With two criminal indictments and several more possible, Donald Trump carries more legal baggage than any presidential candidate in history.
In the past, a candidate with such legal problems would be ineligible. But Trump has helped reshape political norms and the way Americans view institutions, including the criminal justice system and the media.
Even Americans who dislike Trump have been affected by his drama. And the few who have not made up their minds about him are tired of everything. Although cable news audiences, especially MSNBC, was up during the week of the coverage of Trump’s impeachment, the news accounts seemed like an afterthought, as many Americans have been numbed by Trump’s antics.
Related: Cruz, Abbott denounce Trump impeachment over mishandling of classified documents
Political points
Still, scandal-plagued Trump is thriving, politically. Polls show the former president has an average lead of 31 percent over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his closest challenger in the GOP presidential primary. Real Clear Politics polling average puts Trump at 52% in the crowded GOP presidential field.
In the days following a federal indictment over his handling of classified documents, Trump says yes brought in $6.6 million in campaign donations.
A rematch between Trump and Biden in the 2024 presidential election looks more likely today than it did in the months after the 2020 presidential election, when Trump embraced baseless accusations that stole the 2020 election from him.
Former President Donald Trump speaks at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, NJ on June 13, 2023. (Andrew Harnik / ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Everything suggests that the nation is in an era where many voters don’t care about scandal or allegations of public corruption against elected officials or candidates for public office. They give their preferred candidates the benefit of the doubt, if not blind loyalty.
Texas Republican political consultant Matthew Langston, who has had previous interactions with Trump’s political team, said the former president’s personality, political message and defiance give him the ability to handle what would be “issues killers” for other candidates.
“They see it as a deep state assault on Donald Trump,” he said. “That’s a phrase he’s built since the beginning of his presidency, and it’s given him the ability to deflect what would normally be strong negatives against virtually any other candidate.”
Langston said Republicans, even those who don’t like Trump, are against legal action against him. Most of his rivals in the presidential contest, while criticizing Trump’s fitness to be president again, have raised questions about the allegations against him.
“Republicans see this as an assault from the opposite party to destroy their presidential campaign, whether you’re a Trump fan or not,” he said.
Trump has been impeached twice. Along with the investigation of classified documents, he has been indicted by a Manhattan grand jury Criminal charges related to hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels. The former president is preparing for charges that could come from one investigation into electoral manipulation in Georgia. He is also an important figure in a special counsel investigation into the January 6 attack on the Capitol and attempts to overturn the 2020 election.
It is possible that the weight of these legal problems will, at some point, bring Trump down. But it seems more likely that he will continue to have the support of a loyal base. And that gives him an edge in a crowded primary field.
Trump is not the first national or local candidate to be embraced by loyal voters amid legal troubles.
In 2014, before the Trump era began, Republican Ken Paxton was elected attorney general, despite the stench of a securities fraud investigation. He was indicted on related charges in 2015 and re-elected twice as the case stalled in court.
Last month, the Texas House voted to impeach Paxton over bribery allegations related to Austin real estate developer Nate Paul, who earlier this month was arrested by the FBI on felony charges “undetermined”. The state Senate will hold his trial, with Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick as judge.
Paxton, who is not as popular as Trump, enjoys the support of conservative voters in Texas, and his legal troubles did not cripple his political campaigns. Without the possibility of being removed from office, he would be in line for higher political office. He was once mentioned as a future gubernatorial candidate.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks in his office in Austin on May 26, 2023. Paxton’s trial on 2015 securities fraud charges will take place in Houston, a court in appeals on June 14.(Eric Gay / ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Many conservative voters and activists have rallied on behalf of Paxton, which could put Republican lawmakers who speak out against him in a political bind. The 2024 election will provide an opportunity for voter payback.
Texas senators are in a position to do what voters won’t: remove Paxton from office. This doesn’t sit well with his fans, but it’s part of the system.
“The electorate seems to support Paxton,” Langston said. “Knowing that, it’s going to be incredibly challenging for senators to remove an elected office.”
Trump’s entanglements with the law are entering uncharted territory. He could face a series of trials in the heat of the 2024 election.
The primary and general elections provide the former president with a unique opportunity. Not only can he claim the White House, but winning would mean he would be in a position to drop the investigation into classified documents and excuse himself from any pending legal action.
Never before has an election had such high stakes.
If the legal action against Trump does not come before the election and he loses, it would mean that he will be a defendant without the power of the presidency.
At this point, it won’t matter how his supporters feel about the process or what the latest political polls reflect.
He will be innocent or guilty in a court of law.
