CNN
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Even before former President Donald Trump was impeached this week for his alleged mishandling of classified documents, Bobbie Kilberg was in the “Never Trump” camp. And the veteran Republican fundraiser worries that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, given his public spat with Disney, one of his state’s biggest employers, could prove too “polarizing” to capture the White House in the end.
So Kilberg, who has spent decades raising money for GOP presidential candidates, has thrown his support behind former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a longtime friend who entered the 2024 race this week . Although he said he would reluctantly vote for DeSantis should he win the nomination, Kilberg believes Christie has a “clear lane” to distinguish himself as “someone who is willing to take on Donald Trump directly and forcefully.”
Kilberg said dozens of other fundraisers and donors had contacted her in recent weeks, eager to help Christie’s long-term campaign. And five more calls in the wake of Thursday’s federal indictment of Trump, he added, a sign of donor appetite for an alternative.
There are many candidates to choose from. Christie, a former Trump ally who has harshly criticized the former president for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, joined a field of candidates that expanded further this week. Two other contenders kicked off their campaigns Wednesday: former Vice President Mike Pence and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.
Trump, DeSantis, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and radio host Larry Elder have all previously announced their candidacies for the GOP nomination.
Trump’s critics in political fundraising circles fear that even with his looming legal troubles, the 2024 contest is shaping up to be a repeat of 2016, when the brash then-famous real estate developer seized the divisions of the GOP to break a path between 16 rivals, including Christie: to the nomination and then to the White House.
“An overly large Republican field is just handing Donald Trump the nomination on a silver platter,” said Chicago executive William Kunkler, an avowed Never Trumper and longtime GOP donor.
Some deep-pocketed groups, including one aligned with billionaire industrialist Charles Koch, have also pledged to elevate a Trump challenger, though it’s unclear at this point whether all outside organizations opposed to Trump are they will unite around a single candidate.
Asked for comment Thursday before news of the indictment, Trump spokesman Steven Cheung did not directly address the actions of groups opposed to the former president, but said Trump was “dominating poll after poll, both at the national as well as state, because voters want someone who can beat Joe Biden and take back the White House.”
Trump has denied any wrongdoing and has called the federal investigation and indictment “election interference.” His campaign, which saw a surge in donations after his March indictment in a separate New York case related to an alleged hush money scheme, also quickly sought to raise political donations from the latest news of the indictment .
A May CNN poll underscores the challenges facing Trump’s rivals. He was the first choice of 53% of Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the primary, even after his earlier impeachment. Trump’s support was about double the 26% who backed DeSantis as their first choice.
Further complicating the picture for his political opponents: The Republican National Committee’s recently announced fundraising and polling thresholds for participating in the first primary debate threaten to sideline new entrants to the race.
A concerted effort by outside groups to elevate a Trump challenger could help reshape the GOP field.
The Club for Growth, an anti-tax group that is one of the biggest independent spenders in Republican politics, has yet to endorse a candidate for 2024. But it has made no secret of its disdain for Trump, deliberately excluding the former president of a meeting of top donors earlier this year and running ads criticizing his position on Social Security.
Meanwhile, the influential Koch-aligned conservative network is pledging to support a single Republican it deems likely to win the general election, and to unleash its grassroots army on that person’s behalf. Doing so could jeopardize Trump’s path to the nomination.
Americans for Prosperity, the flagship group of the sprawling Koch-affiliated network, has begun telephone and in-person outreach to prospective and potential GOP voters in four early nominating states: Iowa, South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada. Goals include expanding the primary electorate and uncovering issues that will resonate with those voters.
“Any successful candidate will have to win the support of these Americans, and when we have a sense of who that candidate is, AFP Action will bring the full force of its grassroots efforts to rally voters behind that individual “, Emily Seidel. The CEO of Americans for Prosperity and senior adviser to AFP Action, the group’s political arm, said in a statement to CNN
The group has not set a public timetable for its endorsement, but hopes to enter the race before the first primaries and caucuses, according to an AFP official.
