Republican primary voters say they are far more worried The impeachment of Donald Trump has political motivations than his alleged conduct as a risk to national security, and there is no evidence that it has harmed his status as the clear favorite for the nomination 2024, at least not yet. It remains well ahead of rivals in both consideration and vote choice.
In fact, most voters in the Republican primaries generally would not consider keeping documents allegedly involving nuclear systems or military plans to be a national security risk, in and of itself.
The majority explicitly dismissed the charges announced in the indictment to change their views of Mr. Trump. Rather than being disqualifying in their eyes, even if he is ultimately convicted of a crime in the matter, they overwhelmingly believe he should still be able to serve as president again.
The interview for this poll was conducted both before and after the indictment was announced and made public, and there is no evidence that it hurt Trump’s standing in the primary contest. Respondents were contacted again after the DOJ’s announcement on Friday and asked additional follow-up questions about the matter.
At this stage of the race, it’s always important to consider what the electorate wants even more than any horse race. And on that front, despite campaign rhetoric, Republican voters are prioritizing the economy over the so-called culture war issues.
They place far more importance on a candidate who has a plan to reduce inflation and cut taxes than they do on issues discussed along the way, such as limiting transgender rights and a national ban on ‘abortion (compared to the chart below). ).
But that doesn’t mean Trump (or perhaps those who flock to his defense) aren’t in perfect sync with the electorate either, and perhaps that could be an opening for an opponent down the line.
Most Republican primary voters don’t want to hear Trump himself talk about the legal cases and investigations against him, or what happened in the 2020 election, even though those issues have been a key part of his rallies, even in the wake of the accusation. They preferred him to talk about the present or the future: his plans for the country now.
And if the nominee were someone other than Trump, they would prefer that person not talk about Trump at all, rather than showing loyalty to him.
But here’s the needle for other Republican candidates to thread: In another sign of Trump’s influence on the party, even if he wasn’t the nominee, Republican voters overwhelmingly say they’d like a candidate like he
Approach to the government
But that said, if Trump is only talking to the most loyal “MAGA” Republicans, there are indeed differences between them and the rest of the party in what kind of approach they say a GOP president should take.
Relative to other Republicans, MAGA Republicans are somewhat more likely to express a more combative approach. While a majority would prefer a president who finds common ground with Democrats, a third would prefer to investigate and punish the opposition party, which is higher than non-MAGA IDs.
And they are less likely to say it is important for the Republican candidate to appeal to moderate and independent voters in the election, preferring instead one who motivates the Republican base.
The GOP Race: Consideration and Voting
Trump leads nearly three to one in the vote preference over Ron DeSantis, his next closest competitor, whose official entry into the race has not changed his position on Trump. The rest of the field is currently seeing support rates in the single digits.
Trump is being considered by at least three-quarters of the primary electorate; this is always a critical measure at this early stage of a race, where voters know they have time to weigh the merits of various candidates, so far removed from the actual vote.
Respondents here were free to consider as many or as few as they wanted, and most Republican voters are still considering more than one candidate.
And when we take an overall view of the field, taking into account both consideration and the current vote, we see that Trump dominates when the two measures are taken together, suggesting that he has an even higher ceiling, and that Ron DeSantis and other candidates they still have more. people consider them to vote for them, leaving open the question of whether they can convert more. So far, they haven’t.
Trump leads regardless of what qualities Republican voters want most in a president, including voters who want a president to be decisive and energetic, but also among those who say it’s important for a president to tell Americans the truth, have character and even be. a role model for children.
He’s the choice, regardless of what they think is important for a GOP candidate to do, on all tested items.
It’s another example that today people – and especially partisans – see things like truth and character very differently, including whether they believe someone in politics has it. Through so many of our polls over the years, Republicans have seen Trump as someone who is fighting for them and saying it as if he were in a politicized system.
Views of Joe Biden
Moving on to the man the Republicans want to take on…Joe Biden remains at 41% approval. Democrats like the debt ceiling deal, but Republicans less so, especially MAGA Republicans, and many Americans haven’t heard enough about it.
Amid concerns about his age heading into the upcoming campaign, which voters, including Democrats, have expressed recent surveys, we asked if Biden should run for a second term. Four in ten Democrats say it shouldn’t. When asked why, they mostly cited concerns about whether he could complete a second term, rather than his performance in the first.
So we asked ourselves in general whether the demands of the presidency are too great for people over 75. And about half of Americans think so, while nearly four in ten say it depends.
Looking at the presidential qualities that correlate with Biden’s own approval rating, he does better with those who prioritize characteristics like experience and empathy and much less with those who look for elements like energy.
This CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted with a nationally representative sample of 2,480 adult US residents interviewed between June 7 and 10, 2023. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race and education according to the US Census’ American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past voting. The margin of error is ±2.7 points for the overall sample and ±5.5 points for likely Republican primary voters.
The total sample also includes 1,798 respondents recontacted between June 9 and 10, 2023, after a federal indictment against Donald Trump was unsealed. For this nationally representative sample, recontact weighting was applied for age, gender, race, education, 2020 vote, party identification, and primary 2024 intent. The margin of error is ±3.3 points for the recontacted sample.
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