In what was surely a case of unintended consequences, the Supreme Court’s landmark decision a year ago that overturned Roe v. Wade is putting abortion opponents increasingly out of step with public opinion and creating political dangers for candidates on his side.
In a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll, one in four Americans say subsequent state efforts to impose strict limits on abortion access have made them more supportive of abortion rights.
The Dobbs decision, which removed access to abortion as a constitutionally protected right, galvanized the anti-abortion movement, but its fallout is helping to boost support for legal abortion to record highs and reshape the debate on what has long been the country’s deepest political problem. nation
“I don’t think it should have been overturned,” Tanya Goodpasture, 53, of Independence, Mo., said in a follow-up interview after being polled. A Republican who voted for Donald Trump in 2020, she expressed concern about abortion, especially after a fetus’s heartbeat could be detected. But he added: “We are here to make our own decisions and deal with the repercussions.”
By nearly 4-1, 23%-6%, those who have changed their views on abortion in the past year said they have become more supportive of legal abortion, not less. This includes more women than men, more Democrats than Republicans, and more younger than older voters. The change was pronounced among black respondents. Almost a third, 32%, said they had become more supportive of abortion access in the past year.
And independent women, one of the most critical swing groups in the election, 28% to 5% said they had become more supportive of abortion rights.
The national poll of 1,000 registered voters, conducted by landline and cellphone June 5-9, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
By a nearly 2-1 margin, 58%-30%, respondents opposed the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Where the abortion issue stands in the 2024 election
Americans ranked other issues as more important in determining their vote in next year’s election. First came inflation, followed by immigration, threats to democracy and gun control. Abortion tied to education as the fifth.
That said, more than three in four said abortion would be an important issue for them; 20% said it would be the most important issue.
This includes those on both sides.
“The first thing the federal government should do is protect life,” said Sarah Foust, 37, a preschool teacher in Myrtle Beach, SC, a Republican who supports banning all abortions. “This is with the military and this is also for the most vulnerable, which are the children in the womb, which are children.”
But Jamie Nassehi, 63, a builder and Democrat from Silver Spring, Md., said abortion access has become a more important issue for him in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling. “States are criminalizing something that was precedent for 50 years,” he said. In a reference to the religious right and the high court’s more conservative majority, he said: “If they continue, this country will be unrecognizable because they are forcing their views on everyone and they are a minority, really.”
Americans overwhelmingly oppose the next goal of many anti-abortion activists, to enact a federal law banning abortion nationwide. Between 80% and 14% of respondents opposed the idea, including 65% of Republicans and 83% of independents.
Between 53% and 39% supported a federal law guaranteeing access to abortion.
“When 80 percent of Democrats and 53 percent of independents want Congress to pass a law guaranteeing access to abortion nationwide, here’s the picture,” said David Paleologos, director of the Center for Suffolk University Policy Research. “Among women in the important independent voting demographic, 63 percent support a national law. Even 23 percent of Republican men and women support it.”
Since the June 2022 Dobbs decision, abortion has been unavailable in 14 states and courts have blocked bans in several others, according to the Guttmacher Institute, which tracks reproductive issues. State legislatures passed some new bans, and pre-Roe laws have been reinstated in other states.
Georgia is now enforcing a six-week pregnancy ban, Nebraska at 12 weeks, and Arizona and Florida at 15 weeks. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has signed a six-week ban, contingent on a pending state court decision. North Carolina has approved a 12-week ban, which will take effect on July 1.
Where to draw the line?
USA TODAY/Suffolk’s findings were consistent with other survey research. The Gallup poll reports that support for legal abortion surged in reaction to the Dobbs decision and has remained at record highs. Last month, 69 percent said abortion should generally be legal in the first three months of pregnancy, the highest level since Gallup first asked the question in 1975.
Views on abortion rights are complicated. In the poll, 26% said abortion should be legal in all cases; 8% said it should be illegal in all cases. Most fell somewhere in between, supporting not only abortion access but also some restrictions.
Overall, a 53% majority said abortion should be legal in most or all cases; 28% said it should be illegal in most or all cases.
Where should this line be drawn?
Eighteen percent admit a restriction at six weeks of pregnancy; 17% at 15 weeks and 9% at 22 weeks. Eleven percent say abortion should be restricted to the point where the fetus is viable; 26% oppose all limits.
Rebecca Romano, 35, who works at a retirement community in Mesa, Arizona, said support for legal abortion would be a “very, very big factor” in her vote. Independent, he voted for a third candidate in the last presidential election.
“I think for women’s health and well-being, it’s a big deal,” she said. “I feel like we literally just went backwards.” He would like the Supreme Court to reverse course and recognize access to abortion as a constitutional right. “I feel that Roe vs. Wade needs to be reversed,” he said.
What is Dobbs’ decision?:The Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, eliminating the constitutional right to abortion
