Hargeisa, Somaliland – This year has not been the best for Somaliland’s international reputation.
After breaking away from Somalia in 1991, the de facto independent country cultivated an image as “Oasis of Stability” in the Horn of Africa, carrying out disarmament and democratic elections despite not having international recognition.
But presidential elections scheduled for last year were delayed, and in February, long-standing clan tensions erupted in fighting around the town of Las Anod (Laascaanood) that left dozens dead and injured and caused tens of thousands of civilians to flee.
The United Nations has called for an investigation into the deaths, while the United States has expressed concern about “democratic backsliding”.
But Taiwan, another self-governing territory without international recognition, has stood by Somaliland.
“I commented to my American colleagues: Somaliland is a nascent democracy. They need to be given time to grow,” Taiwan’s representative to Somaliland Allen C Lou told Al Jazeera in an interview.
After losing multiple formal allies with China in recent years, Taiwan surprised observers by announcing “highly official relations” with Somaliland in 2020.
Since then, Taipei has established a modest presence in the territory, with several dozen individuals spread across the representative office, technical mission, medical mission and a newly established outpost of Taiwan’s state oil company CPC.
Taiwan’s representative to Somaliland, Allen Lou, says Somaliland needs time to grow its democracy [Anthony Kao/Al Jazeera]
In Lou’s view, Somaliland’s unique electoral system (which mandates three national parties as a check on clan rivalries) and the inability to properly register voters in Las Anod create practical challenges that Somaliland needs time to address. Lou also quotes an article of the American Enterprise Institute to suggest that China is interfering in Las Anods, although researchers with extensive experience in the region doubt these claims.
These sentiments align closely with the Somaliland government’s position.
“In Somaliland, we elect our presidents. But we also elect our parties [beforehand]. It is not easy to have so many choices. Elections are expensive and we also have to spend money to protect our country from external threats,” said Somaliland’s representative in Taiwan, Mohammed Hagi. “While it is a weakness that we do not have elections on time, the reasons are technical and economic, not because our politicians don’t want it.Apart from Taiwan [which has provided equipment like iris scanners]nor do we receive anything from other countries to help with the elections”.
It is not surprising that Taiwan’s position coincides so closely with that of Somaliland, given that Taipei’s diplomatic presence depends on Somaliland’s de facto independence.
“Compared to other countries with diplomatic offices in Somaliland, such as the [United Kingdom]Denmark or [United Arab Emirates] – Taiwan has much more specific and politically important bilateral relations based on a shared status as de facto states,” Jethro Norman, a researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies focusing on conflict and humanitarianism, told Al Jazeera in East Africa. “Relations between the two are both an act of solidarity and a way of enacting sovereignty in the absence of international recognition.”
According to Norman, the Las Anod conflict threatens to unravel the narrative of Somaliland as an independent state.
The eastern regions of Somaliland, including Las Anod, contain clans that prefer to be part of Somalia rather than Somaliland. Resolving the conflict may require Somalia’s government to compromise its sovereignty, which could also jeopardize ties with Taiwan, since Somalia recognizes China.
US-China rivalry
There is a lot at stake for Taiwan.
Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi, center, at Independence Day 2023 celebrations [Anthony Kao/Al Jazeera]
The relationship gives the island a second formal access point to Africa (after Eswatini), allowing it to support overseas Taiwanese in East Africa, counter China’s military presence in neighboring Djibouti and oversee vital trade routes.
“John Bolton said like, if China [expands its] The military presence in Djibouti, the balance of power in the Horn of Africa, which straddles major sea routes, will shift in favor of China,” Lou said. “Together with Somaliland, we secure these routes. We are trying to prevent the Red Sea from becoming China.”
Although Taiwan does not have formal diplomatic relations with the United States, it does have a close relationship with Washington, which is required by law to provide the self-ruled island with the means to defend itself. The Taiwan Policy Act that was passed in late 2022 further strengthened the diplomatic and security partnership.
Ties have grown closer as Beijing has increased pressure on the government of President Tsai Ing-wen, who Beijing considers a “secessionist” who wants independence but argues that the Taiwanese people should be the ones to decide the his future
Rising cross-strait tension has also fueled growing suspicion in the US about China’s economic and political ambitions.
Framing the importance of Somaliland in the context of these complex relationships has helped Somaliland’s representative in Washington, Bashir Goth.
“People in Washington pay attention to us when they know that we are protecting ourselves against Chinese influence in the region and we have relations with Taiwan,” Goth told Al Jazeera.
