Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) saw a boost to his political brand Tuesday night after his slate of endorsed candidates in state legislative races won their primaries.
Youngkin participated in the GOP contests last month, endorsing 10 candidates, all of whom won against their primary rivals.
The results are a boon for the incumbent governor ahead of what is expected to be a hotly contested cycle in November. They also bolster his image as a rising star within the ranks of the GOP.
In a memo released Wednesday, Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC Chairman Dave Rexrode argued that Youngkin has an “unprecedented opportunity” to affect the November races given the commonwealth’s new district lines, along with other factors.
“The fact is, an open-seat environment, with a well-liked governor working directly in these races while advancing a grassroots agenda that moves Virginia forward, is cause for optimism as we seek to hold onto the House majority and flip- lo. the Senate,” Rexrode wrote. “It’s still an uphill climb, but the strength of Governor Youngkin’s image, job approval and support for his common-sense agenda are critical to a successful November.”
The governor’s team pointed to contested primary races last night, including in Senate District 27, where Republican Del. Tara Durant, who was supported by Youngkin, defeated Matt Strickland. by about 14 points.
“It’s always a risk to get involved in an intramural contest, but it was a calculated risk because I think the governor’s team knows that if you want to win the state Senate this fall, which is no easy task, then you have to go in and try find the candidates who would be most successful in that effort,” said Tucker Martin, a Virginia-based GOP strategist.
Youngkin presented his endorsements along with a six-figure ad buy made last month before the primaries to flex his political muscles.
“He’s willing to stick his neck out, put his political capital on the line to get good Republican lawmakers to work,” said Will Ritter, CEO of Poolhouse, an agency that does media for Youngkin’s PAC. “What happened last night shows that he has a sophisticated political operation that sets a goal and achieves it.”
Republicans have touted the party unity that will come out on Tuesday while painting Democrats as a party struggling with infighting.
“The governor. Youngkin deserves credit for being a unifying force and being a push,” said Mike Joyce, director of communications for the Republican State Leadership Committee. “Having the unified force that we have in November really speaks to the work he’s done Governor Youngkin.”
But others argue that Youngkin and his allies are overstating the governor’s role Tuesday.
“Their candidates won, but they were in the Republican primary,” said Bob Holsworth, a veteran Virginia political analyst. “It doesn’t mean anything for the fall.”
“It’s important that Tara Durant wins over Matt Strickland because this seat is one that Republicans absolutely must hold if they have any chance of flipping the Senate,” Holsworth added.
“But that won’t win the Senate for him.”
Holsworth noted that starting in November, Democrats start with roughly 20 seats that are “relatively safe,” meaning Youngkin and Republicans will be tasked with winning every competitive race and will likely have to flip a seat.
“It’s not predetermined that he’s likely to be successful in changing the Senate,” Holsworth said. “This is an uphill climb for him in Virginia.”
And Republicans say they are keenly aware of what will be a steep climb to retake the state Senate, where the Democratic majority has been a bulwark against much of Youngkin’s agenda.
“It’s going to be tough,” Ritter said. “If we can go back to the machine on the way back, Virginia was completely eliminated as a blue state. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in Virginia by 10 points,” he continued, referring to the 2020 election, which take place a year before Youngkin was elected.
Democrats argue that Youngkin’s narrative coming out of Tuesday’s primary is designed to push their national narrative for the 2024 presidential race. Youngkin has not formally closed the door on a possible run, but his team has maintained which is focused on the Legislature races in Virginia this fall. Youngkin said last month that he would not go out on the presidential campaign trail this year.
While a stellar showing for Virginia Republicans in November could theoretically bode well for Youngkin in a presidential primary, it would be a mammoth logistical task for him to drum up enough support before the early Iowa caucuses. of 2024.
Still, November’s state legislative election will be in part a referendum on Youngkin’s first two years in office. Also, the stakes are raised for him because he can only serve one consecutive term as governor in Virginia, meaning what happens under him could have a profound impact on his political legacy.
“I think this fall will be characterized by so many competing forces that it’s hard to say what the No. 1 issue or dynamic will be,” Martin said.
“Yes, there is a part that will be, ‘How do you feel about the governor’s leadership?’ There will also be a part of it that will be, ‘How do you feel about how the president is doing?’ There’s also the Trump effect,” Martin added. “Abortion is going to be a big issue. Education is going to be a big issue. And who knows what else will happen between now and November?”
Politicians agree that the November election in Virginia will be a test for both parties ahead of next year’s general election.
Democrats have already indicated they plan to make abortion a key issue in Virginia, while Republicans are already painting Democrats as too progressive or extreme on multiple fronts.
“This will be like the first election of 2024 in some ways where the parties will test their messages,” Holsworth said.
