ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Turkey’s voters return to the polls Sunday to decide whether the country’s longtime leader stretches his increasingly authoritarian rule into a third decade or is ousted by a challenger who has promised to restore a more democratic society.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has been in charge of Turkey for 20 years, is favored to win a new five-year term in the second round after winning a landslide victory in the first round on 14 May.
The divisive populist who turned his country into a geopolitical player finished four percentage points ahead of Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of a six-party alliance and leader of Turkey’s main centre-left opposition party. Erdogan’s performance came despite crippling inflation and the effects of a devastating earthquake three months ago.
Kilicdaroglu (pronounced KEH-lich-DAHR-OH-loo), a 74-year-old former bureaucrat, has described the second round as a referendum on the country’s future.
More than 64 million people are eligible to vote when the polls open at 8am
Turkey does not have a ballot box, but preliminary results are expected within hours of polls closing at 5pm.
The final decision could have implications far beyond Ankara because Turkey is at the crossroads of Europe and Asia, and plays a key role in NATO.
Turkey vetoed Sweden’s bid to join the alliance and bought Russian missile defense systems, prompting the U.S. to kick Turkey out of a U.S.-led fighter jet project. But Erdogan’s government also helped broker a crucial deal that allowed grain shipments from Ukraine and averted a global food crisis.
The May 14 election saw an 87 percent turnout, and a strong turnout is expected on Sunday, reflecting voters’ devotion to the election in a country where freedom of expression and assembly have been suppressed.
If he wins, Erdogan, 69, could remain in power until 2028. After three terms as prime minister and two as president, the devout Muslim who heads the conservative and religious Justice and Development Party, or AKP , is already Turkey’s oldest leader. .
The first half of Erdogan’s term included reforms that allowed the country to begin talks to join the European Union and economic growth that lifted many out of poverty. But he later moved to crack down on media and freedoms and concentrated more power in his hands, particularly after a failed coup attempt that Turkey says was orchestrated by US-based Islamic cleric Fethullah Gulen . The cleric denies his involvement.
Erdogan transformed the presidency from a largely ceremonial role to a powerful position through a narrowly won 2017 referendum that scrapped Turkey’s parliamentary system of government. He was the first directly elected president in 2014 and won the 2018 election that inaugurated the executive presidency.
The May 14 election was the first that Erdogan did not win outright.
Critics blame Erdogan’s unconventional economic policies for fueling inflation that has fueled a cost-of-living crisis. Many also criticized his government for its slow response to the earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey.
Still, Erdogan has retained the support of conservative voters who remain loyal to him to raise the profile of Islam in the country that was founded on secular principles and to increase the country’s influence in world politics.
In an attempt to woo inflation-stricken voters, he has increased wages and pensions and subsidized electricity and gas bills, while touting Turkey’s defense industry and infrastructure projects. He also focused his re-election campaign on a promise to rebuild the areas affected by the earthquake, including the construction of 319,000 homes during the year. Many see it as a source of stability.
Kilicdaroglu is a mild-mannered former civil servant who has led the pro-secular Republican People’s Party, or CHP, since 2010. He campaigned on a promise to reverse Erdogan’s democratic backsliding, restore the economy by returning to more mainstream policies and improve ties. with the West
In a frantic do-or-die effort to reach nationalist voters in the run-off, Kilicdaroglu promised to send refugees back and ruled out any peace talks with Kurdish militants if elected.
Syrian refugees who have been under Turkey’s temporary protection after fleeing war in neighboring Syria are viewed by many in Turkey as a burden on the country, and their repatriation became a key issue in the election.
Earlier in the week, Erdogan received the endorsement of the third-place candidate, nationalist politician Sinan Ogan, who won 5.2% of the vote and is no longer in the running. Meanwhile, a staunchly anti-immigrant party that had backed Ogan’s candidacy announced it would back Kilicdaroglu.
A Kilicdaroglu defeat would add to Erdogan’s long list of electoral losses and put pressure on him to step down as party chairman.
Erdogan’s AKP party and its allies retained a majority of seats in parliament after legislative elections also held on 14 May. The parliamentary elections will not be repeated on Sunday.
Erdogan’s party also dominated in the quake-hit region, winning 10 of 11 provinces in an area that has traditionally supported the president. Erdogan advanced in the presidential race in eight of these provinces.
As in previous elections, Erdogan used state resources and his control of the media to reach voters.
After the May 14 vote, international observers also pointed to the criminalization of spreading false information and online censorship as evidence that Erdogan had an “unjustified advantage.” Observers also said the election showed the resilience of Turkish democracy.
Erdogan and pro-government media portrayed Kilicdaroglu, who had been backed by the country’s pro-Kurdish party, as colluding with “terrorists” and supporting what they called “deviant” LGBTQ rights.
Kilicdaroglu “takes his orders from Qandil,” Erdogan said repeatedly at recent campaign rallies, a reference to the Iraqi mountains where the leadership of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is based.
“We get our orders from God and the people,” he said.
The election was held as the country marked the 100th anniversary of its establishment as a republic, following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.
