CNN
—
As America celebrated its independence, even as it was divided over the true nature of its values, it was also preparing for a toxic presidential campaign that could deepen its political trauma and push the electoral system back to its limits.
Donald Trump, for example, put on a show of strength over the Fourth of July weekend, highlighting his first dominance of the Republican presidential race and the tough task his rivals face in trying to thwart his bid to win his party’s nomination for the third time in a row.
The former commander in chief drew a massive crowd at a rally in the key state of South Carolina on Saturday, which resonated with his false claims about election interference and his impeachment for allegedly mishandling classified documents after to leave office. But Pickens’ raucous event also showed the enduring power of his personality and wild political appeal to voters in the Republican base. And, along with his lead in the primary polls, it should be a warning to Democrats that the most disruptive president in modern history has a realistic chance of a White House repeat that would likely be even more tumultuous than his first. mandate
“We will rescue freedom, liberty and justice and carry forward the spirit of the Fourth of July, 1776,” Trump said, writing a message that delighted supporters but thanked those reeling from his assault on democracy afterward of his defeat in 2020.
Even a high-profile supporter of Trump’s strongest primary challenger described Trump as the “main runaway.” Steve Cortes, the spokesman for a pro-DeSantis super PAC, admitted the Florida governor was “way behind” in a harsh assessment of a campaign that has yet to show DeSantis has national appeal.
Trump’s opponents marched through Independence Day parades on Tuesday, in a legendary presidential campaign rite of passage as they seek a foothold in a race in which no alternative candidate has yet caught fire or managed to capitalize on any anti- -Trump. Former Vice President Mike Pence, for example, was in Iowa, the nation’s first caucus state that will likely be critical to his long-term campaign as he tries to energize evangelical voters. And DeSantis was in New Hampshire.
But in the latest CNN poll, conducted after Trump’s federal indictment, 47 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning registered voters still said the former president is their first choice for the nomination, with a support for DeSantis at 26%. And one NBC News poll At the end of last month, Trump had a nearly 30-point lead over DeSantis with all other contenders in the single digits. The former president’s team released a memo over the weekend touting other polls showing his comfortable lead as he sought to build a sense of unstoppable momentum.
He voted for Obama, Clinton and Biden. Hear why he supports DeSantis
More than six months before early voters in the Republican primary cast their ballots, it’s too early to predict how the race will turn out. Unexpected events and the weight of Trump’s criminal trials could begin to have an effect, and it would be unusual if at least one of his rivals did not experience a surge in popularity.
But the race’s high summer momentum suggests Trump is by far the GOP’s front-runner ahead of a crucial fundraising period between the Fourth of July and Labor Day holidays. the first GOP debate and which hopefuls must use to define themselves ahead of the sprint to the first nominating contests of the winter.
Whoever wins the Republican nomination, it’s clear that the party will present Americans with potentially the most far-right conservative agenda of any major party in decades. Trump is increasingly using demagogic rhetoric, and other candidates have followed suit by promising to eliminate the FBI and Justice Department and gut the federal government’s professional bureaucracy. Some advocate stronger restrictions against abortion, though Trump seems aware of the potential pitfalls of such a strategy in a general election.
Overall, though, the GOP is an emerging platform that may not only threaten the traditional democratic checks and balances on presidential power, but would also set the country on a path to the right while the conservative majority on the Supreme Court is dismantling decades of of precedents on issues such as reproductive rights and race.
As early as it is, some of the big questions that will decide the 2024 GOP primaries are beginning to be answered.
— Neither candidate has yet demonstrated the ability to consolidate opposition to the former president in a crowded field or to weed out enough of his “Make America Great Again” devotees to weaken his hold. And there are no signs so far that a critical mass of his supporters, while still adoring their champion, are willing to move on to another, younger candidate.
At Trump’s rally in South Carolina, home state Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has spent years bashing Trump while at times criticizing his wild behavior, was heavily booed. The drama showed how even minor deviations from Trump’s cult of personality in the GOP can be politically ruinous. There is therefore little incentive for his rivals to take on the former president, even if the goal of a campaign is for them to differentiate themselves. Only former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and former Texas Rep. Will Hurd have taken a comprehensive anti-Trump approach, with little initial success.