In the statement, Seidel said that early conversations with voters have shown that many, including those who say they support Trump, are “receptive to arguments that he is a weak candidate, his focus on 2020 is a liability and his lack of appeal to independent voters is a problem.”
“A lot of Republicans are ready to move on,” he added, “they just need to see another candidate step up and show they can lead and win.”
The AFP has not publicly announced a budget for its presidential campaign, but the group’s spending in past elections has at times rivaled that of the RNC.
Also, super PACs, which can accept unlimited sums from ultra-wealthy donors and corporations, could help individual candidates stand out from the crowd.
Robert Bigelow, a hotel magnate and wealthy space entrepreneur, contributed $10 million of the $30 million initially raised by Never Back Down, a super PAC supporting DeSantis’ presidential ambitions, a source familiar with the matter told CNN the donation He previously gave $10 million to DeSantis’ state political committee, which is expected to help fund Never Back Down.
Scott, the South Carolina senator, is polling in the single digits, well behind Trump and DeSantis. But he has had the support of billionaire Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison, who gave $30 million to a pro-Scott super PAC during the 2022 cycle.
Ellison, whose net worth Forbes puts at more than $130 billion, was on hand for Scott’s campaign kick-off last month in North Charleston, South Carolina, where the Republican praised him as “one of my mentors”.
Never Back Down and the pro-Scott super PAC Trust in the Mission have invested $10.8 million and about $5 million, respectively, in early advertising, according to a count of expenditures collected by AdImpact.
The pro-Trump super PAC – MAGA Inc. – has spent even more, topping $18.7 million.
On Friday, following news of Trump’s indictment, a pro-Christie super PAC released its first campaign ad. Tell It Like It Is PAC’s digital spot features Christie attacking Trump’s qualifications.
Some of the GOP’s biggest financiers have already publicly defected from Trump, including Blackstone CEO Stephen Schwarzman and cosmetics heir Ronald Lauder. Others are still weighing their options.
“Let the debates happen,” said John Catsimatidis, a New York billionaire who has supported Trump in the past and has a history of supporting both Republicans and Democrats in national politics. “Let the American people listen to all the candidates and make up their own minds.”
Political observers, including some major donors, warn that big dollars alone will not determine the outcome of the Republican primary.
Sarah Longwell, a Trump critic and editor of the website Bulwark who runs GOP discussion groups around the country, said establishment Republican donors shouldn’t underestimate how deeply GOP voters feel linked to Trump.
“They voted for him twice. They’ve defended him at Thanksgiving dinner tables,” he said of Trump supporters. “They’ve made their accommodations. They’ve made their rationalizations.”
“I think the people (running for president) who appeal to Republican donors are no longer the same people who appeal to Republican voters,” he added.
Art Pope, head of the North Carolina retailer and veteran Republican activist and donor who is closely aligned with the Koch network, said the politician who wins AFP Action’s endorsement “will benefit.”
But Pope, who supports Pence’s candidacy, said a big factor will be a candidate’s ability to attract the small-dollar donations needed to sustain a campaign.
“There are no smoke-filled rooms,” he told CNN. “It’s not like a bunch of donors can go into a closet and decide … who’s going to be the alternative to Donald Trump.”
The RNC’s decision to set fundraising and polling thresholds to qualify for the first GOP debate on Aug. 23 in Milwaukee is closing in on the field.
To get on stage, candidates must score at least 1% in several national polls recognized by the RNC, with some early state polls counting as well. Qualifying candidates will also need a minimum of 40,000 unique donors, a requirement that has already raised alarm bells among some candidates who are just establishing their candidacies.
Trump has built up a substantial base of small donors in his White House bids, but has indicated he may skip the first debates. DeSantis, who announced raising a record $8.2 million in the first 24 hours of his candidacy, has already reached the 40,000 RNC donor threshold, according to his campaign.
But others could be left out.
Hutchinson, the former Arkansas governor, formally announced his candidacy in late April and has argued that the RNC should have established only minimum criteria for early debate as new entrants build their infrastructure campaign
He has started running Facebook ads seeking donations as small as $3 “to help me get on the debate stage and move our nation forward.”
