The head-spinning, stomach-churning legislative session of 2023 is over. But hold on to the Dramamine and the antacids — the 2024 election is happening. So are activist groups seeking to shift votes left, right or sideways.
MONEY MONSOON: In federal races — US president, US Senate and US House — candidates, party committees and other political action committees raised $832 million in the first five months of 2023. Candidates for Congress and Legislature have announced it, although the Oregon Secretary of State will not begin taking declarations of candidacy until September 14.
FOCUS ON THE FIFTH: The 2022 election featured three open congressional seats on the general election ballot, leading to the election of two Democrats: U.S. Rep. Val Hoyle, D-Springfield, and U.S. Rep. Andrea Salinas, Democrat of Tigard. U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer, R-Happy Valley, gave Republicans a second seat in the Oregon delegation and helped put the GOP in the U.S. House majority.
For 2024, Hoyle is the only Federal Election Commission candidate in the 4th District. In District 6, Salinas is the lone Democrat and David Russ of Dundee has filed as a Republican challenger.
The biggest draw for Congress on next year’s ballot is shaping up in the 5th District that runs from Portland to Bend. Chavez-DeRemer is running for re-election, and FEC reports show Rep. Janelle Bynum, D-Clackamas and Metro Chairwoman Lynn Peterson all filing to run. Kevin Easton of Salem is campaigning to become the first openly gay man to represent Oregon in Congress. Still on the sidelines is Terrebonne attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who narrowly lost to Chavez-DeRemer in 2022.
McLeod-Skinner confirmed Tuesday that she had commissioned a poll, first reported by the Oregon Capital Chronicle, that showed she had a strong chance of winning the Fifth District primary if she ran again. Reached Tuesday, McLeod-Skinner said she would spend time with family out of state over the July 4 holiday and will decide on the race “early next month.” Which is right now.
PARITY COMES TO OREGON: Run Vote Lead, a New York-based national organization that monitors and promotes equality in the gender makeup of state legislatures, issued a report showing Oregon among the leaders in gender parity as lawmakers, at least in a room According to the results of the 2022 election, women hold 48% of the seats in the Oregon House, a good showing for a state where women make up 50.4% of the population. The Oregon Senate is further behind, with women making up 31% of senators. In 2022, Colorado joined Nevada in having “gender parity” in its legislature.
Jenifer Howard, spokeswoman for Run Vote Lead, noted that western states had led the way in breaking down the gender barrier.
“Wyoming was the first US territory to grant women the right to vote in 1869, and Colorado became the first state to elect women to its legislative body in 1894,” he said. “Colorado became the first state to elect women to its parliamentary body in 1894. In fact, the Colorado legislature was the first parliamentary body to elect women in the world.
Howard said western states continue to be much more likely to have equal gender representation, regardless of political party.
“Arizona recently achieved 51.7 percent of state senators now women, and other western states like New Mexico, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii are moving closer to equal representation in their state houses,” Howard said.
NOW BOTH SIDES – MAJORITY AND MINORITY: Imagining yourself in someone else’s shoes is one thing. Having been there is another. Among Oregon state legislators, few remain from the days when Republicans were the majority and Democrats were the minority.
Republicans have not won an outright majority in the Oregon Senate since the 2000 election. They won an even 15-15 split in 2002 before Democrats regained the majority in 2004 and have held it ever since.
In the House, Republicans last held a majority after the 2002 election. After ceding control to Democrats in 2004, they returned in 2010 with an even 30-30 split before slipping back in 2012, where s ‘have remained ever since.
Leaving aside partial sessions, the number of current legislators who have been in the majority and in the minority at some point in their careers is small.
In the House of 60 deputies, only one Republican has gone through the seesaw of political control. Rep. Greg Smith, R-Heppner, came to the House in 2001. He served in the majority for six years, then in the minority for four, a divided chamber for two, then in the minority for 11 years.
Among Democrats, there are some who remember being the underdog: Rep. Paul Holvey, D-Eugene, has been a member of the House since 2004, serving the Democratic minority in its early days.
Sen. Floyd Prozanski, D-Eugene, was elected in 1994 and served until 2003 with a brief gap, always in the Democratic minority. He was appointed to the Senate in 2003, when the chamber was split 15-15 between the parties, then has held the Democratic majority since the 2004 election.
There are Oregon political versions of military “recruits” from different eras, such as soldiers who served in separate wars.
Current House Minority Leader Tim Knopp, R-Bend, was elected to the House in 1998, serving in the Republican majority and rising to majority leader in 2002-2003. Knopp did not run in 2004 and would not return to legislative politics until 2012, when he won a primary challenge against Sen. Chris Telfer, R-Bend. He has been in the minority during his Senate career.
Rep. Kevin Mannix, R-Salem, is a saga of his own. Elected to the House in 1988 as a Democrat, he served one term in the then-Democratic majority. Republicans took control of the 1990 House elections and Mannix was in the minority.
Mannix lost the 1996 Democratic primary for attorney general to former House Speaker Hardy Myers, D-Portland, after which Mannix became a Republican and was appointed to the GOP-controlled Senate in 1997.
Mannix ran as a Republican for the House in 1998 and won one term with the Republican majority. He left the Legislature in 2000 for a run for attorney general as a Republican, losing a close race to the incumbent, Myers.
Mannix was the GOP candidate for governor in 2002, losing to Democrat Ted Kulongoski. He chaired the Oregon Republican Party from 2003 to 2005, losing the 2006 GOP primary for governor and a 2008 primary for Congress.
Throughout his career, Mannix had defended electoral measures and they remained in his concentration area until 2022, when he won the elections to the House after an absence of two decades. He is part of the Republican minority.
