legislation has the support of “99% of pro-lifers.”
And in a dozen media appearances Thursday, DeSantis continued to bash Trump from the right.
“I don’t know what happened to Donald Trump. He’s a different guy today than when he ran in 2015 and 2016,” he told an interviewer.
Find DeSantis base
Karoline Leavitt, spokeswoman for the pro-Trump super PAC Make America Great Again Inc., said DeSantis’ Spaces Twitter campaign launch included more mentions of “DEI,” an acronym for Diversity, Equity and Inclusion Initiatives which DeSantis opposes, that inflation, a sign that his campaign is out of touch with regular voters.
“Where is your base?” she said “He’s polling closer to (former Arkansas Gov.) Asa Hutchinson than Donald Trump at this point in the race, so he’s got no basis.”
Patrick Ruffini, a Republican pollster, he wrote in an analysis Earlier this month, DeSantis is more likely to appeal to the bloc of Republican voters most concerned about awakening. These voters see political correctness as a blight on schools and corporations and support candidates who want to fight it. They are more likely to be younger, college-educated and non-white than other factions of the party, Ruffini wrote.
They are also more likely to use Twitter, where DeSantis launched his presidential campaign.
State Rep. Alex Rizo, chairman of the Miami-Dade County Republican Party that held a fundraiser for DeSantis at the Four Seasons, said he “loved” the idea of making the announcement on Twitter.
“As Republicans, we want to start having younger people who are engaged,” Rizo said. “When it comes to technology, there’s no better way to get there.”
The DeSantis campaign hopes its focus on evangelical voters will pay dividends in Iowa, home to a large number of Christian conservatives. (Trump lost the Iowa caucuses to US Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016.)
The governor’s initial state primary strategy seems geared toward proving to Republicans that he is a winner. He has shifted much of his campaign energy to early primary states, ditching a rumored event in his hometown of Dunedin for events next week in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Nick Iarossi, a key DeSantis fundraiser and longtime ally, said he’s noticed an “instant transformation” now that he’s officially in the race, saying DeSantis is excited to compete.
“I was tired of operating with one hand behind my back,” Iarossi said. “The guy I saw (Thursday) night was very nice, very energetic … (and) he’s going to be very effective in the campaign.”
Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School poll, which most recently had Trump leading DeSantis by 21 points, noted that there is room for DeSantis’ stature in the party to evolve because he is less familiar with Republicans across the country.
“While Trump is absolutely universally known, there are still Republicans learning about DeSantis,” Franklin said.
Still, pollsters say, DeSantis has a lot of work to do.
Tim Malloy, poll analyst for the Quinnipiac University poll, was blunt about DeSantis’ core support.
“Whatever DeSantis’ basis is right now, it’s not enough,” Malloy said.
Times/Herald Tallahassee reporter Ana Ceballos contributed to this report.
