LOS ANGELES (AP) – In 2024, control of the U.S. House could hinge on the congressional districts of a famously liberal state: California.
Command of the closely divided chamber will be up for grabs again next year, and leaders from both parties agree on this: The outcome in a series of contested California districts will be critical in determining the balance of power , after the state played a fundamental role. by securing the Republican hammer in 2022 and installing Rep. Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield as speaker.
The decisive fight for the House “will stretch across California,” predicts Rep. Pete Aguilar, the third-ranking Democrat in the chamber, who lives in Redlands, east of Los Angeles. North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson, who heads the House Republican campaign arm, is optimistic about gaining ground, even in a state known as a Democratic monolith.
“I think we can really pick up seats in California,” said Hudson, chairman of the Republican National Congressional Committee.
The 10 competitive House districts belie California’s reputation as a liberal protectorate: Democrats hold every statewide office, dominate the legislature and congressional delegation, and outnumber registered Republicans statewide by a staggering margin of 2 to 1.
Still, Republicans retain pockets of political power in Southern California’s suburbs and vast rural stretches of the state, including the Central Valley agricultural belt, sometimes called America’s salad bar for its abundant production agricultural
With the chamber split 222-212, with one vacancy, only a handful of seats separate the two parties.
Although the state’s March primary election is months away, the narrative for both parties has taken shape. Democrats warn of threats to abortion rights, immigration and rampant gun violence, while Republicans are blaming the party that dominates state politics for high taxes, inflation, troubling crime rates and a homelessness crisis out of control
California itself will also be on the ballot.
A national debate is underway, driven by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in California and Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in Florida, in which the state is alternately portrayed as a rising progressive nation-state or a witness to the ravages of the too liberal
Recent polls have found that two in three voters foresee bad economic times in the coming year, and its once-booming population of close to 40 million is now in decline.
“A lot will depend on the economy. The problem for the Democrats is that wages haven’t kept up with inflation. That may be changing, but if people have less money to spend next year, it’s going to be a big problem up and down the Democratic ticket,” said Claremont McKenna College political scientist Jack Pitney.
A number of California House districts have been volatile in recent elections, highlighting their importance to both parties as they seek control of the chamber. Democrats took seven seats from Republicans in 2018, then Republicans picked up four in 2020.
In the 2022 election, Republicans gained one seat, from 11 to 12, while Democrats dropped to 40 seats out of 42, after California lost a House seat in redistricting after the 2020 census. total, the state dropped from 53 to 52 districts.
Aguilar’s main targets are five districts that Biden won in 2020 that are now held by Republicans. “We’re going to take back the House,” Aguilar told reporters at a recent stop in Los Angeles.
Hudson said the GOP’s primary target is a closely divided coastal district in the former Republican stronghold of Orange County, which was vacated by Democratic Rep. Katie Porter, a prolific fundraiser who is running to replace Democratic United States Senator Dianne Feinstein.
Porter’s seat, Hudson said, is “probably our best pickup opportunity in the country.” Former lawmaker Scott Baugh, who narrowly lost to Porter in 2022 after spending an impressive $28 million to defend the seat, is the leading Republican in the race.
Hudson sees other ripe targets in the Central Valley and the 49th District, which lies between Orange and San Diego counties, where Democratic Rep. Mike Levin made a last-minute stop for Biden in 2022 to help him retain the seat
Levin expects another tight race. But she believes Democrats have focused on issues that concern their constituents, including infrastructure projects and protecting reproductive rights. He said Republicans, meanwhile, have gotten involved in matters irrelevant to voters, including the recent censure of a party-line vote by California Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff over comments he made several years ago on investigations into Donald Trump’s ties to Russia.
“This is a competitive political environment,” Levin said. “We take nothing for granted.”
The House contests will be overshadowed by the presidential campaign, but it’s not yet clear how much that will influence the races.
Aguilar sees former President Donald Trump as an asset to Democratic candidates, should he win the Republican nomination.
“I don’t think there could be a more extreme person on the Republican side than Donald Trump,” Aguilar said. “I think that will turn off moderate and independent voters, and I think that will lead to better Democratic turnout.”
President Joe Biden remains popular in California given his Democratic leanings, even as his national approval rating sits at 41 percent, according to The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. And Democratic turnout tends to increase in presidential election years.
Hudson said it’s difficult at this point to predict the influence of the presidential race on individual House contests. He noted that the GOP has attracted larger numbers of Latino and working-class voters, who tend to turn out heavily in presidential election years.
“Regardless of what happens at the top of the ticket, I think what you’re going to see is higher turnout,” he said.
In the first major election since the Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v. Wade decision, the abortion debate helped Democrats largely fend off an expected Republican surge in the 2022 midterm elections, when the party in power in the White House usually loses seats in Congress. .
This time, Biden has tried to energize Democrats by warning that Republicans are seeking a nationwide abortion ban. That threat needs to be reinforced with voters in California, Aguilar said, in a state where abortion rights are protected.
Hudson was dubious.
“I think voters are more concerned about … inflation, the economy, public safety,” he said.
Both parties pledge to spend millions of dollars to influence races and recruit candidates who fit the political makeup of the districts. The GOP picked up seats in 2020 with a surprisingly diverse slate of candidates for a party that remains predominantly white: two South Korean immigrants, both women, and two men the children of immigrant parents from Mexico and Portugal.
Those four districts remain targets for Democrats: Reps. Young Kim and Michelle Steel, anchored in Orange County, Rep. Mike Garcia in a district north of Los Angeles, and Rep. David Valadao in the Central Valley.
Democrats also want to pick Republican Rep. John Duarte in the Farm Belt, who won by less than 600 votes in 2022.
Hudson also sees Democratic Rep. Josh Harder in the Farm Belt as another potential gain — a district Newsom lost in his 2022 re-election bid.
“We know how to win Central Valley seats,” Hudson said.
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