washington dc – Be careful what you wish for, goes the old adage.
A year after US conservatives fulfilled their decades-long goal of overturning the constitutional right to abortion, Republican politicians are facing setbacks on the issue.
Abortion bans and restrictions are unpopular with Americans, and those who defend them are paying electorally.
Public opinion polls and numerous election contests, even in Republican strongholds, have suggested over the past year that most American voters want to protect due process.
Even former President Donald Trump, who prides himself on appointing three justices to the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v Wade, has privately acknowledged that Republicans are “killing on abortion,” according to the North – Americans reports.
Tresa Undem, co-founder of the nonpartisan research firm PerryUndem, said the abortion issue has been an “Achilles heel” for Republicans since the Supreme Court decision.
“It’s a challenging issue for Republicans right now and in the next national election,” Undem told Al Jazeera. She added that pro-abortion voters are not only prioritizing abortion rights on the ballot, but are also linking the issue to other issues, including broader women’s rights and threats to democracy.
The Dobbs decision
In Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization last June, the Supreme Court overturned Roe, the 1973 precedent that established a constitutional right to abortion through the privacy protections of the 14th Amendment.
With Dobbs replacing Roe, abortion was no longer protected by the federal government. After the ruling, Republican-controlled states rushed to enact abortion bans and severe restrictions, with some making no exceptions for rape and incest.
These laws, which critics say violate women’s bodily autonomy and endanger their lives, face legal challenges and several have been blocked by the courts.
They are also unpopular. There is a growing body of evidence showing that most Americans do not want the government to restrict their reproductive rights.
In an NPR/CBS poll released this week, 57 percent of respondents said they opposed overturning Roe. A Gallup poll in May showed that 52 percent of Americans identify as “pro-choice,” in favor of abortion rights, compared to 44 percent as “pro-life.” Additionally, 69 percent want abortion to be legal during the first trimester of pregnancy.
Abortion has been a contentious issue in American politics for decades. Conservatives, often motivated by religious beliefs, have pushed for a ban on the procedure, arguing that abortion is tantamount to ending human life.
Kansas, which has voted for Republican presidential candidates since 1968, offered an early indication of the changing political landscape under Dobbs’ decision. In August 2022, its voters delivered a blow to the conservatives, handily defeating a referendum to repeal the right to abortion in the state constitution.
“This vote makes clear what we know: A majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion and should have the right to make their own health decisions,” said the President Joe Biden at the time.
Democrats “benefited” from Dobbs
In November’s midterm elections, voters in five more states favored protecting abortion rights through ballot measures, including in Kentucky, a Republican stronghold.
Michigan, a swing state that voted for Trump in 2016, also passed a referendum enshrining abortion rights. Democrats, emphasizing abortion rights, comfortably won all three statewide races in Michigan last year and won control of the legislature for the first time in years.
And it wasn’t just in Michigan. In key midterm races, Democrats who made abortion a key issue emerged victorious, leading the party to a historically strong performance across the country, despite rampant inflation and economic worries.
Undem said the Dobbs ruling definitely boosted Democrats’ prospects at the polls in 2022.
“There’s no doubt it was a setback [for Republicans]. I mean every indicator, every ballot measure where people voted on it, every poll before and after the election, including ours, showed that Democrats actually benefited from the Dobbs decision and that abortion was one of the main problems,” he said.
Demonstrators at the “Rally for Our Rights” protest ahead of the 2023 Wisconsin Supreme Court election outside the Wisconsin State Capitol in Madison on April 2 [File: Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters]
And it wasn’t just a one-time event, according to Undem. Reproductive rights have continued to resonate with voters and will play an important role in the 2024 election, he said, citing his firm’s exit polls.
Earlier this year, for example, in Wisconsin, a liberal candidate defeated a conservative challenger for a seat on the state supreme court in a closely watched race largely seen as a referendum on rights to the abortion
So far, there are no signs that Democrats are abandoning the issue.
“Let’s be clear: The vast and overwhelming majority of Americans stand with women and support the right to choose abortion,” Democratic Sen. Patty Murray said in a floor speech this week.
“Every place pro-abortion rights were on the ballot last November, every place, pro-abortion rights won. Yet Republicans ignore their constituents and scale back their extreme anti-abortion policies. ‘abortion’.
Towards 2024
Popularity aside, Glenn Altschuler, a professor of American studies at Cornell University, pointed to a newly found discrepancy in political energy between supporters and opponents of abortion rights.
He said, when Roe v Wade was the law of the land, it was easier to rally people against it than for it. Those who seek change are often more enthusiastic than those who want to preserve the status quo.
“And so this has been a winning issue for Republicans for that reason for many decades,” Altschuler said.
Now the situation is reversed, with energy on the side of the people pushing for abortion rights. “When you’re fighting to restore something that’s been taken away from you, that’s a mobilizing issue,” the professor said.
That energy could be of utmost importance in the 2024 presidential election. With Biden and Trump, two candidates with relatively low approval ratings, expected to be their respective parties’ nominees, voter turnout could be crucial, Altschuler explained.
“Democrats will have to rely on two issues to turn out voters. One is the threat to democracy, especially if Donald Trump is the nominee of the Republican Party, and the other is abortion,” he said.
When Roe v. was overruled. Wade, we pledged to never stop fighting for your reproductive rights.
That hasn’t changed.
Today, I signed a third reproductive health care executive order that strengthens access to contraception, an essential part of reproductive care. pic.twitter.com/66jVxlTzUz
— President Biden (@POTUS) June 23, 2023
Some Republicans seem aware of the political risks of the abortion debate. For example, Trump, the party’s front-runner for the presidency, has been tight-lipped about whether he would support a national abortion ban.
And recently he suggested the six-week ban signed by his Republican challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is “too harsh.”
But other primary candidates are starting to call him out on the issue, and Altschuler said the former president can’t keep dodging questions about a federal ban in the general election.
“Ironically, the issue of abortion is being kept alive and kicking by Republicans,” Altschuler said.
“By passing legislation that bans abortion after six weeks, by having a judge in Texas seek to get rid of abortion drugs in the United States, the issue is brought home even to Americans from blue states that feel a threat to abortion based on all these actions.”
