MAGA sentiments posted in Anchorage, Alaska. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
Campaigns for the 2024 presidential election are in full swing, with several Republican powerhouses entering the race, including former President Donald Trump, former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
The crowded field of popular conservatives will be narrowed down to one candidate who will likely face off against President Biden, who has announced his re-election bid. The upcoming election follows a tumultuous presidential race in 2020, which was filled with misinformation about voter manipulation that fueled more mistrust between Republicans and Democrats.
A new study from the University of California, Berkeley, turns the spotlight on American voters and finds that simple bipartisan commitments to a true American democracy may offer a way to ease polarization and increase positive feelings for all. the sides
The research, published May 22 in the journal Nature Human Behaviour, found that both major parties believe in the democratic process and values. But dysfunction arises when voters on one side believe their opponents are hostile to those values. The study suggests that extremist political leaders can manipulate their followers into believing that opponents are undemocratic.
Then-President Donald Trump speaks to supporters on the Ellipse near the White House on January 6, 2021. (Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images)
“In both groups we found a very strong relationship. … The people most willing to break the rules of our democracy are also the very people most afraid of the other side [is] breaking the rules,” Gabe Lenz, a UC Berkeley professor who co-authored the study, told Yahoo News.
He said many factors have contributed to the current political turmoil in the United States.
“There’s a lot of research in political science that suggests rising inequality has contributed to it, and stagnant incomes among people without college degrees. But I think a factor consistent with our studies that’s underappreciated is that some politicians simply they excel at creating conflict and creating us in front of them and fostering misperceptions of the other side,” Lenz said.
The story continues
There are some examples in the United States of positive political speech, and the study highlights one from 2020:
A few weeks before the presidential election, Republican gubernatorial candidate Spencer Cox and Democratic challenger Chris Peterson appeared in a joint campaign ad. On screen together, they vowed to campaign civilly and respect the outcome of the November election. The ad went viral. Ultimately, Cox won the race.
Can’t we all get along?
Alia Braley, a professor at UC Berkeley, came up with the idea for the study and was a co-author. she he told the Berkeley News: “You can increase people’s willingness to adhere to democratic norms by reducing their fear of the other side.”
An organization was founded to do this. A non-profit organization called Braver angels organizes meetings and debates around the country, known as Tallers Roig/Blau, as a way to reduce political polarization.
At a debate in a conservative Texas town, eight Republicans and eight Democrats sat at a table and were tasked with giving a civil speech. They had to listen to each other’s side and find common ground. A a local journalist who witnesses it he believed it was a useful tool for discourse.
“We started right after the 2016 election,” Braver Angels marketing director Ciaran O’Connor told Yahoo News. “The goal was to see, if we can bring together people who voted for Trump and people who voted for Hillary, if we can bring them together in a constructive way where they can actually talk, rather than just talk about each other or about each other So, we have designed our first workshop based on the principles of family and couple therapy.”
Voter Confidence: The ‘Subversion Dilemma’
The study highlights a theory it called the “subversion dilemma”: people who want to live in a democracy may tolerate “the defection of their representatives to save democracy from their opponents.” Essentially, if citizens think that one side allows their representatives to act in undemocratic ways, then they might have incentives to let their leaders commit similar acts.
“All over the world, anti-democratic leaders are convincing their supporters to vote for their political rights,” the study states.
“While 78% of the world’s population say they want to live in a representative democracy, democracies continue to erode, with 70% of the population living in autocracies,” the study says. “Citizens in Venezuela, Turkey and Hungary strongly supported democracy as they voted for authoritarian leaders Chávez, Erdogan and Orbán, respectively.”
Trump greets supporters at an event in Grimes, Iowa, on June 1. (Scott Olson/Getty Images)
He also mentioned President Trump, who continues to spread falsehoods about Democrats rigging the election, a claim that has been roundly rejected. For example, in 2016, he he repeatedly said the election was rigged even before it happened.
Then, on January 6, 2021, a crowd of Trump supporters stormed the Capitol in an attempt to block Biden’s victory in the 2020 election. After the attack, dozens of Republican congressmen still voted against decertifying the results of the presidential race.
“This rhetoric likely contributed to the attack on Capitol Hill and the widespread belief among Republicans that the 2020 election was stolen,” the study added.
But the study also takes aim at Democrats, noting a tweet from progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in 2019, “Well, it’s official: Republicans are now arguing that the US is not (and should not be) a democracy. This is what they believe. From lobbyists writing their bills to sabotaging our civil rights, the GOP is working to destroy democracy,” and in 2020, Sen. Elizabeth Warren tweeted, “Health care. Reproductive freedom. Workers’ rights. The future of dreamers. Our planet. Democracy. Everything is at stake, so everything is on the table.”
The authors believe that rebuilding trust and a sense of shared goodwill is key to combating volatility.
Electoral disinformation and solution
“Most people on both sides believe that they are the ones protecting democracy. I think you have political leaders or cynical people manipulating people,” O’Connor said.
“But I think that most people believe in democracy, but they have been convinced through the media that it is the other side who wants to take away their rights or steal the elections,” he added. “Trump accused Democrats of rigging the election, even before he won 2016, and now persists in claiming Democrat Joe Biden won 2020 only because of fraud.”
President Biden at a cabinet meeting on Tuesday. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
One hypothesis derived from the study suggests that somehow reducing fears that the opposing side will violate democratic norms could lead voters to choose candidates who uphold those principles, not overthrow them. But this will not be easy.
“In the polling data, we see broad signs that Republicans want to protect democracy and that they are open to information that Democrats want to do the same. So Republicans may be open to that message and those signals, very more than many Democrats realize,” the study concluded.
