CNN
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President Joe Biden’s emphatic statement from the Oval Office on Wednesday that the US “totally, totally, totally” supports Sweden’s bid to join NATO underscored the extraordinary, legacy-defining role it has played in challenging 21st century Russian expansionism.
However, as the war in Ukraine enters its second and bloody summer, its short-term trajectory, and the shape of the final resolution of the conflict, remain as uncertain as they were after the Russian invasion it stalled at the beginning of last year.
And several developments underline the still-high danger of the conflict, as Biden prepares to head to Lithuania next week for a hugely symbolic NATO summit in one of the Baltic states once forced to fold into the Soviet Union.
They include:
— A war of words between Ukraine and Russia over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of preparing a bomb attack. The back-and-forth raises fears of yet another alarming new dimension to a war already marred by alleged war crimes and terrible civilian suffering.
— Western officials, meanwhile, are still assessing the impact of the suppressed Wagner Group rebellion on President Vladimir Putin’s political standing, and whether it could push him to more extreme steps in a war that has been a disaster for Russia
— There is disappointment abroad that Ukraine’s long-awaited offensive has yet to deal a conflict-changing blow to Russian forces. Kiev insisted on Wednesday that it is gaining momentum “little by little”.
– Zelensky is turning up the heat on the West to do more to help Ukraine, issuing a stirring call in an exclusive CNN interview aired Wednesday for a full invitation to join NATO. The US says such a step is unlikely with Ukraine embroiled in a full-scale war with Russia, as it adheres to one of its own strategic goals: avoiding direct conflict with the nuclear superpower.
— The longer the war drags on without decisive progress on the battlefield, the more political pressure will mount on Ukraine’s arms and funding, especially in the United States, where next year’s presidential election is set to be a factor of critical importance.
In the interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett, Zelensky warned that he had intelligence that Russia was ready to carry out an attack on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. This followed a video address in which he said Moscow forces had placed “explosive-like objects” on the roofs of the facility.
In response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that the potential for “sabotage” by Ukraine at the plant was high. Given Russia’s past nuclear rhetoric and fog of war disinformation, many Western observers are likely to give Zelensky the benefit of the doubt. It is plausible that any explosion at the plant established by Moscow forces could later be claimed by the Kremlin as the result of a Ukrainian bombing in a false flag scenario.
Zelensky’s comments appeared to reflect the Ukrainian president’s concern that his Western allies and UN nuclear regulators are not taking the situation seriously enough. But the lack of specificity in his charges also shows how difficult it is for outsiders, at least those without access to intelligence, to know exactly what is happening in Ukraine. The International Atomic Energy Agency said in an update on Wednesday that there were no visible signs of mines or explosives at the nuclear plant, but that better access to key areas of the large facility was essential.
Repeated alarms about risks to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant have led to nightmare scenarios for months. Still, CNN’s Christian Edwards reported that the chances of an incident on the scale of the 1986 Chernobyl meltdown had been limited since the reactors had been placed in a cold shutdown mode longer for sure. But an explosion could still release a radioactive plume into the air and sow a hazard zone that could linger for decades.
That there is even a conversation about the relative scale of a possible nuclear incident potentially caused by deliberate action underscores the depravity of the Ukraine war, and how far an evolved Russian war goal it seems be devastating large areas of the country. even if it cannot be conquered.
Zelensky also used his CNN interview to discuss the surprising political events in Russia late last month, which ended when Belarus allegedly intervened to broker an end to a rebellion by Wagner Group mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin when they seemed to leave for Moscow. Western governments are grappling with the question of whether Putin’s political power base is weakened and he could rain even more vengeance on Ukraine as a distraction. However, there may also be an opportunity for Ukraine to take advantage of Moscow’s chaos as it moves forward with its battlefield offensive.
Zelensky argued in the interview that the uprising highlighted divisions within Russia over the war and an erosion of Russians’ positions. “We all see this process that shows that half of the Russian population is in serious doubt. All those stories that he controls everything – now they are weak stories,” Zelensky said of Putin. He predicted that the Russian leader would make great efforts to “consolidate his society”.
Senior US officials argued last month that Putin had been diminished by the rebellion. And the Republican chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio, told CNN’s Jake Tapper on Wednesday that the only thing the revolt had done was “obviously weaken Putin.” He also said that the fact that Prigozhin’s men had been able to march on Moscow suggested possible support among some Russian troops and that Putin should now fear cracks in his own army.
The prospect of Ukraine’s summer offensive, and the possibility that it could create significant breaches in Russian defenses and retake some of its occupied territory, had a powerful galvanizing political impact and helped push Western governments to increase its arms pipeline to Ukraine during the winter.
So any perception that it falls short of those high hopes and that Ukraine can’t ultimately win could also be a complicating factor as US and allied leaders nurture public support for their multibillion-dollar aid program. Zelensky admitted to Burnett that the counteroffensive had “slowed down” due to Russian mine laying and defensive lines that are three layers deep in some places.
He also seemed to suggest that he could not start the operation as soon as he wanted because of delays in obtaining more high-tech weapons and ammunition from Western donors. “I wanted our counteroffensive to start much earlier,” he said, so the Russians would have less time to prepare.
The Ukrainian military, however, said on Wednesday that it was advancing and pushing Russia out of previously captured positions near the village of Klishchiivka in the Bakhmut sector. And Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Wednesday that Kiev’s forces were “gradually advancing” and that Russian troops were not making any progress in the areas they were attacking.
Washington’s multibillion-dollar support for Ukraine and willingness to gradually ship increasingly sophisticated weapons systems have played a critical role in sustained resistance to the Russian invasion. But doubts are growing about the willingness of the Republican-controlled House to maintain the same level of support, with some pro-Donald Trump members arguing that Zelensky should be forced to discuss peace terms with Moscow.
Given Democratic support for the war, there appear to be enough votes to push a high level of funding through the House, although Washington risks stalling in a government shutdown in the fall and the winter amid intense clashes over spending that could slow Ukraine’s aid.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell insisted on Wednesday that continued US support for Ukraine was vital, particularly as it would send a message of resolve to another US adversary, Chinese President Xi Jinping. “There are some on both sides who argue that this is not meaningful to us, what is happening in Europe,” McConnell said at Fort Knox. “That’s not my point of view, that’s not the point of view of the majority of Republicans in the Senate and Democrats as well,” the Kentucky Republican said.
McConnell is a throwback to a more traditional, internationalist brand of Republicanism and rejects Trump’s “America First” approach. The former president has pledged to end the war within 24 hours if he wins another term in the White House in 2024, a likely sign that he would try to do so on favorable terms to Putin, whom he consistently flattered during his administration .
Zelensky knows that Washington’s support, from weapons and equipment to the diplomatic leadership Biden brings to the West, will help dictate Ukraine’s fate. In an emotional moment in his interview with Burnett, he asked Biden to welcome his country to NATO.
And he warned: “Without US help, it will become a frozen conflict. With the help of the US, we will reoccupy our territory.”
