Edmonton –
Internet memes are starting to make memes in the days after Monday’s Alberta provincial election.
“If you voted for Rachel Notley, don’t support Alberta,” said one, referring to the leader of the province’s defeated New Democrats.
“Having the city of Edmonton in Alberta is insulting,” said another, after the provincial capital rejected the United Conservatives who govern in each of its 20 districts.
“The senseless insults and degrading comments posted here are as worthless as Danielle Smith herself,” he responded, attacking the victorious United Conservative Party leader.
These comments reflect concerns that the province is becoming increasingly polarized.
“Citizens appear to have lost the shared sense of purpose and values needed to debate issues of public good respectfully, without alienating or denigrating their neighbours,” concludes Common Ground, a research effort led by University of Alberta academics who has carried out extensive work. surveys on the subject.
The group sponsored a survey conducted by Leger Marketing of more than 1,200 Albertans in January and February 2023. It asked questions about how respondents define their politics, how they view those who disagree with them, what they should do governments and how they should use their power. .
The results are available on the group’s website.
For one thing, the survey suggests that Albertans share more than social media might imply.
“When we use measures of actual policy positions and policy values, Albertans are as progressive as anyone else in Canada,” said political science professor Jared Wesley, who directs Common Ground.
About a third of Albertans (rural, urban, male and female) fall squarely in the middle of the left-right spectrum. Fifty-three percent identify as moderates. Almost half—42 percent—want “a society that puts compassion ahead of prosperity.”
Nor do Albertans care about rigid ideological boundaries. Only a quarter of respondents consider themselves loyal to the party.
Around one in five United Tories preferred Notley to their own party leader. There are even New Democrats who preferred Smith to Notley, though by far less.
Even among those who identify with a party, the lines are not clear. The survey found that 10% of UCP identifiers say they believe in left-wing political ideologies; 13% of New Democrats call themselves conservatives or libertarians.
But that’s not the whole story.
“We need to get away from the idea that there is a polarization between people who think on the left and people who think on the right,” Wesley said. “Most people have a mixture of beliefs, but they are quite firm when it comes to their identity.
“Identity means more than anything now.”
Common Ground found that while Albertans of different political styles may agree on many things, they may not like much.
It found that only seven percent of New Democrats would welcome a UCP member into their family through marriage. Fourteen percent of the UCP think the same with their opponents.
Only 13 percent of NDP IDs would be willing to have a UCP friend. Reversed, the corresponding figure is 16 percent.
Although the left showed more animosity toward its opponents than the right, these positions were reversed when it came to what Common Ground calls “factionalism”—the belief that rivals are not opponents to be persuaded but enemies to be to win.
Thirty-eight percent of UCP supporters see the election “as a war”; 41 percent believe “my party should win every election”; 26 percent agree that “my party should control all government decisions.”
A third of all Albertans disagreed with statements that politicians should concede defeat if they lose and that election rules should be agreed upon by all parties.
Polarization research has been conducted in the US for decades. Wesley compared this data with the results of Common Ground.
“There’s not a lot of evidence of factionalism (in Alberta), thank God. But Alberta is kind of where America was in 2004 on the eve of the Tea Party movement.”
Duane Bratt is a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary who is not part of the Common Ground team. He supports many of his conclusions and says there is a “huge gap” between the parties.
He points to Smith’s pre-election statements that his party only needed the rural vote and enough urban seats. That’s what he accomplished, making his government the first in Alberta’s history to govern by controlling only one of the province’s three traditional power bases: Edmonton, Calgary and Everywhere.
Bratt said the province’s divide was exacerbated by the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which was experienced very differently in rural areas than in cities.
“In the politics of COVID, there is a big rural-urban divide,” he said. “That made all the difference.”
That divide will make it difficult for Smith to unite Alberta, he said. So will the kind of winning candidates who fill some of the UCP seats, many endorsed by the far-right Take Back Alberta movement.
“There’s a feeling of, ‘Shit, they don’t think like we do.'” There are moderates, but many lost their seats.”
Wesley said profound changes in society are driving these divisions, such as the response to climate change in a province dependent on fossil fuels.
On the one hand: “(There are) fears that some people have had for decades that their way of life and their livelihoods are under threat.”
On the other: “People in the laptop class who would like to bridge that gap, but have been so maligned that they’re hard to reach.”
The right leadership could help, Wesley said. But there is also a gap.
“What we need in Canada is a group of leaders who are willing not to play with those basic instincts that will get them the minimum number of seats to win.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published on June 4, 2023.
— Follow Bob Weber Twitter at @row1960