Lindsey Graham booed at Trump rally in her home state
— Another unknown of the 2024 campaign is whether the potential crush of criminal dangers facing Trump will destroy his campaign. Even with his support among GOP voters appearing to have softened in CNN’s post-impeachment poll, there is little sign it will affect his standing in the race. Trump is awaiting trial in the documents case and, separately, in Manhattan in a business accounting matter stemming from a hush money payment to an adult movie star. Indeed, some polls suggest the allegations are playing into the pre-cooked narrative of the former president being the victim of the Biden administration’s persecution, which has become a de facto truth for many GOP voters. Trump has pleaded not guilty in both cases and is awaiting word on whether he will be charged in two other investigations, both related to the fallout from the 2020 election.
— DeSantis’ troubles help shed light on Trump’s strong position. The Florida governor is highlighting his conservative record and using a searing culture war campaign to argue that he is not only more authentically conservative than Trump, but would be far better placed to implement these policies in the White House. On paper, DeSantis’ approach is logically sound. But his struggle to gain more traction shows how Trump’s appeal to the GOP is visceral, emotional and rooted as much in his disruptive, establishment-destroying personality as in ideology. “Right now, in the national polls, we are far behind. I’ll be the first to admit it,” Cortes, the spokesman for the pro-DeSantis super PAC, said during a Twitter Spaces event Sunday. “It’s an uphill battle.” Cortes, however, predicted DeSantis’ fortunes would improve when start getting your story out to more people in the campaign.
– In an example of the Florida governor’s hard-right strategy, a DeSantis campaign Twitter account marked the end of Pride Month by sharing a video criticizing the former president’s earlier pledge to protect rights LGBTQ. (Trump’s comments notably came about a month after a mass shooting at the Pulse nightclub in Florida that killed 49 people in 2016.) The video contrasts those promises with DeSantis’ record of restricting LGBTQ rights in Florida. Trump now says he would “ban” transgender athletes from women’s sports teams and ban gender-affirmation surgery for minors if he regains the White House. But the attack is both a sign of how DeSantis is trying to get to the right of Trump on issues like gender and immigration and how extreme the Republican primary campaign could become as candidates try to appeal to the base
‘I don’t understand the mentality’: Buttigieg reacts to the video shared by the DeSantis campaign
— The latest clash between Trump and DeSantis, however, points to a potential problem the Republican nominee could face in a general election. Trump already alienated critical moderate and suburban voters in swing states, both in the 2020 election and in the 2022 legislatures, when he pushed extreme candidates who denied the election. A hard-core conservative campaign could again scare away more centrist voters. Trump could be particularly vulnerable to this trend given that he is likely to be tried in one or more of the criminal cases against him in the midst of an election season. While this may reinforce the perception among GOP primary voters that he is a victim, it could remind other voters of the possibility of a convicted felon serving as president. Still, the question of electability has yet to become a serious concern in the Republican race, perhaps because of Trump’s high popularity in the party or because Biden, whose approval ratings are in a depressed territory that typically threatens first-term presidents, may be seen as vulnerable in 2024.
– Biden marked the Independence Day holiday at the White House by paying tribute to US troops. He has also begun organizing fundraising events designed to fill his 2024 war chest. Last week, the president launched a bid to promote “bidenomics,” arguing that it has broken a cycle of “trickle-down” policies that benefit the rich after trying to improve the working population with sweeping health care legislation, American industry. , and infrastructure projects. But Biden, like any incumbent, is vulnerable to any economic downturn or external events that could weaken his re-election bid. Vaccine skeptic Robert Kennedy’s surprisingly strong performance in Democratic primary polls — in what is largely an uncontested race — doesn’t appear to be a problem so far for Biden, despite polls showing most of the Democrats did not want him to run for a second. term Still, Kennedy’s appeal shows that distrust of Washington institutions, pundits and a political system that many voters fear has failed them is no longer reserved exclusively for Republican primary voters.
Paradoxically, however, since a Trump-Biden rematch is the one general election race most Americans don’t want, the early fireworks of the 2024 campaign are confirming both as the front-runners. likely from your party.
DeSantis or Trump? Hear what Republican voters in Iowa are saying
