When he kicked off his presidential campaign in socially conservative Iowa, Gov. Ron DeSantis boasted about the six-week abortion ban he signed into law.
Just a couple of days later, while campaigning to “live free or die” in New Hampshire, DeSantis avoid talking about it the question.
If the early days of his presidential campaign are any indication, DeSantis must walk a hard line on abortion. Access to the procedure remains popular with most Americans, exposing DeSantis to some general election risk if he focuses too much on the issue. Polls show that more than 60% of Americans believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. according to the Pew Research Center.
Donors gathered for DeSantis’ May campaign launch in Miami expressed concern that DeSantis’ stance was too extreme for more moderate voters. according to audio obtained by Florida Politics.
But DeSantis should also point to her abortion record to distinguish herself from former President Donald Trump, who suggested the six-week law DeSantis signed was “too harsh.” A super PAC supporting DeSantis it hurt Trump — who is DeSantis’ main rival in the Republican presidential primaries — for this comment.
DeSantis is not new to straddling the anti-abortion parts of his base and acknowledging that strict limits on abortion access could provoke a public backlash. Floridians generally support access to legal abortions at a higher rate than neighboring states to the south. survey findings. When he signed the six-week ban, he did so in a private, late-night meeting in his office. And the next day, DeSantis made no mention of it during a speech at Liberty University, a private Baptist school in Virginia.
During his 2022 re-election campaign, DeSantis often focused on issues other than abortion, despite Democratic challenger Charlie Crist trying to bash him. DeSantis won that race handily.
Patrick Miller, a political science professor at the University of Kansas, said the 2022 overturn of Roe v. Wade, the landmark Supreme Court case that created a constitutional right to abortion, has fundamentally changed the political conversation.
For years before the case was overturned, Republicans could speak in broad language condemning abortion without having to deal with the reality of what limited access to abortion would look like, he said. Now, Miller said Republicans are struggling to figure out how to manage the anti-abortion movement they helped grow while trying not to lose the support of moderate voters.
“All of a sudden they can’t moderate abortion,” Miller said. “They can’t deny the pro-life movement now, that somehow the pro-life movement is an albatross around the neck of Republicans.”
Kelsey Pritchard, the state director of public affairs for Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, said that despite warnings that abortion could alienate voters, the real political liability is when Republicans back off from speaking out. of abortion and let the Democrats define the issue.
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“To win, Republicans must be clear about their position on protecting the unborn and contrast it with the extremism of the Democratic agenda for taxpayer-funded, non-consensual birth-to-birth abortion Pritchard said in an email.
The organization said it wants candidates who support a federal limit on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. So far, both DeSantis and Trump have refused to endorse it.
“We want to protect states’ rights to be able to make those judgments, particularly pro-life states,” DeSantis said when asked about a federal cap by a reporter in New Hampshire.
Other GOP candidates have also spoken out about abortion as they run for president. Former Vice President Mike Pence may have the most conservative views on abortion, saying he believes it should be banned in all states. US Senator Tim Scott said supports a 20-week federal banwhile former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley has said a The federal ban is “unrealistic.” North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who entered the presidential race this week, signed a bill in April allowing abortion. only in cases of rape or incest and only during the first six weeks of pregnancy.
It’s unclear how much abortion will influence voters in 2024 in the primary or general elections. But Democratic and pro-abortion groups are already using the issue against DeSantis and political observers have pointed to abortion as a possible factor in Democrats securing midterm victories in many parts of the country.
“Florida voters do not support his anti-abortion and anti-LGBTQ+ agenda, and DeSantis will soon learn that neither does the rest of the country,” Jenny Lawson, executive director of Planned Parenthood Votes, said in a statement when DeSantis announced his campaign. “Everyone will see him for the dangerous, out-of-touch, overzealous politician he is.”
During the 2022 election cycle, reliably red Kansas voters rejected a constitutional amendment that would have greatly limited access to abortion. Miller said counties that never vote for any Democrat, at any level, rejected that amendment.
But the same voters that cycle who rejected the amendment voted for candidates who were anti-abortion. Miller cautioned that it will take time to see how things play out on a broad national level.
Claire McKinney, a professor of government at the University of William & Mary, said that in previous state elections in the United States, groups would put anti-abortion referendums on the ballot in order to motivate more conservative voters to turn out. Polls showed that about two to three percent of the electorate was motivated to participate primarily because of abortion in these cases, McKinney said.
While there isn’t yet a great deal of information about how voter behavior has changed since Roe’s overturn, McKinney said the type of primary voter motivated to turn out primarily because of abortion has likely been invested in favor of someone who supports access to abortion.
McKinney said Democrats are likely to see abortion as a winning issue and will continue to press DeSantis and other Republicans on the issue.
“These days so many elections are decided by this very narrow margin,” McKinney said. “It doesn’t take much for people who are primarily motivated by access to abortion to swing the election.”
