It was almost certainly not planned that way. But President Joe Biden and one of his main potential Republican rivals for re-election next year, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, will descend on Northern California on June 19.
The White House, which announced Tuesday that the president will visit an undisclosed location in the Bay Area, said nothing more about his planned trip to the Golden State until June 21, saying only that they will follow additional details.
But the presidential visit comes on the same day GOP supporters will host DeSantis for a $3,300 breakfast in Sacramento. That’s where DeSantis just made headlines by sending 36 Latino migrants from Texas to the California capital, where Democratic leaders have proclaimed the state a sanctuary for undocumented border crossers and now suggest Florida’s governor is a kidnapper .
“I would be surprised if either of them intentionally designed their trips to coincide with each other,” said Larry Gerston, professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University. “You don’t want to share the limelight. I would put it down to coincidence.”
With Democratic voters outnumbering Republicans two to one in the Golden State, Biden, who faces no major primary challenger, has little reason to fear losing the Electoral College vote bounty of California considered key to any Democratic presidential campaign.
For Republicans like DeSantis, now under Democratic Attorney General Rob Bonta’s investigation into migrant flights, it’s hostile territory.
But there are plenty of big wallets in California for candidates in both parties to tap into and top up their campaign coffers.
“You’re going to see candidates come out here again and again and again, and the biggest reason is that California is the big ATM,” Gerston said. “There is no other state where candidates can raise so much money.”
Biden has visited California twice this year before even formally announcing his re-election campaign in April. He arrived at Santa Cruz area in January see the coast affected by the storm as the state sought disaster relief and Monterey Park in Southern California in March to talk about curbing gun violence two months after a gunman opened fire on a dance studio, killing 11 people.
The president has been struggling to gain traction in national polls, his popularity hurt by record inflation, a shaky economic outlook and concerns about crime and the southern border.
But a Public Policy Institute of California poll last month found that 56 percent of likely California voters approved of Biden, including 79 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of independent voters. Biden’s approval rating in the state is highest in the Bay Area at 62%.
DeSantis, a primary target of criticism from California Gov. Gavin Newsom, saw his political star rise during the COVID-19 pandemic as he opposed the shutdowns and mandates pushed by Newsom and other Democrats. Florida had lower unemployment but higher death rates from the virus than California, although studies suggest differences in the age of the state’s general population and other factors played a role.
And Florida was one of the few bright spots for Republicans in the 2022 congressional midterm elections, where the GOP underperformed nationally, barely taking back the House and losing seats in the Senate .
DeSantis’ biggest obstacle to the White House is not Biden, but former President Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner. A Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies poll late last month found that Trump leads DeSantis among California Republican voters 44 percent to 26 percent, with other GOP contenders in the low single digits. Trump’s approval rating among California Republicans has risen from 38% in August, when DeSantis was at 27%.
This week, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Vice President Mike Pence joined a crowded GOP field that already included South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former South Carolina Gov. and Ambassador Trump at the UN Nikki Haley, who is scheduled to arrive in the Bay. Zone next week for a fundraiser hosted by venture capitalist Timothy Draper.
John J. Pitney Jr., who teaches politics at Claremont McKenna College, said Trump’s strong early lead in the polls could explain DeSantis’ migrant flight move as he tries to shake up the Republican primary.
“Right now, DeSantis only cares about Republican primary voters, and they like these maneuvers,” Pitney said. “It’s hard to think of anyone who lost a Republican presidential primary for being too tough on immigration. Even Republican voters in California will like it. They’ll cheer almost anything that looks like a slap in the face to Newsom. If Gov. state takes some action against DeSantis, Republicans will cheer even louder.”
But this move also carries risk down the road, as Latinos are a significant voting bloc. A new survey from the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California found that two-thirds of California adults believe immigrants are a boon to the Golden State because of their hard work and job skills. However, 74% of Republicans polled said they are a burden.
“As with abortion and other social issues,” Pitney said, “DeSantis is trying to win primary support at the expense of general election support.”
