The ruling junta in Mali is celebration of a constitutional referendum as part of a transition to civilian rule, but experts and political opponents say the real goal is consolidating its power in the increasingly violent and unstable Sahel region, which runs through Mali and several other countries.
The junta, which came to power in a coup in August 2020, has pledged to stabilize the country where violent insurgent Islamist groups compete and each other for control. Instead, violence by Islamists and the junta, backed by the Russian mercenary group Wagner, has increased exponentially, with civilians bearing the brunt of the horror.
The vote has been delayed several times, most recently in February this year, citing logistics reasons Presidential elections will be held in February 2024, although it is unclear whether the junta will stick to that deadline.
Some of the proposed constitutional amendments give more power to the president than to parliament, hence the political opposition. Although it is not clear whether the current leader, Colonel Assimi Goïta, will run in future elections, an ally or representative of the junta will undoubtedly do so. This could effectively legitimize the junta’s control and perpetuate the current violence and instability.
“The fear I have for Mali is that we could indeed see the restoration of military power, which is like going back to the 1970s and 1980s, which African political literature commonly refers to as the ‘Dark Decades,'” according to Daniel. Eizenga of the Center for Strategic Studies in Africa. “It was a really terrible time, though [the current situation] it feels like a kind of prelude to reliving this,” he told Vox in an interview.
The security forces have already votedand civilians will vote on Sunday, June 18: a simple “yes” or “no” in response to whether they approve the junta’s proposed changes to Mali’s 1992 constitution, created by the civilian leadership after the dictator was overthrown Moussa. Traoré in 1991. Opposition to the changes includes a contingent of influential imams who oppose the idea of Mali as a secular country, as well as political parties and civil society groups who reject mechanisms for the junta to consolidate power under the guise of the democratic process. .
However, the international community has pushed for the referendum as part of Mali’s path back to civilian governance; Regardless of the flaws in the process, it is a necessary step in the transition, Leonardo Villalon, a professor of political science and African studies at the University of Florida, told Vox. “This referendum will be limited and flawed, in the sense that the vote will be very difficult to hold in some areas,” he said. “There is precedent for this, and there is precedent for widespread acceptance of this,” especially given the security challenges facing Mali and its fragile electoral apparatus.
“I guess so [the referendum is] it will happen, and the government will make sure it happens,” Villalon told Vox.
The junta promised stability, but violence has only accelerated in Mali
The leadership of Goïta In reality, it is the result of a second coup d’état that he carried out in May 2021, taking power from the transitional president and prime minister. Goita had previously taken power from Mali’s last elected civilian, President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita —commonly referred to as IBK—for accusations of corruption and worsening economic and security conditions.
Although the coup drew international outcry, thousands of Malians had protested IBK’s mishandling of the country’s crises and supported military forces as they took the capital Bamako. Islamist terrorist groups and armed separatist groups and insurgents since the collapse of Libya in 2011 have wreaked havoc in the Sahel region, particularly in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.
“[IBK’s] The government was not particularly effective in terms of security,” Eizenga told Vox. “The situation has gotten a lot worse, and it’s gotten worse faster since the junta came to power, and I think they have a lot of responsibility for that, especially the violence against civilians. But the situation also had a bad trend before he came to power.”
United Nations peacekeeping forces and French military forces have been in Mali since 2013, in an effort to help the government combat extremist forces. However, the junta effectively forced out French forces in 2022 and on Friday demanded that UN peacekeepers leave the country.”without delay”
Although the effectiveness of both forces in containing violence has been dubious at best, calls for their removal have more to do with the junta’s efforts to stir up populist, nationalist, and anti-colonial sentiment than not with the military’s own efforts to stabilize areas where insurgent groups have control.
In fact, under the current government, the security situation has deteriorated rapidly, Eizenga told Vox. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and the Center for Strategic Studies of Africa shared in an email, there were 996 violent events involving Islamist groups in 2022, resulting in 3,635 fatalities. As Eizenga told Vox, this makes the violence in 2022 “by far the worst on record.” Additionally, “based on available data through the first quarter of 2023, we predict roughly a doubling of violence since the junta took power.”
This is mainly due to the Moura massacre in the Mopti region, south-central Mali. As Vox’s Jen Kirby wrote in a March report on Wagner’s mercenary group:
In January, a group of independent United Nations experts called for an investigation into reported abuses in Mali, including a possible mass execution in Moura. Malian troops and Russian mercenaries, who are fighting an insurgency, were accused of killing hundreds of people last March. many of them probably civilians with no apparent ties to insurgent groups.
The board has defended its actions in Moura, denouncing a recent United Nations report about the event and claiming he was protecting civilians in the area from Islamist violence. But, Eizenga said by email, “part of the logic seems to be to alienate international forces such as those that form [the UN peacekeepping forces]to limit scrutiny of military operations, especially with Wagner’s support.”
The referendum is a difficult start for any possible democratic transition
Despite its failures to end Islamic extremism and the alleged atrocities it has committed, the junta has supporters, Villalon said. “They have support and they have a lot of ambivalence, maybe people who are not sure about them, but they are also very dissatisfied with the old guard, the old parties that ruled Mali for so long.”
Part of the opposition to the referendum comes from those political parties rooted in the “old guard”, especially the Parti Pour la Renaissance Nationale, or PARENA and Solidarité Africaine pour la Démocratie et l’Indépendance, or SADI, which were established in the nineties
“The excess of power in the hands of the future president will crush all other institutions,” said Sidi Touré, spokesperson for PARENA. he told Reuters on Friday. PARENA is encouraging Malians to vote “no” to the changes, but, Touré said, it is unclear what the outcome will be. “Mali and Malians are deeply divided.”
The referendum has sparked a serious debate about the role of religion in society and politics in the Muslim-majority country, particularly as a rejection of the French model of secularism. The imams are a major force in opposition to the draft constitution, which designates Mali as an “independent, sovereign, unitary, indivisible, democratic, secular and social republic.” Some of the more vocal opponents of the referendum they are I have Mahmoud Dickoone of the leaders of the opposition to IBK in 2020, and the Islamic League of Imams of Mali, an association of about 20 Muslim groups. Northern separatist groups, including the Permanent Strategic Framework for Peace, Security and Development (CSP-PSD), have also opposed the referendum, saying the changes are not inclusive enough.
While Villalon referred to Sunday’s vote as a “referendum on the regime,” Eizenga told Vox that “I think the hopes for an emboldened democracy in Mali are pretty low.”
The results of Sunday’s referendum are expected within 72 hours of the election, they said at the Agence France-Presse.
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