NEW YORK (AP) — When Republican Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina launched his campaign for the White House last week, notoriously prickly former President Donald Trump welcomed his new challenger with open arms.
There were no accusations of disloyalty or nasty name-calling by the GOP front-runner, like the bombardment unleashed when Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, widely considered his primary challenger, joined the race two days later with an announcement wrong Twitter account.
“Good luck to Senator Tim Scott as he enters the Republican presidential primary race,” Trump said. “It’s loading up fast with a lot of people, and Tim is a big step up from Ron DeSanctimonious, who is totally ineligible.”
The contrast underscores not only the fact that Trump sees DeSantis as his most formidable challenger, but also basic math: He and his team have long believed that the more candidates entering the Republican primary race, the better for Trump. They operate under the assumption that no other candidate will be able to consolidate enough of the anti-Trump vote to topple him. Other candidates entering the race, they argue, are competing for DeSantis’ share of the vote.
And the field is growing day by day.
In the coming weeks, at least four additional candidates are expected to launch their own campaigns, joining a field that already includes DeSantis, Scott, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson , tech billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy and several longer plans. like conservative radio host Larry Elder.
Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s entry into the race is “imminent,” according to a person familiar with his thinking who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss his plans. Former Vice President Mike Pence is expected to launch his campaign next month, with North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum eyeing June 7 as the launch date. Miami Mayor Francis Suarez told The Associated Press last week that he is “strongly considering” running, as is New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu.
Even former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who has already run for president twice, told CNN recently that he hasn’t taken a third campaign off the table. And Axios reported that Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, who previously said he was focusing on the state election, is reconsidering his plans after dismissing earlier speculation.
“This is an indictment of DeSantis’ disastrous announcement and his dismal poll numbers,” Trump spokesman Steven Cheung said of the upcoming announcements. “DeSantis’ blood is in the water and all the candidates see how weak and weak he is.”
In fact, several of the declared and potential candidates have stepped up their attacks on DeSantis as they compete for second place.
Republicans once warned of a repeat of 2016, when the broad GOP field failed to rally around an alternative to Trump, handing him the nomination. But much of the urgency that once existed among Trump’s Republican rivals to narrow the field has faded in recent months.
“The important point is not how many candidates start the race, but how many stay after they no longer have a chance to win the nomination,” said Whit Ayres, a veteran pollster and Republican strategist. “This is what we learned about the Democratic nomination in 2020. There were many candidates who started the race. But once it became clear that Joe Biden was going to win the nomination, within hours everyone else backed out and endorsed him.”
It’s still too early, Ayers said, to tell who will be the strongest candidate other than Trump.
“The idea that you’re going to decide before the race even starts who’s going to rally from behind is very premature,” he said. “There are so many shoes that could still drop.”
Among them are the ongoing investigations into Trump, including the Justice Department’s investigation into his handling of classified documents and state and federal investigations into his efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Trump has already being indicted in New York and additional criminal charges would create an unprecedented situation with unknown consequences.
New York-based Republican donor Eric Levine, a fierce Trump critic, warned earlier this year of dire consequences if the GOP primary field grows too large. This week, however, Levine played down the significance of the growing number of candidates, noting that many of Trump’s rivals are only polling in the low single digits.
The only “serious candidates” beyond Trump, Levine said, are DeSantis, Haley, Scott, Pence (if he runs) and maybe Sununu and Youngkin, if they get in.
Still, Levine said, “I’d rather have less people, for sure.”
Meanwhile, Trump has tried to project a sense of inevitability and mastery of the field. He told reporters during a golf tournament Thursday that he’s not sure there’s any point in debating given his current polls.
“Unless it comes close, why should anyone debate?” said of DeSantis.
He also urged the party to rally behind him. Democrats, he said, “expect a long, long Republican primary.”
“This is why the Republican Party must unite behind the banner of the MAGA movement,” he said in a video message, referring to his “Make America Great Again” slogan.
Many Republicans appear to believe the party will end up rallying around its strongest Trump challengers, with other candidates stepping aside once they realize they can’t win. But it remains unclear how this will happen, given the political aspirations of those involved. If DeSantis holds onto his second-place finish, some worry that his frosty relations with the other candidates will make the party even less likely to rally behind him.
Meanwhile, candidates like Haley have stepped up their attacks on DeSantis, while others are preparing to join the race. They include Suarez, who would be the only Hispanic candidate in the 2024 field.
The 45-year-old Republican is not well known nationally, but has begun meeting with voters in key swing states like South Carolina and is believed to be sitting on millions of dollars in the bank.
Suarez avoided any criticism of Trump during a recent interview, saying only that the former president “is without a doubt in pole position.”
But he was more willing to highlight what he called DeSantis’ “structural” responsibilities, pointing to the Florida governor’s struggle to build relationships with many Republican officials in the state, including himself. He also pointed to DeSantis’ recent conservative legislative successes and his battle with Disney.
“There are things that, at least what I’ve heard from the donor class, is something that has made them second-guess their support for him,” he said.