Goth says Somaliland’s engagement with Taiwan helped pave the way for the territory’s president to visit Washington last March and boost Somaliland’s efforts for U.S. recognition.
Around the time of the visit, three US senators presented the Somaliland Association Actwhich would have established de facto relations between Somaliland and the US in a manner similar to the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979which obligates the United States to “preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people of Taiwan.”
Although the bill was shelved, some of its provisions on reporting to Congress on Somaliland cooperation were passed as part of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2023. From then, officials from the State Department and the US Agency for International Development (USAID) have visited Somaliland government officials and the Taiwan Representative Office in Somaliland. The US military also inspected the port of Berbera as part of preparations for its 2023 Justified Agreement training exercise.
However, US engagement with Somaliland and Somaliland’s push for de facto recognition from Washington has become more constrained since the violence in February.
“Our friends in Congress are willing to revise the Somaliland Association Act, but we have to wait for more appropriate circumstances, maybe after we hold elections in Somaliland,” Goth said.
Economic needs
Beyond political recognition, Taiwan and Somaliland also have complementary economic interests.
Taiwan, the world’s top semiconductor maker, is desperate for energy and to reduce its need for rare earths from China, while Somaliland wants foreign investment in an economy otherwise fueled by remittances and subsistence agriculture.
Taiwan has provided key aid to Somaliland, including fire engines [Anthony Kao/Al Jazeera]
A significant boost to economic relations between Somaliland and Taiwan came in January when the British-Turkish firm Genel Energy formally announced the discovery of oil in Somaliland, after 11 years of exploration. Taiwan’s CPC has a 49 percent stake in the block where the oil was discovered, and according to Lou, CPC expects to start drilling a well in the fourth quarter of this year.
The Taiwanese may have to wait years for oil shipments from Somaliland, however, sufficient infrastructure to transport oil to the port of Berbera does not yet exist. As a precedent, the CPC discovered oil in Chad in 2009, after a brief period of Chad-Taiwan ties. However, Chadian oil did not reach Taiwan until December 2020.
Apart from CPC, no other Taiwanese company has begun operations in Somaliland, although the representative offices of the two countries have sponsored trade fairs and shepherd agreements around mineral exploration.
Hagi remains optimistic.
“Taiwan was closed for the first 2.5 years of our relationship due to COVID, which made it difficult [Taiwanese] companies’ ability to go abroad,” he said. “But we have good relations with TAITRA (a Taiwanese non-profit trade promotion body) and also business groups such as the Taiwan-Africa Business Association. In the next 10 years, many good things will happen between our two countries.”
Of course, it is difficult to predict what Somaliland-Taiwan ties will look like in the next decade.
On the surface, at least, they do not appear under as much threat from China as those between Taiwan and its remaining formal allies.
“We are open to establishing relations with all countries: Taiwan, China, Russia and the US. But we want to do so without conditions; we will not accept a dictate to stop relations with Taiwan,” Hagi said.
Indeed, unusually for an East African country, China’s presence in Somaliland seems almost invisible.
During a week in Somaliland, Al Jazeera saw no Chinese-operated businesses and encountered no Chinese except for two middle-aged men traveling on an Ethiopian Airlines flight out of Somaliland’s de facto capital, Hargeisa , and were reluctant to explain their activities.
Somalilanders in business and political circles generally shared fairly warm feelings towards Taiwan, although whether the general population shares these feelings, or is even aware of the relationship with Taiwan, is another matter.
Soldiers on parade during Somaliland Independence Day celebrations in March [Anthony Kao/Al Jazeera]
Official skepticism among Somaliland politicians towards Taiwan also remains rare, although former Waddani Party chairman, who won Somaliland’s last parliamentary vote and has a competitive shot at the presidency should an election be held , questioned the wisdom of ties with Taiwan in 2021.
Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi, the former speaker of Somaliland’s House of Representatives, called for improved ties with Beijing, arguing that recognition requires the support of “a government that is a member of the United Nations Security Council with the power of veto” and that Beijing was also dedicated to “bringing great development to the region”.
Analysts say the upcoming election could fuel similar arguments.
“[Since] President Waddani’s 2021 speech, there have been no notable public statements by political figures questioning the relationship with Taiwan,” said Mohamed Farah, an expert on great power competition in East Africa and director of the Academy for at Peace and Development, a Hargeisa-based think tank. “But when elections are scheduled and the parties publish their manifestos, maybe there will be more opinions.”
For now, however, Somaliland and Taiwan can savor their still-close ties in the hope that US attention and mutual investment will come together, before political circumstances change at home and abroad.
